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February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli" 
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Post February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
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Sun Feb 21, 2010 1:42 pm
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Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
Wow, it seems several critics are doing Oscar contests this year.


Sun Feb 21, 2010 2:47 pm
Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
I'm convinced that INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS will take Picture as a result of the preferential voting system (which will split the HURT LOCKER and AVATAR votes and allow BASTERDS to rise to the top) and its SAG ensemble win which shows that the actors (which comprise the largest branch of AMPAS) are behind it. It also strikes more of a balance of having made some substantial money (which HURT LOCKER didn't) and having subject matter that, however unconventional, is more in-line with the Academy's tastes than AVATAR. Tarantino is also well respected and liked in Hollywood.

And never underestimate the Weinsteins.


Sun Feb 21, 2010 2:53 pm
Second Unit Director

Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2009 4:13 am
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Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
James,
Have you considered doing a guest spot on popular podcasts such as the /filmcast or filmspotting? That may give you a wider distribution than a local radio show.


Sun Feb 21, 2010 6:59 pm
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Gaffer

Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 11:33 am
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Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
James, I'm wondering this business of having ten top picture nominees is going to play out. I have a feeling it will be like the Golden Gloves in baseball -- an unconstrained plurality such that the winner only actually gets a small fraction of the vote, but simply win by being on the most ballots. That favors Avatar, IMHO, since it's the most famous picture.


Sun Feb 21, 2010 8:54 pm
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Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
BrianB wrote:
I'm convinced that INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS will take Picture as a result of the preferential voting system (which will split the HURT LOCKER and AVATAR votes and allow BASTERDS to rise to the top) and its SAG ensemble win which shows that the actors (which comprise the largest branch of AMPAS) are behind it. It also strikes more of a balance of having made some substantial money (which HURT LOCKER didn't) and having subject matter that, however unconventional, is more in-line with the Academy's tastes than AVATAR. Tarantino is also well respected and liked in Hollywood.

And never underestimate the Weinsteins.

That would be AWESOME. I'm happy with the right movie winning even if it's because of the specifics of the voting system (yes, I'm saying that IB is the right movie to win).


Mon Feb 22, 2010 1:04 am
Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
Um, where in the competitions forum is the Beat Berardinelli post?


Mon Feb 22, 2010 1:46 am
Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
JJoshay wrote:
Um, where in the competitions forum is the Beat Berardinelli post?


It hasn't existed yet....it'll be up tomorrow morning unless somebody does it earlier


Mon Feb 22, 2010 1:48 am
Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
I have every intention of beating Berardinelli haha.

I suppose Inglourious Basterds could win, but it'd likely only take home screenplay and supporting actor in addition to picture. Most Best Picture winners take at least four nowadays, Crash aside. (Strangely enough, the last Best Picture winner before Crash that only won three Oscars is The Godfather.) I don't see Inglourious picking up editing, cinematography, sound mixing, or sound editing. Especially the last two. If I'm wrong, I'll eat my hair and video tape it.

I'm a Hurt Locker man, as it's won the PGA and DGA. The PGA uses the same preferential voting system as the Academy.


Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:24 am
Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
Also, from Awards Daily:

Reader David Hanks sent in this bit of detective work, from davidhanks.com/dhformula.html

History will be made regardless of who wins – but here is another group of stats to consider. The big change this year is the preferential ballot and the ten nominees for Best Picture. Nonetheless–

When the Director’s Guild (DG) winner AND one of the American Cinema Editors (ACE) winners AND one of the Writers Guild (WG) winners are ALL given awards for the same film, that film has been named Best Picture 7 of 7 times (100%) during the last 48 years (1961-2008). [Best Picture winners in bold]

2008 – Slumdog Millionaire – Danny Boyle (DG)
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire – Chris Dickens (ACE)
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire – Simon Beaufoy (WG)

2006 – The Departed – Martin Scorsese (DG)
2006 – The Departed – Thelma Schoonmaker (ACE)
2006 – The Departed – William Monahan (WG)


1994 – Forrest Gump – Robert Zemeckis (DG)
1994 – Forrest Gump – Arthur Schmidt (ACE)
1994 – Forrest Gump – Eric Roth (WG)

1993 – Schindler’s List – Steven Spielberg (DG)
1993 – Schindler’s List – Michael Kahn (ACE)
1993 – Schindler’s List – Steven Zaillian (WG)

1990 – Dances With Wolves – Kevin Costner (DG)
1990 – Dances With Wolves – Neil Travis (ACE)
1990 – Dances With Wolves – Michael Blake (WG)

1970 – Patton – Franklin Schaffner (DG)
1970 – Patton – Hugh S. Fowler (ACE)
1970 – Patton – Francis Ford Coppola, Edmund H. North (WG)

1965 – The Sound of Music – Robert Wise (DG)
1965 – The Sound of Music – William Reynolds (ACE)
1965 – The Sound of Music – Ernest Lehman (WG)

When the Director’s Guild (DG) winner AND one of the American Cinema Editors (ACE) winners are both given awards for the same film, that film has been named Best Picture 19 of 20 times (95.0%) – the lone exception was in 1998 during the last 48 years (1961-2008).


Mon Feb 22, 2010 2:34 am
Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
You had stated in your list of predictions made at the start of the year, that The Hurt Locker will take home the oscar for Best Picture. Apart from Avatar's mammoth box office collection, what made you change your mind?


Mon Feb 22, 2010 7:01 am
Site Admin

Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 10:55 pm
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Location: Mount Laurel, NJ, USA
Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
Patrick wrote:
JJoshay wrote:
Um, where in the competitions forum is the Beat Berardinelli post?


It hasn't existed yet....it'll be up tomorrow morning unless somebody does it earlier


I'll activate the thread tomorrow morning; it will come with all the appropriate instructions as well as a template that people can cut-and-paste from. I would do it today but I'm busy with writing, the radio show, issues related to my day job, and seeing a screening tonight. Tomorrow is a slightly less hectic day.


Mon Feb 22, 2010 10:11 am
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Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
Prophet wrote:
You had stated in your list of predictions made at the start of the year, that The Hurt Locker will take home the oscar for Best Picture. Apart from Avatar's mammoth box office collection, what made you change your mind?


When I made that prediction, my ear to the ground told me that THE HURT LOCKER was the film to beat. Two months later, it's not as clear and AVATAR has become a strong contender.


Mon Feb 22, 2010 10:14 am
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Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
James Berardinelli wrote:
Patrick wrote:
JJoshay wrote:
Um, where in the competitions forum is the Beat Berardinelli post?


It hasn't existed yet....it'll be up tomorrow morning unless somebody does it earlier


I'll activate the thread tomorrow morning; it will come with all the appropriate instructions as well as a template that people can cut-and-paste from. I would do it today but I'm busy with writing, the radio show, issues related to my day job, and seeing a screening tonight. Tomorrow is a slightly less hectic day.


Oh...I thought you were going to make one of us mods do it. Works for me.


Mon Feb 22, 2010 10:51 am
Director

Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:44 pm
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Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
James, any chance you can offer doing a review of a film of our choice instead of the amazon dvd as the prize? that prize is far more interesting to me.


Mon Feb 22, 2010 1:40 pm
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Location: Mount Laurel, NJ, USA
Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
calvero wrote:
James, any chance you can offer doing a review of a film of our choice instead of the amazon dvd as the prize? that prize is far more interesting to me.


No - the review prize is the exclusive purview of the year-long "Guess Berardinelli" contest. Different prizes for different contests. Reviews require a fair amount of effort (I put in more than 10 hours for THE PASSION OF JOAN OF ARC) and being outguessed for the Oscars doesn't warrant that sort of commitment.


Mon Feb 22, 2010 3:41 pm
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Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
Has anyone else only been hearing Spanish all day on the link James gave to the WNJC site? Will they switch over to English at 5:00E? Something wrong on my end?

EDIT: Nevermind, the Spanish is over. Patience is a virtue.


Mon Feb 22, 2010 5:27 pm
Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
James Mason 'Berardinelli' wrote:
What do you win? Your choice of any one DVD or Blu-Ray available directly (not through secondary sellers) on Amazon.com with the total Amazon price not to exceed $US 35, including international shipping costs, if applicable (this is primarily to avoid someone ordering an expensive box set).

Okay, with that out of the way, let's have some fun with this. The prize is only a little tangible bonus. This is all about bragging rights.


Speak for yourself you Lolita-lover. As someone who lives outside the US I've endured countless contests that are open to US residents only. Finally I get my chance. Forget bragging rights, I want the prize!!! :D


Mon Feb 22, 2010 6:03 pm
Post Re: February 21, 2010: "Beat Berardinelli"
BrianB wrote:
Has anyone else only been hearing Spanish all day on the link James gave to the WNJC site? Will they switch over to English at 5:00E? Something wrong on my end?

EDIT: Nevermind, the Spanish is over. Patience is a virtue.


I'm listening live and browsing the forums. This is weird. "Usenet...1997...Video reviews"


Mon Feb 22, 2010 6:06 pm
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