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January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions" 
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Post January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
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Tue Jan 05, 2010 3:36 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
what do you think about its chances of passing Titanic's WW gross(which is 1.8 billion)?

Avatar's BO is at a furious pace overseas right now.


Tue Jan 05, 2010 3:46 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
For some reason, prediction number four looks really scary and I don't want to read it lol. The others ones intrigue me, though.

#1. I agree. It's not unreasonable to suggest that Avatar will continue to kick ass and take names as it rapes the loveliness out of January.
#2. I don't know. It's a four-way tie right now as far as I'm concerned and I won't make any claims until the PGA announces its winner.
#3. If it gets stellar reviews, Inception might make over $300 million. It looks really cool, and people like Nolan and Leo.


Tue Jan 05, 2010 4:16 pm
Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
I'll still keep my fingers crossed for the Basterds until the envelope opens. I'll be happy if THE HURT LOCKER or UP IN THE AIR wins, though. PRECIOUS... not so much.


Tue Jan 05, 2010 4:43 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
Avatar has a great chance of knocking off Titantic.
This summer will be a bounce back year(both box office and critic-wise).
The Hurt Locker is the film to beat.
I want my Braves to win the NL Pennant, but the Phillies are the team to beat.


Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:23 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
Yeah, I consider Precious to be more of an actors' (or actress's) movie, so while I'd like to see it succeed in that regard, I'd rather Best Picture go to something with the chops for it. I'd like to see Inglourious Basterds win, but I wouldn't be heartbroken if the statuette went to either The Hurt Locker or Up In the Air. Best Director for Tarantino would be a nice consolation if it doesn't win the grand prize.


Tue Jan 05, 2010 5:59 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
I hate self-advertising (do I?), but I did a little commentary on Avatar's box office prospects right here. Looking back on what I wrote it's actually surprising how well Avatar is doing each weekend. It's weekend-to-weekend drop has been practically nothing compared to most movies; only 1.8% in its second weekend and 9.7% in its third. Compared to The Dark Knight, which is the #2 top grossing film of all time (in unadjusted dollars), that's huge. The Dark Knight dropped a staggering 52.5% in its second weekend, and then 43.2% in its third.

Considering how bad the outlook for movies is in January (in my opinion), I don't know if Avatar is going to have much competition. Perhaps surges from Oscar nominees for Best Picture that are expanded in their releases and/or re-released to promote themselves could do something, but I don't see much danger in movies like Youth in Revolt and Leap Year.

On another topic... Although I certainly think that The Hurt Locker is doing well with critics awards, I don't know if that necessarily means the movie has a better shot at Best Picture. Interesting fact: the last time the NYFCC, LAFCA and NSFC agreed on Best Picture, it was 1997 (they chose LA Confidential), and the eventual Oscar winner was Titanic? Interesting considering we have that same case this time, only we have The Hurt Locker winning those critics awards, and Avatar as the James Cameron juggernaut.

I think The Hurt Locker is really hindered by the fact that no one really saw it. It only made $12 million. That's far, FAR below something like Crash or No Country For Old Men, two recent and previous Best Pic winners that didn't break the "$100 million threshold". Before Crash, The Last Emperor was the first movie in a long time to win Best Picture without breaking $100 million at the domestic box office, and even that made more money than The Hurt Locker. The Academy is under a lot of pressure this year to please popular tastes. None of this is to say I wouldn't be happy if the movie won. I think it's definitely a deserving film. I just don't know if The Hurt Locker is the Oscar juggernaut some people are predicting.

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Tue Jan 05, 2010 6:10 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air are both excellent movies, but each of them benefits from being highly topical: war (the former) and the economy (the latter), even though (thankfully) neither movie resorted to political statements. Obviously they'd be terrific movies in any era, but everyone knows you don't win Oscars on quality alone.

As a bonus, a win for The Hurt Locker might just be the Academy's way of saying, "Yeah, we know we f***ed up 11 years ago by screwing over Saving Private Ryan. This time a war film really does deserve it." ;)


Tue Jan 05, 2010 7:52 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
KRoss wrote:
As a bonus, a win for The Hurt Locker might just be the Academy's way of saying, "Yeah, we know we f***ed up 11 years ago by screwing over Saving Private Ryan. This time a war film really does deserve it." ;)


Of course, "The Thin Red Line" was the better war movie Best Picture nominee that year (just as "Elizabeth" was the better Elizabethan drama). :P A far bigger travesty for me was "Kramer Versus Kramer" getting the statue over "Apocalypse Now" 30 years ago.


Tue Jan 05, 2010 8:23 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
The only thing I have to say about that whole article is...

Go Mets! :) :oops:

The Mets have a chance at third. Florida hasn't been racing to upgrade and could fall back. I think the Braves have a lock on second and could end up being the Wild Card team. Depends on whether their pitching can repeat the 2009 numbers. Bullpens are notoriously fickle and vary in quality from year-to-year. A good bullpen one year can become mediocre the next (Phillies 2008 to 2009).


Tue Jan 05, 2010 9:16 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
KRoss wrote:
The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air are both excellent movies, but each of them benefits from being highly topical: war (the former) and the economy (the latter), even though (thankfully) neither movie resorted to political statements. Obviously they'd be terrific movies in any era, but everyone knows you don't win Oscars on quality alone.

As a bonus, a win for The Hurt Locker might just be the Academy's way of saying, "Yeah, we know we f***ed up 11 years ago by screwing over Saving Private Ryan. This time a war film really does deserve it." ;)

I don't know if the Academy would be awarding The Hurt Locker to make up for not awarding Saving Private Ryan... The movies are way too dissimilar. Aside from the fact that they're both war movies, I don't see much of a connection. =\

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Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:53 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
I agree that Inception has a chance to reach the $300 million mark given great reviews.


Wed Jan 06, 2010 12:00 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
BrianB wrote:
I'll still keep my fingers crossed for the Basterds until the envelope opens. I'll be happy if THE HURT LOCKER or UP IN THE AIR wins, though. PRECIOUS... not so much.

Precious won't win Best Picture.

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Wed Jan 06, 2010 1:50 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
Inception has no chance of making 300 mill(I'm even doubtful about 200 mill) have you seen the list of 300 mill films? the list is almost made up entirely of sequels, cartoons, superheroes, & movies based on toys/amusement parks. In short, movies made for children(or people who like to turn off their brain before entering the theater, which is the majority of the movie going public)

Inception doesn't strike me as that type of movie. And there's no guy running around in a cape in it. its a bit early to say Nolan is some director who knows how to put buts in the seats.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm

The Passion & Forrrst Gump are the only films on that list that I'm truly surprised made over 300 mill. The rest all fit the profile of blockbusters(not saying they were all sure things though)


Wed Jan 06, 2010 2:22 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
ChronoSpark wrote:
KRoss wrote:
The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air are both excellent movies, but each of them benefits from being highly topical: war (the former) and the economy (the latter), even though (thankfully) neither movie resorted to political statements. Obviously they'd be terrific movies in any era, but everyone knows you don't win Oscars on quality alone.

As a bonus, a win for The Hurt Locker might just be the Academy's way of saying, "Yeah, we know we f***ed up 11 years ago by screwing over Saving Private Ryan. This time a war film really does deserve it." ;)

I don't know if the Academy would be awarding The Hurt Locker to make up for not awarding Saving Private Ryan... The movies are way too dissimilar. Aside from the fact that they're both war movies, I don't see much of a connection. =\


I know. That's probably not even a thought in their minds. I was just joking. But still, just thought I'd remind everyone who was watching at the time about one of the biggest snubs in Oscar history. Hell, we can credit that single upset for making JB's Oscar hatred what it is today. :D


Wed Jan 06, 2010 8:26 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
KRoss wrote:
ChronoSpark wrote:
KRoss wrote:
The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air are both excellent movies, but each of them benefits from being highly topical: war (the former) and the economy (the latter), even though (thankfully) neither movie resorted to political statements. Obviously they'd be terrific movies in any era, but everyone knows you don't win Oscars on quality alone.

As a bonus, a win for The Hurt Locker might just be the Academy's way of saying, "Yeah, we know we f***ed up 11 years ago by screwing over Saving Private Ryan. This time a war film really does deserve it." ;)

I don't know if the Academy would be awarding The Hurt Locker to make up for not awarding Saving Private Ryan... The movies are way too dissimilar. Aside from the fact that they're both war movies, I don't see much of a connection. =\


I know. That's probably not even a thought in their minds. I was just joking. But still, just thought I'd remind everyone who was watching at the time about one of the biggest snubs in Oscar history. Hell, we can credit that single upset for making JB's Oscar hatred what it is today. :D

Yeah, it was a huge one. I think my Oscar hatred started in '05 when BBM lost to Crash. Same kind of situation, in my personal opinion. I know James might not agree, but I think since '05 it's become more clear that Crash didn't deserve to win. Then again in '08... That was a freakin' travesty. Back in '98 I wasn't even paying attention to the Oscars. :D

But that hatred doesn't stop me from getting all into Oscar predictions every year come the season. :lol:

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Wed Jan 06, 2010 9:05 pm
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Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
ChronoSpark wrote:
I don't know if the Academy would be awarding The Hurt Locker to make up for not awarding Saving Private Ryan... The movies are way too dissimilar. Aside from the fact that they're both war movies, I don't see much of a connection. =\


I still think Bulworth was the best picture of 1998 :)


Thu Jan 07, 2010 7:17 am
Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
MrGuinness wrote:
I still think Bulworth was the best picture of 1998 :)
Bulworth was severely underrated. One of the finest political satires in recent memory.


Thu Jan 07, 2010 2:50 pm
Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
so how much is there truth to this http://www.websiteoutlook.com/www.reelviews.net


Thu Jan 07, 2010 3:45 pm
Post Re: January 05, 2010: "Sour Grapes and Fearless Predictions"
vvega wrote:
so how much is there truth to this http://www.websiteoutlook.com/www.reelviews.net


I don't know about Jim, but one of my sites was listed as being worth 20k

cool :)


Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:12 pm
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