Discussion of movies and ReelThoughts topics

It is currently Fri Aug 22, 2014 12:21 pm




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 11 posts ] 
Market Tips 
Author Message
Post Market Tips
A lot of the forum members are of the "starving college student" vein and don't have a lot of cash lying around. Others are a little further along in their careers and may have some extra money stashed away in the market. I know there's probably more financial boards on the web than there are movie boards, but since this is a little bit tighter of a community, I thought I'd see if anyone would like to share some investing tips with the forum.

I have been invested in the market since I was a little kid when my dad bought all of us shares of Briggs & Stratton at an early age. I didn't really start investing on my own (making my own picks) until I was around 30, when I threw $3000 at AT&T and in month it was up to $3300. I was amazed that I'd made $300 for basically doing nothing. (Well...I "took on risk", but otherwise I did nothing.)

Later that year I had the luckiest score in my life after I sold my AT&T stock. I bought stock in troubled publisher Golden Books for, like, 16 cents a share. It languished for a month or 2, and then at some cocktail party, Michael Eisner (CEO of Disney) threw out some off-handed comment that Golden Books was one of 2 or 3 companies they were looking at as a takeover. In the next few days, the stock price flew up past a dollar and beyond. My $3000 turned into $21,000 and I sold out. (Disney never did buy Golden Books and they eventually went through bankruptcy restructuring.)

My big score was around 1999. I had some good picks and I took my share of lumps in the 2000's...it's not all been wine and roses. Overall I trade in "long" positions of individual stocks. I don't short sell and I don't play with options. I leave mutual funds for my retirement accounts.

So today I have 3 stocks for your consideration that I am either invested in or have been recommended to me. If you have any of your own tips, please feel free to share. So without further adieu:

1) China Northeast Petroleum (NEP). A Chinese oil producer that has been on the AMEX exchange for about a year. Last Summer they went through a trade halt for a couple of months due to some inccorrect accounting processes and they had to restate a year's worth of reports. They have been profitable and continue to generate cash, though they lease their wells and properties and there's questions whether they can increase their lease capacity.

Currently trading around $6 per share.
Disclosure: I own this stock and plan to hold until it gets to at least $10-$11

2) Cisco Systems (CSCO). Manufacturer of switches and routers for internet traffic. Their price took a hit in Q3 2010 when the Chairman warned of some cloudy quarters ahead due to soft goverment purchases. Recently highlighted as one of the Tech stocks for 2011 in Smart Money Magazine.

With increased net traffic due to streaming media (NetFlix, YouTube, etc.) and smart phone content, the internet backbone’s going to need upgrading. Also talk of the near $40 bln in cash Cisco’s sitting on and that they may institute a 1-2% dividend this year.

Currently trading around $21 per share.
Disclosure: I recently bought shares and I expect the stock to rebound to it's mid-2010 levels of $24-$25 per share this year. My plan is to hold for the long term.

3) My sister retired from work (at around age 38) and found it easier to make money trading stocks. She makes more in capital gains than I do in salary every year. She is currently looking at China MediaExpress Holdings (CCME). They make money by putting advertising TV screens on buses in China. They have been growing revenues steadily over the last year with no debt.

Currently trading around $16.30 per share.
Disclosure: I do not have plans to buy this stock as I already have enough exposure in China via NEP. Sis has bought in and is thinking the price could go as high as $25 this year.

-----

So what're your hot tips for 2011?


Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:20 am
Post Re: Market Tips
I know next to nothing about this. My cousin trades and I give him money to work with and he's trustworthy so....it's nice to have someone that you can trust doing this for you. The main point that I know he emphasizes is investing internationally. He once told me that over 90% of the action is outside of the US. He's made me over 30,000 in the last 6-7 years so...I'm going to keep him around. :)


Fri Jan 07, 2011 7:59 pm
Post Re: Market Tips
Moovy1 wrote:
He's made me over 30,000 in the last 6-7 years so...I'm going to keep him around.


That, my friend, is a lot of movie tickets.


Sat Jan 08, 2011 12:15 am
Post Re: Market Tips
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRea0YwW ... re=related


Sat Jan 08, 2011 2:43 am
Critic
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2009 9:35 am
Posts: 7374
Location: Easton, MD
Post Re: Market Tips
My tips? Invest in varied index funds and keep your money there for 30 years. You essentially can't lose and will guarantee yourself money in retirement

_________________
I'm lithe and fierce as a tiger


Sat Jan 08, 2011 11:42 am
Profile
Post Re: Market Tips
Apple

Ride it all the way to $450

Rob


Sun Jan 09, 2011 12:32 am
Post Re: Market Tips
Well, well, well...it's been a year, let's see how Johnny's picks fared in 2011! Hmmm...not so good.

johnny larue wrote:
1) China Northeast Petroleum (NEP). A Chinese oil producer that has been on the AMEX exchange for about a year. Last Summer they went through a trade halt for a couple of months due to some inccorrect accounting processes and they had to restate a year's worth of reports. They have been profitable and continue to generate cash, though they lease their wells and properties and there's questions whether they can increase their lease capacity.

Currently trading around $6 per share.
Disclosure: I own this stock and plan to hold until it gets to at least $10-$11


There was a large backlash in the Chinese RTO sector last Spring. A successful short attack in the form of a blogger hit piece sank this company's share price to below 2 bucks. Currently trading around 2 and a quarter, their fundamentals have not changed and they have increased their oil leases in new and existing oil fields. Expect this to be a great investment long term, but not for the faint of heart.

johnny larue wrote:
2) Cisco Systems (CSCO). Manufacturer of switches and routers for internet traffic. Their price took a hit in Q3 2010 when the Chairman warned of some cloudy quarters ahead due to soft goverment purchases. Recently highlighted as one of the Tech stocks for 2011 in Smart Money Magazine.

With increased net traffic due to streaming media (NetFlix, YouTube, etc.) and smart phone content, the internet backbone’s going to need upgrading. Also talk of the near $40 bln in cash Cisco’s sitting on and that they may institute a 1-2% dividend this year.

Currently trading around $21 per share.
Disclosure: I recently bought shares and I expect the stock to rebound to it's mid-2010 levels of $24-$25 per share this year. My plan is to hold for the long term.

I got knuckled in the head on this one down to 17 bucks a share before I dumped it. Smart Money (the source of this pick) recently published their year end review and noted their bad pick. The company is smack dab in the middle of "cloud computing", but some money managers have lost faith in Cisco's management team. Currently trading around 19...no plans to return to it.

johnny larue wrote:
3) My sister retired from work (at around age 38) and found it easier to make money trading stocks. She makes more in capital gains than I do in salary every year. She is currently looking at China MediaExpress Holdings (CCME). They make money by putting advertising TV screens on buses in China. They have been growing revenues steadily over the last year with no debt.

Currently trading around $16.30 per share.
Disclosure: I do not have plans to buy this stock as I already have enough exposure in China via NEP. Sis has bought in and is thinking the price could go as high as $25 this year.


This one was the poster child for the dangers of investing in China. Short attacks abounded in the Spring and the company never rebounded. I think this stock eventually went to worthless; whether it was a complete scam from the get-go, I do not know. My sister got out at the first hint of scandal in the 14 dollar range.

New picks for 2012 (hey...they ain't costing you anything, you get what you pay for)

1) Provident Energy (PVX) This has been a great stock for me for about 3 or 4 years. It's a Candian energy company and a steady dividend payer that has a monthly payout yielding over 5%. I bought $1000 worth of this for my son 2 years ago when the stock got hammered and it has since tripled in value. The price recently shot up 20% because they are being bought out by another Canadian company, Pembina. The combined entity will still be paying 5+% monthly dividend, but as Pembina does not currently trade on the NYSE, the best way to get in may be to buy PVX and let the shares convert in the buyout.

2) Latitude Solutions (LATI) This is a start-up company that claims to have a proven way to clean up waste water used in industrial processes. This product is tailor made for wells using the "Fracking" process, which is all the rage these days. They have no current revenues yet and it is a highly speculative play. It trades around $1.35 now, but could be worth oodles more if the technology pans out.

3) Harley-Davidson (HOG) The maker of heavyweight motorcycles with one of the most coveted brand images in the world. Currently coming out of a major cost cutting restructuring after the new CEO took over a couple of years ago, Harley is working like crazy to expand into overseas markets, notably Asia. The resolution of the credit crisis has helped to make their financial services (making loans to potential cycle owners) more profitable again. With their drive to lower costs, if they can make major inroads into foreign markets (and if the US economy corrects itself), they should do well for years to come. Currently at about 41.50 with a 1.5% dividend yield.

Hopefully my 2012 is a lot better than my 2011 (in terms of my "published picks" here).


Tue Jan 17, 2012 4:29 pm
Cinematographer
User avatar

Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 8:21 pm
Posts: 590
Location: Milwaukee, WI (USA)
Post Re: Market Tips
Another year has come and gone. Let's see what happened to Johnny's picks in 2012
johnny larue wrote:
1) Provident Energy (PVX) This has been a great stock for me for about 3 or 4 years. It's a Candian energy company and a steady dividend payer that has a monthly payout yielding over 5%. I bought $1000 worth of this for my son 2 years ago when the stock got hammered and it has since tripled in value. The price recently shot up 20% because they are being bought out by another Canadian company, Pembina. The combined entity will still be paying 5+% monthly dividend, but as Pembina does not currently trade on the NYSE, the best way to get in may be to buy PVX and let the shares convert in the buyout.

This one went pretty much as predicted. My investment in Provident rolled over into Pembina and since then appreciated a meager 5%, but it is still paying a monthly dividend that has an annual yield rate of 5.7%, which ain't too shabby. Will continue to hold this one and let those dividend checks reinvest into the future.
johnny larue wrote:
2) Latitude Solutions (LATI) This is a start-up company that claims to have a proven way to clean up waste water used in industrial processes. This product is tailor made for wells using the "Fracking" process, which is all the rage these days. They have no current revenues yet and it is a highly speculative play. It trades around $1.35 now, but could be worth oodles more if the technology pans out.

Things didn't turn out so great for Latitude Solutions. They never got any real deals inked or revenue going. They had field tests of their equipment that they reported were successful, but we never got an independent confirmation of those findings. They moved headquarters, fired the executive team, had their big deep pocketed honcho resign from the board, and eventually filed for bankruptcy. Another lesson learned in playing the speculative start-up game. A classic example of not putting all your eggs in one basket...and I didn't here. Currently trading at a penny...will see if there's any meat on the carcass after the creditors come calling.
johnny larue wrote:
3) Harley-Davidson (HOG) The maker of heavyweight motorcycles with one of the most coveted brand images in the world. Currently coming out of a major cost cutting restructuring after the new CEO took over a couple of years ago, Harley is working like crazy to expand into overseas markets, notably Asia. The resolution of the credit crisis has helped to make their financial services (making loans to potential cycle owners) more profitable again. With their drive to lower costs, if they can make major inroads into foreign markets (and if the US economy corrects itself), they should do well for years to come. Currently at about 41.50 with a 1.5% dividend yield.

Not a bad year for Harley. They started to show some signs of recovery as revenues started to tick up a bit and they continued their internal cost cutting measures with a huge revamping of operations in the York, PA assembly operation. That project was pretty successful and they have 2 more major plants they can replicate these cost savings to. The stock was rewarded going from 41.50 a year ago to 49.50 today, which is a return of about 19% with a 1.3% current dividend to boot.

Johnny's 2013 Picks

1) MGIC (MTG) I've played this insurer of mortgages on and off for several years. They really got beat up during the housing crisis and this year a tussle with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae saw their stock price tumble to about 60 cents a share. I swooped in mid-year and grabbed some at about 80 cents. They have made up with Freddie and Fannie and the price has rebounded to $2.90 today (leaving Johhny with a nice 260% profit so far). Their 52-week high is around 5 bucks and if the housing market recovers, I still think they have some room to run. I would be surprised if an investor today did not see at least a 10-20% return this year from here.

2) Marcus Corporation (MCS) I recently got my daughter into this one. They operate a string of movie multiplexes throughout the midwest and have some real estate operations as well.They added a fat 1 dollar special dividend in December and moved the first 2 regular payments into December which shows me management cares about the stock holder. This stock may be a bit pricey at $12.80 (given its historical 10-14 dollar trading range). Revenues were up in 2012 due to a strong slate of movies. Will 2013 be better, worse or the same? Regardless, they do pay a nice steady 2.8% dividend, but be warned that the first 2 payouts of 2013 were moved into 2012 to avoid the feared tax hikes that now appear will not happen.

3) BP (BP) This infamous petroleum producer which had the oil rig blow up in the gulf almost 2 years ago is starting to put that event behind them. Lawsuits should sort themselves out in 2013 and the company has been shedding some of their properties to generate cash for payoffs. They currently pay a 5.2% dividend which could get ratcheted up once the last of the lawsuits is settled. The stock is currently trading at $42.15 but was in the 50-60 range before Deepwater Horizon happened. Barring any future disasters, or unforeseen lawsuits, I expect this stock to get back there. It may not be this year, but when it does, it will be a nice 25%+ return, plus dividends.

So nothing overly speculative for 2013. Unlike the last 2 years, I don't expect any of these picks to go to 0. Fingers crossed, of course.


Wed Jan 02, 2013 2:00 pm
Profile
Gaffer
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2012 8:21 pm
Posts: 25
Post Re: Market Tips
Anyone who strongly disagrees with Mark Cuban on the market?

http://blogmaverick.com/2013/01/10/the-stock-market-2/

_________________
Under peaceful conditions the militant man attacks himself.


Sat Jan 12, 2013 5:44 pm
Profile
Cinematographer
User avatar

Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 8:21 pm
Posts: 590
Location: Milwaukee, WI (USA)
Post Re: Market Tips
ed_metal_head wrote:
Anyone who strongly disagrees with Mark Cuban on the market?

http://blogmaverick.com/2013/01/10/the-stock-market-2/


Sounds like he started out as an embodiment of the "buy what you know" adage and was doing fine. Then he became more of a free-wheeler and became willing to take advantage of the "dumb people" with his own company. And then he rounds off by complaining about the very system and people that made him rich. Not that that's necessarily wrong; our society has plenty of hypocrites who make their nut and then bitch and complain about the system they used to propagate their success. It's pretty easy to take that cynical attitude when you're looking down from atop a big pile of money.


Mon Jan 14, 2013 1:52 pm
Profile
Cinematographer
User avatar

Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2012 8:21 pm
Posts: 590
Location: Milwaukee, WI (USA)
Post Re: Market Tips
My, what a great year for the stock market in 2013. With the Dow up 26%, the NASDAQ up 38% and the S&P 500 up nearly 30%, it seems just about any idiot could have thrown a dart at a stock chart and done pretty well. Let’s see how this idiot did with his picks from last year:

Johnny's 2013 Picks
Johnny Larue wrote:
1) MGIC (MTG) I've played this insurer of mortgages on and off for several years. They really got beat up during the housing crisis and this year a tussle with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae saw their stock price tumble to about 60 cents a share. I swooped in mid-year and grabbed some at about 80 cents. They have made up with Freddie and Fannie and the price has rebounded to $2.90 today (leaving Johhny with a nice 260% profit so far). Their 52-week high is around 5 bucks and if the housing market recovers, I still think they have some room to run. I would be surprised if an investor today did not see at least a 10-20% return this year from here.

“Room to run 10-20%”? Wow…what an understatement. MTG jumped from $2.90 this time last year to $8.40 today. That’s a gain of almost 200%!!! This is a stock I will continue to hold as the housing market continues to stabilize. Could you see 200% gains from here in 2014? Not likely. But I expect it to continue to outpace the market.

Johnny Larue wrote:
2) Marcus Corporation (MCS) I recently got my daughter into this one. They operate a string of movie multiplexes throughout the midwest and have some real estate operations as well.They added a fat 1 dollar special dividend in December and moved the first 2 regular payments into December which shows me management cares about the stock holder. This stock may be a bit pricey at $12.80 (given its historical 10-14 dollar trading range). Revenues were up in 2012 due to a strong slate of movies. Will 2013 be better, worse or the same? Regardless, they do pay a nice steady 2.8% dividend, but be warned that the first 2 payouts of 2013 were moved into 2012 to avoid the feared tax hikes that now appear will not happen.

Ahh…Marcus Corp. My perennial under-performer. The movie biz saw record box office last year but my hometown cineplex could only eek out a share price of $13.53 as of today. That’s a measly 5.7% return which, when compared to the rest of the market, just sucked. Even when you toss in the 2.8% dividend. I actually got my daughter OUT of this one fairly early in 2013 and into one of my 2014 picks below instead.

Johnny Larue wrote:
3) BP (BP) This infamous petroleum producer which had the oil rig blow up in the gulf almost 2 years ago is starting to put that event behind them. Lawsuits should sort themselves out in 2013 and the company has been shedding some of their properties to generate cash for payoffs. They currently pay a 5.2% dividend which could get ratcheted up once the last of the lawsuits is settled. The stock is currently trading at $42.15 but was in the 50-60 range before Deepwater Horizon happened. Barring any future disasters, or unforeseen lawsuits, I expect this stock to get back there. It may not be this year, but when it does, it will be a nice 25%+ return, plus dividends.

BP was still going round the litigation merry go round in 2013, but that didn’t stop it from climbing to $48.21 today for a gain of 14%. Add in another 5% on the dividend and it still underperformed the broader market, but this is another one I hope to see more out of as the legal issues subside. A different threat to share price may come in the form of a collapse in oil prices as North American output continues to grow and/or emerging economy demand falters.

2012 Updates

Provident Energy (PVX): Now Pembina Pipeline Corp (PBA) - Still churning out dividends near 5% and share price appreciated 20% in 2013.
Latitude Solutions (LATIQ): RIP in 2013
Harley-Davidson (HOG): Another great year with the share price going up another 40% this year. Rock on!

Johnny's 2014 Picks

So what’s ahead in 2014? Some are predicting a 10% correction early this year after the gonzo year of 2013 with many saying it’s not a matter of “if”, but “when” the market takes its haircut. To which I say, “damn the torpedoes and full steam ahead!”

1) Computer Task Group (CTG) This is an IT consulting firm out of Buffalo, NY that specializes in helping companies with healthcare related systems. They were cruising along through much of 2013 and then in July they reduced future profitability guidance in part due to government sequestration budget cuts. The stock price took a huge digger from $25.50 down to $18.50 in one day. The fundamental business hasn’t changed and they are still quite profitable. They are trading at around $18.05 today and I like them to be able to generate continued revenues based on the Obamacare roll-out.

2) Walgreen’s (WAG) This is the stock I got my daughter into that I mentioned above. Another health care related stock, they will be selling prescriptions long into the future as the baby boomers continue into retirement. Currently trading at $56.60 and paying a modest 2.2% dividend

3) Annaly Capital Management (NLY) I’ve had this one for a long time and it has been a big disappointment. Oh, sure, the 12% dividend is pretty sweet, but that was small comfort when the share price crashed from $15 to $10 while the rest of the market was going crazy last year. But you know the old adage: buy low, sell high. Could be a good time to “catch that falling knife” and throw some cash here and see what sticks. If the dividend doesn’t get cut, 12% is not a shabby way to go (providing the price finally stabilizes, of course). This is also real estate related so I wouldn’t initiate positions in both NLY and MTG unless you really believe that housing continues its strong recovery.

Good luck to all in 2014!


Fri Jan 03, 2014 12:45 pm
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 11 posts ] 


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by Vjacheslav Trushkin for Free Forum/DivisionCore.
Translated by Xaphos © 2007, 2008, 2009 phpBB.fr