This isn't the film you want to win, but what you think it will end up being.

The Academy nommed the shit out of The King's Speech this year. I don't have my horoscope or my goat's innards on hand, so the number of noms is my arbitrary criterion for this year.

King's Speech, everyone has a hard-on for some movie Award Season and this is that movie.

I think you guys' logic is pretty flawed. Remember when Benjamin Button got 13 nominations? Did anyone think it was going to win that year? No. And why will The King's Speech? It hasn't won anything this year for Best Film. Not even the Phoenix Film Critics Society Award. So why will it win the Oscar?

Recall that I said "horoscope," "goat innards," and "arbitrary," which ought to say something about the lengths I went to in my calculations.

In reality, I don't know or care what retarded voodoo drives the Academy to make its choices. Aside from those who develop complex predictive algorithms for their picks, I feel that my reasoning is as good as anybody's.

It won the PGA, which is enough to make most prognosticators at the very least pause.

You're totally right Pedro, I'm sorry.

Another vote for Speak, King. Remember the video game King's Quest? Probably the first video game I ever played, stunning EGA graphics. The movie version, surrounding Sir Graham's little-known speech impediment, feels like it'll take home the prize.

I'm going with The Social Network; it may not have as many nominations as The King's Speech but it has taken home the top prize at most of the awards ceremonies it has competed in so far (including the Golden Globes, which is usually the biggest indicator of which films will win big at the Oscars) so that's where I'm putting my vote.

^ really? I wasn't aware that the Globes were a good indicator of Oscar winners. Pedro cites the PGA, and apparently Tiger Woods and co. have chosen the right Best Picture nominee in 11 of 16 years. Still, I agree with your choice Oafie. I'm thinking this is one of the rare years that the Best Pictures don't align.

I've tied the score at 5 by going with The Social Network. It just feels like the Academy is ready to splooge all over Fincher. That's really my only reasoning.

I guess everyone feels this is a 2 horse race because the only other votes are for The King's Speech. I feel the same way. I think one of the two is definitely going to win. Both are equally good movies, though neither is great or even a slight risk for their filmmakers. I prefer to award successful ambition.

That seems a bit of an arbitrary decider. I don't see there being much "risky" about Chinatown, with the possible exception of the ending, but I think it's a great film

I definitely think Chinatown was a risk in 1974. It's a revisionist take on what was then a dead genre. It ended great for all involved, but it was certainly a risky, ambitious project.

This year ambition happens to be the decider because I haven't seen a truly great film that was released in 2010. So, among all the good to very good films I've seen (meaning: films that are pretty even in terms of quality), I choose to use ambition to give one the nod over the other. Why? Because I think pulling off a good to very good ambitious film, like Black Swan or 127 Hours, is more difficult to do than telling a much safer, audience-friendly story, like The Social Network or The King's Speech. Toy Story 3 isn't risky, but I still think it's a damn good film. I'm not saying all great movies have to be ambitious.

However, even if I always used ambition as a decider, I don't see how it could be called arbitrary. If that was something I really valued above all else, then what's wrong with using that as the ultimate factor for determining quality? If you had said choosing The Social Network because I think the Academy is ready to splooge all over Fincher was arbitrary, then that would be fine. It is. Using ambition as a criteria of quality is not.

Well first of all, plenty of ambitious movies are awful, awful pieces of cinema. Freddy Got Fingered is outre and ambitious to the nth degree, for example. And that doesn't make it any good. I think using ambition as a deciding factor rather than a beginning one makes more sense, which you seem to be saying in your response, so we're good

The Social Network. King's Speech will pick up Actor and may get supporting actor too. Social Network is a bigger movie in terms of contemporary relevance.

King's Speech won the SAG equivalent...maybe I came out too strong

I think it'll be the King's Speech.

That said, I'd love to see ANYTHING else, other than the dreadful The Kids are All Right, pull the upset over King's/Social Network.

It's pretty clear to me that The King's Speech is going to win. No film has ever lost after winning the DGA, PGA, and SAG awards... except Apollo 13. However, that film didn't have a Best Director nomination.

Yeah. First time for everything, though, right? I agree this doesn't seem like the year, but it'll happen at some point.

I thought the revisionist history would bite the King's Speech more than it has, but apparently that's not the case.

The would-be controversy over The King's Speech was laughable. News media organizations are getting to the point where they cook up these scandals with the expectation that they'll naturally find an audience. Perhaps it's a bigger deal in the U.K., but nobody on this side of the pond gives a crap.