I agree about Kolb--I think he's little better than Alex Smith. Of course, maybe if Smith hadn't been saddled with possibly the worst head coach in the history of the NFL (Singletary), he wouldn't have looked so mediocre. He looked ok at the very end of the season.

SF needs to concentrate on building up their defense. Willis is one of the top 2 ILBs in the game, and there are a few decent pieces. If they can land Patrick Peterson, they'll go a long way toward achieving the type of defense that they're capable of. If not, trade down, accumulate more draft picks, and get Cameron Heyward or Stephen Paea.

So which way are people leaning on this Sunday's match-up? (Personally I'm going with the Packers.) And are you planning on joining 100 million of your fellow Americans in watching the game? If so..where? At home alone, at a party, at a bar? (I'm making chili and taking it to a friend's party.)

I think I'm leaning towards the Steelers. Experience, defense, and Ben's knack for making big plays in big situations give them the edge. Of course, if Rodgers is on, the Pack can overcome all of that. I think it's gonna be a great game.

My girlfriend and I are having a party for the game. We're thinking somewhere around 15 people are coming, so it isn't huge, but feeding all those people is going to be sort of expensive. I'm buying some beer, but since we're providing all the food, I'm telling them to bring their own stuff. Alcohol is way to expensive to foot the bill for 15 people.

Indubitably. If I was in the area I'd swing by with 24 quality bottles of something. Alas.

As for the game, the week before the championships my feeling was that the Packers would win the Super Bowl if they got in it, because they really are a dome team that happens to play in Green Bay. That said, it does seem like people are annointing Rodgers a little bit early, and this has the potential to be one of those Super Bowls where everyone takes the sexier pick over the proven winners.

That said...I have to go with my gut (and my original Super Bowl pick in September, actually: I like the Pack. I'm resisting/ignoring the fact that so many others like them (I tend to be contrarian by nature) because I really do think there defense can be very good, Rodgers can be very hot, and for me the swing is the unhealthy O-Line of the Steelers. Big Ben will make a couple plays despite this, and the Steelers D will certainly give Rodgers trouble, but he really just has too many weapons -- a guy like Jordy Nelson, while relatively unknown, would be an elite #2 WR on almost any other team, and he might not even be their 3rd best option. Plus, I think Donald Driver beats Hines Ward in the old-receiver who might still have a huge play in them battle.

We'll save those 24 quality bottles for whenever the Reelviews meetup occurs. We'll toast to Amare never winning an MVP or NBA title.

At the beginning of the year I thought Green Bay had a chance to be the best team in the NFC. After all the injuries, I thought they were done halfway through the season. It's cool to see them fight through all that when many teams use injuries as an excuse (even though every team in the NFL has to deal with them). Rodgers is probably a better overall QB than Big Ben, but Ben almost always makes plays at the end of games.

I also think Mendenhall could have a huge game. The Packers' strength defensively isn't against the run, and Mendenhall can rack up yards if he has the holes. Like you said, the Steelers' o-line is banged up, so that could be an interesting subplot.

Jordy Nelson, the white speedster from Kansas State! Fast white guys that play WR are always favorites of mine. I was always a big Tim Dwight fan.

Can you imagine how good the Packers passing offense would be if Finley didn't go down for the year? They'd be really difficult to stop.

Packers win! It's going to be a long 7 months to wait for the next season...providing they can avoid lock out.

I do wonder why teams are continually illogical and insist on reaching for QBs with the number one overall pick. If Carolina picks Cam Newton (or Blaine Gabbert), they will be complete, utter morons. Newton is a mix of Vince Young and JaMarcus Russell, with many of the worst traits of both. Gabbert is likely the next Cade McDown.

Teams are so stupid. So, so stupid. Patrick Peterson is widely considered to be perhaps the top overall talent and yet he won't go in the top 4. Any logical exploration would reveal that it's actually better to trade down and hoard draft picks--maximize your chances in the late 1st round through the 5th round. You will draft some busts. And if you get enough chances, you will likely find a star player at a position--but it might be in round 3 or 4, not round 1.

This is going to be a bad draft for QBs. Beyond the "top" 2, you have Ryan Mallet, who is another Ryan Leaf, Jake Locker, who is another Kordell Stewart, and a bunch of guys who will never sniff a starting position.

Jets are takin the Bowl in '11

I understand what you're saying here, and I don't think Newton or Gabbert should go #1 overall, but the reason teams continuously reach for a QB #1 overall is because the easiest route to a SB championship is to have a franchise QB. Look at the last 15-20 Super Bowl winners. Every winner, with the exception of 2, had what would be considered a franchise quarterback helming their team. Those two exceptions, the Ravens in 2001, and the Bucs in 2003, had 2 tremendous defenses. That Ravens defense was one of the best ever. It's just a lot more difficult to win without a franchise QB, so teams are willing to reach for guys who might not deserve such a lofty draft status in the hopes that they become "the guy".

Also, trading down is always a sound strategy, but it isn't always a possibility. There has to be a team willing to trade up for a player they want, and that isn't always the case. That's been especially true the last few years since there's no rookie wage scale and guys drafted towards the top of the draft (the most likely place where a team will be trading down) are making a ridiculous sum of money. It's tough to justify trading multiple picks and investing so much cap space in an unproven guy. That's putting a whole lot of eggs into one basket. The more sound strategy is to hang on to those picks and spread that money around to multiple players.

Sure, it's harder to win a Superbowl without a franchise QB but it is possible--get a star linebacker and a star safety. Virtually every winner of the last ten or fifteen superbowls has had a safety playing a huge role in it. The Chiefs drafted their star safety last year, but they need a high caliber inside linebacker. if they get that, they can definitely win a superbowl with that roster.

With the Panthers, they have a star linebacker. If they could trade down a few picks and nab Patrick Patterson, they'd have a star in the backfield. Then take a linebacker in the second round to complement Beason (high quality linebackers often reside in round 2). Then add some offensive linemen in the midrounds, particularly with the draft picks that you've added.

I think you're undervaluing the importance of the quarterback position here a bit. It's incredibly rare for a team to maintain success over multiple seasons without good QB play. It's easily the most important position in sports. Yes, it is possible to win without a franchise QB, but, when given the choice, every single team in the NFL would take their chances with a very good team with a franchise QB rather than a great team without one. That's just how football works.

For instance, take the Panthers. Should they do what you suggest, they'll still have Jimmy Claussen or some random, old veteran they sign playing QB. I don't care how good of a team you have around either of those guys, you aren't winning anything. You'll barely be competitive. Also, there's no consensus #1 pick this year, so it'll be really difficult to trade down with anyone. There's about 4-5 guys who are worthy of going #1 (not counting the QBs, they aren't worthy). Why would another top 5 team trade up to #1 (you almost never see a team outside of the top 5 talk about jumping up to #1 because you just have to give up waaaaaay too much) when the guy they want has a pretty good chance of still being there when they pick? And none of this even gets into the labor situation surrounding the draft this year, which complicates any trades even further.

I think it's fair to call Carolina stupid if they take Newton (which it seems like they want to). However, I think faulting them for not trading down is a bit unfair because it likely isn't an option. Teams usually trade up that high to take a QB (further proof of how important the position is), and there isn't one worth trading up for this season. And if there was, Carolina would be taking him #1 overall anyway.

That's the take-home point here.

I agree with the consensus that Peterson is the most sure-thing overall prospect...but good/great CBs and return men are a dime a dozen, and they don't generally have lengthy dominance. If a team thinks Peterson is Deion Sanders, okay, he can go top 3. Otherwise no. So I agree with you if that's the need they want to fill that they have to trade down, even at the risk of losing Peterson. He's simply not worth the pick or the money they'll have to pay that pick.

The draft in any sport is a crapshoot. We know this. Sometimes it works out. I don't think we're getting a great QB in this draft either -- but let's be honest, none of us would have been on here claiming Tom Brady was going to be a great pro back in the day either. Maybe Gabbert will come around. Maybe Newton will figure out how to use his gifts and be great. Do I think either is likely? No. But again, if it's a weak draft (and it is)...I mean, are you really moving forward with Clausen at QB?

Here's my calculation: No matter who Carolina picks this year, they are going to suck. We know this. So who cares who plays QB? If Clausen plays, you win 2 or 3 games, and your defense plays better because you drafted wisely. If you trade for Kevin Kolb, maybe it's 4 or 5 games. If you draft one of those rookies, they end up playing midway through the season, sucking, and you have no support around them. Wait till next year, when no matter what you will have a high draft pick. Maybe a QB will be on the board who won't totally suck as a pro. Or maybe you wait one more year and stock up more. Maybe you'll get lucky and land a starting QB in the midrounds--a Matt Schaub (who can definitely be a superbowl winning QB). Either way, you'll move yourself into being a playoff contender, even with Jimmy Clausen (hello Rex Grossman) if you build up a good defense.

You have good points, certainly, and I don't disagree in principle. Obviously scouts and the team think bigger-picture than we do, and QBs who may or many not be available next year should certainly be a factor. If they think, say, Gabbert is a better prospect than anyone they project for next year, that's a factor. Similarly, if they think that SOMEONE will be a better QB prospect than this crop of guys, that might be good reason to hold off.

I think it would be beyond stupid to trade for Kolb.

I don't think the Grossman argument is quite fair because of how good that D was that year. If EVERYTHING goes right the Panthers are at least 3 years away from anything approaching that level of D.

This has been talked about a lot but I think it's true: with the rule changes (and more to come), you absolutely need an extremely good QB to win. I don't think guys like Shaub are in that tier. Not that he sucks, but he hasn't shown an ability to take over a meaningful game. People bring up Dilfer, but that's an extremely rare exception (and again, he was paired with a historically great defense and went against Kerry Fuckin' Collins in the Super Bowl). You need a great QB to win it all.

I think firefly is right on the nose regarding Carolina long term. The thing is, it's damn near impossible to predict the NFL from year-to-year. Carolina thought they were set because they had the #1 pick and Stanford QB Andrew Luck (some have called him the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning) was going to enter the draft. Then Luck went back to school and they were screwed. Luck is certainly a better prospect than either Newton or Gabbert, but he's likely going #1 next year, and there's no way Carolina can be sure they'll get the top pick again. In fact, it's highly unlikely even though they aren't going to be any good this year no matter what. I'm not advocating them drafting a QB at #1. In fact, they shouldn't. They won 2 games. They need talent virtually everywhere on the field. They aren't just a QB away from contending. They should take whoever their front office thinks is the best individual player in the draft. That said, I understand the willingness to reach for a QB, and think a lot of other teams in their spot would do that same thing.

As an Eagles fan, I can only hope and pray some team is stupid enough to give up a first round pick for Kolb. He's an ok QB, but he isn't a franchise guy and never will be. I just hope we take advantage of the situation and capitalize while he has value. The lockout is killing us on that front because trades can't be made.

I don't put Schaub anywhere near the elite level. He's a solid QB, and puts up good numbers, but he has a terrible habit of turning the ball over at the end of games. He's solid because he can keep his team in games with a horrid defense, but he doesn't seem capable of going out and putting together big drives when they're needed. That's something that would be an issue no matter how good the team around him was, so I can't place him with the big guns right now. He could certainly lead a team to the playoffs, but I can't say you could win a SB with him.

I don't want to hype Schaub too much; he has his limitations as a player and his tendency to commit turnovers late in games is chief among them. But do you really think that Eli Manning is better than him? We've covered Dilfer and Johnson, very average NFL QBs elevated by incredible defenses. But Eli is an above average QB, not an elite one, and he has many of the same faults as Schaub. So I'd say that if Manning can win a Superbowl, then Schaub can. Moreover, look at some of the QBs who reached the Superbowl and nearly won it: Jake Delhomme, Matt Hasselback, Kerry Collins. Yeah, they still lost, but it wasn't like they lost the game for their teams. That's another reason why I reject this insane obsession with landing the top ranked QB no matter how mediocre the class is. If the Raiders had not fallen for that trap, they'd have drafted Calvin Johnson or Joe Thomas, and would either have a franchise receiver or tackle.

You're right about Luck: barring injury, he's as close to a lock on the number 1 spot as you could possibly have. And the Panthers are very unlikely to get that pick. But tbh, the next five guys are likely to be at least as good as Gabbert or Newton. This truly is a lackluster QB class.

If I'm the Panthers, I sign Bruce Gradkowski and let him start. He has substantial physical limitations, but he's a leader in the huddle and he's much better than Jimmy Clausen. Also, he'll probably come cheap. Carolina is and ought to remain fundamentally a run-based team, anyway. If you put Gradkowski in a west coast system, he could be a poor man's Jeff Garcia.

I think the owners are taking a step in the right direction with this new proposal. Sure, they shot themselves in the foot by giving away large amounts of cash to unproven talent, but by emulating the NBA Rookie Salary Cap, they can get out of the business of giving the likes of JaMarcus Russell $50 million guaranteed and potentially setting their franchise back years. I imagine agents wouldn't be too happy about this now.


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/f ... ?eref=sihp

I'm not a big Eli fan either, but he's better than Schaub. Schaub is a numbers guy that doesn't translate to wins. He's blessed with a great system and the best WR game. He's a good QB, but he just isn't a guy teams are scared of. If he has the ball at the end of the game (which is what separates good from great), he rarely comes through.

Kerry Collins went 15/39 for slightly over 100 yards with 4 INTs in his Super Bowl appearance. I think it's fair to say he played a rather large part in the Giants losing that one.



I agree with all of this. Again, I don't think Carolina should take a QB at #1. I just understand where the rationale comes from.



That isn't a bad idea, but it would be pretty surprising for them to give up on Claussen so quick. They used a second round pick on him last year, and it's rare for such a valuable pick (especially at QB) to not get multiple chances. Plus, this year is particularly diffcult because of the lockout. They can't sign anyone right now, and who knows how late it will be until they are able. It's likely whoever they sign won't have a lot of time to learn a new offense. That will actually be a team-wide problem because they have a new coach who will be installing an entirely new system. A shortened training camp would really hurt the Panthers (and other teams with new coaches).



That's a solid article. They absolutely need some kind of rookie wage scale. Not only is it unfair to established players, but it kills a team when a high pick busts much more than it should. It's insane that a guy like JaMarcus Russell has as much guaranteed money as a handful of Pro Bowlers combined.

I'm still hoping the NFLPA doesn't cave on an 18 game season. I just can't get over Goodell making such a huge midseason issue over player safety and then turning around and calling for a longer season with a straight face. It makes me hate the sport a little bit.

I have to imagine the NFLPA would jump for joy with this proposal. I can't imagine veterans, especially those representing against the owners, would have issues with this. I do think the proposal for five years needs to be cut back to three or so, seeing as how players' careers might never reach the 5 year mark.

- BUMP -


I will start this off by saying, yes, I want Alex Smith to die. No, really. This is the only way out. I now officially know how every wife in a horrible marriage has ever felt like. "I want the next time I see your face to be the article in the paper about how I poisoned and mutilated you. Night, hon."

Damn right. Finish him off with the shovel from 'Cabin Fever'. I hate! I hate!