I can see why ''Slumdog Millionaire'' is the favorite. A feel-good movie of this kind is always a good bet, even more in times of economic distress like the ones we live.

But I am at a loss to explain the fact that it became a veritable juggernaut, sweeping every award, even the ones where it was not considered a favorite (Cinema Audio Society). Not even ''Titanic'' or the ''Return of the King'' had achieved such domination.

And I have to disagree with you James regarding the Best Actor race. While Penn is the frontrunner, a loss to Rourke will hardly be a surprise of ''Crash'' magnitude.
And it certainly will not provoke any outrage at all. Rourke's performance was equally praised and he won the GG and SAG award.

If Rourke wins, I think there will be more happiness than if Penn wins cause I'm thinking the opposite that Penn's win will incite a riot like Crash did

Nate Silver, the fivethirtyeight.com statistics guru, picked Taraji P. Henson for Best Supporting Actress. But, like you, I like Davis in that categroy.

Cruz emerging as the "favorite" is just weird to me. Where did that consensus come from? What's it based on?

Her looks.

But Amy Adams is the hottest out of the lot!

But she doesn't have an exotic accent.

Cause she doesn't need one

1)Yes, Crash was undeserving but I think Brokeback was not. Both Brokeback Mountain and Munich would have made deserving winners I think.

2) James, you make it sound as if gays are crazy about their stuff and want gay movies to win no matter what. I think that's unfair. Brokeback was a critic's darling as well. And as for Penn, I thnk he deserves it. Boh him and Rourke were believable but Penn's role was a lot trickier.

3) Rourke didn't win the SAG, he won the Bafta.

Pretty good predictions overall, though there are a couple I disagree with. Considering how adored Wall-E, I can see it picking up one of the sound awards at least. Ben Burtt's sound work was so important on whether the film worked or failed, it's hard to ignore it. And with thirteen nominations, I don't see Benjamin Button winning just two awards. It won't win in the major categories, but it will definitely do very well in technicals.

Here are my full predictions:

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke
Best Actress: Kate Winslet (she should seriously thank Ricky Gervais in her acceptance speech)
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz
Best Director: Danny Boyle
Animated Feature: WALL-E
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Cinematography: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Costume Design: The Duchess
Documentary: Man on Wire
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Foreign Language Film: Waltz with Bashir
Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Musical Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Music (Song): "Down to Earth"- WALL-E
Sound Editing: WALL-E
Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Writing (Adapted): Slumdog Millionaire
Writing (Original): WALL-E (this is going to be the surprise win of the night, they always like to go for the quirky, different films sans Best Picture nod here)

Why does Hollywood dislike "The Dark Knight" and "Revolutionary Road"?

I think Slumdog Millionaire has coattails, but not enough to overcome Benjamin Button in the technical categories. Here are my predictions -- for full analysis, go here: http://moviemanifesto.blogspot.com

Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Actor: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Original Screenplay: Wall-E
Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire

Animated Feature: Wall-E
Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Costume Design: The Duchess
Documentary: Man on Wire
Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Foreign Language Film: The Class
Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Original Score: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Original Song: Wall-E ("Down to Earth")
Sound Editing: Wall-E
Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

I know this is not a new sentiment, but WOW AMPAS blew it this year.

For some reason, I have a feeling that BB is going to win a lot of awards. I hope that I am mistaken.

You forgot factor #4 that influences Oscar picks: whether or not the individual won before.

Sean Penn won Best Actor not too long ago (Mystic River). Therefore, Mickey Rourke will win Best Actor this year.

Here are my picks, which I reserve the right to change between now and Sunday:

1. PICTURE: Slumdog Millionaire
2. DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle
3. ACTOR: Mickey Rourke
4. ACTRESS: Kate Winslet
5. SUPPORTING ACTOR: Heath Ledger
6. SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penelope Cruz
7. ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Milk
8. ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Slumdog Millionaire
9. FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Waltz with Bashir
10. ANIMATED FEATURE: WALL-E
11. DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Man on Wire
12. FILM EDITING: Slumdog Millionaire
13. CINEMATOGRAPHY: Slumdog Millionaire
14. ART DIRECTION: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
15. COSTUME DESIGN: The Duchess
16. SOUND MIXING: Slumdog Millionaire
17. SOUND EDITING: WALL-E
18. ORIGINAL SCORE: Slumdog Millionaire
19. ORIGINAL SONG: "Jai Ho"
20. BEST MAKE-UP: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
21. VISUAL EFFECTS: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
22. LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Pig
23. ANIMATED SHORT: Presto
24. DOCUMENTARY SHORT: The Conscience of Nhem En

This year, Oscars = BAFTAs.

I would pay to hear Danny Boyle (and whoever accepts the award for Best Picture) say "I'd like to thank the economy." Does anyone else besides me think the movie got a boost from being released in tough economic times and really being the only feel-good flick of the nominees? It's a great movie and deserves the honor, sure, but if I were accepting the award I might just thank the economy. Distasteful, sure, but it would get people talking, unlike most snoozefest Oscar telecasts.

Didn't Tom Hanks win Best Actor two years in a row? I don't see this as a factor.

By the way, contrary to what James said and thinks, Slumdog Millionaire is the biggest lock for Best Picture since at least Titanic, or even since Gone with the Wind. It might even be the biggest lock of all time. This is quite obvious when looking at the major guild awards and other precursors: Slumdog's string of victories is unprecedented. For any other movie to win Best Picture, or even Best Director, is unimaginable.

James also said, three years ago, that Brokeback Mountain was a bigger lock than The Return of the King. Well, unlike Brokeback, Slumdog does not show any sign of backlash or any other ideological handicap.

I highly doubt that there will be an outcry if Mickey Rourke wins over Sean Penn. Why would there be? It's not like Penn is so far out in front that his defeat would be considered a real upset. Let's face it: Rourke, aside from enjoying a last minute momentum of buzz, is the sentimental favorite of the season, alongside Heath Ledger. If you want to bring politics into the discussion, then you have to face the implications that no matter who wins, some political agenda will be read into the outcome. In other words, if Penn wins, a lot of people will say that it was because voters wanted to show that they were pro-gay; if Rourke wins, a lot of people will say that it was because voters have revealed their homophobia once again.

Although I'll grant that politics will be part of the equation, I can't buy the idea that it's anywhere near the primary factor. There are already enough reasons to justify Rourke's win at the expense of Penn, unlike the case of Crash over Brokeback Mountain. So the outcome of the Best Actor race can't be reduced to a simplistic political reading. Doing so would only undermine the fine work of both gentlemen. I'm sure that Milk will win a major award, because the Academy clearly loves the movie and wants to show some unambiguous support of it and its message. But that award doesn't have to be Best Actor.

This is always a factor, except in very rare circumstances. Please feel free to name all of the other people who have won back-to-back Oscars (or Oscars within a few years of each other).