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Best Supporting Actor 
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Post Best Supporting Actor
Huzzah! And we move forward.

LOCKS

CHRISTOPH WALTZ - INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
~I hate to say he's probably going to win, but he's probably going to win. I'm saying that not because his performance wasn't phenomenal (it was), but because it would mark the third year in a row that the Academy gives the award to a villain role. Of course that's a political statement, but it's like Robin Williams says, "The Oscars are political? Fuck off!"

ALFRED MOLINA - AN EDUCATION
~If Christoph somehow loses, you can call Alfred the winner. God, it's amazing this man has never been nominated before. He's been consistently good in every role I've seen him in and this one is no exception.

EVERYONE ELSE

MATT DAMON - INVICTUS
~The trailer shows some promise, but no one's seen the film yet. I respect Damon to death as an artist and I think it's about damn time he's gotten some recognition as an actor, and it would be great to see him obtain it here. It's Clint Eastwood directing; of course he's a frontrunner.

STANLEY TUCCI - THE LOVELY BONES
~I'll reiterate: it's amazing this man has never been nominated before. I've read a little bit of the book; it seems like this character is mercilessly evil. Seeing Tucci interpreting such an evil man should be an interesting watch. Again, no one's seen the movie.

CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER - THE LAST STATION
~I have yet to see how a movie about Leo Tolstoy's life constitutes the man playing Leo Tolstoy into the supporting category, unless it's kind of like The Last King of Scotland... in reverse. In any case, Plummer's getting raves and we should definitely be talking about him.

ANTHONY MACKIE - THE HURT LOCKER
~Personally, I thought his performance in Half Nelson was better, but I don't want to take any credit away from his work here. It's fantastic and totally Oscarworthy. He accurately captures the mentality of a soldier who has to put up with some bullshit. I can still him getting a nomination, but we'll see.

PAUL SCHNEIDER - BRIGHT STAR
~Although Cornish's performance was better, Schneider definitely shouldn't be ignored. Unfortunately, he's kind of been ignored in favor of Cornish. I've seen Schneider in a few films now (Lars and the Real Girl, The Assassination of Blah Blah Blah, and George Washington) and his talent is more than evident. In Bright Star, he takes on a Scottish accent and portrays a man whose jealousy can do nothing except bleed black. It's almost surprising that he's not a frontrunner. I would LOVE to see him nominated; the likelihood of him getting there is similar to last year's Michael Shannon, who ended up getting into the top five. Again, we'll see. There be some juggernauts in the running.

ROBERT DUVALL - THE ROAD
~Allegedly, he's got a Judi Dench-Shakespeare in Love sized role, but you won't forget him once you see him. I can't wait to see The Road; I'll probably see it on opening weekend and weigh in on his performance immediately. Historically, bit parts like this don't usually get nominated, let alone win (Dench being the antithesis). However, he's Robert Duvall doing meaningful work again. There may be the sympathetic vote.

PETER SARSGAARD - AN EDUCATION
~I've loved this guy for a long time, and it's about time he gets his due. It probably won't be for this role; it doesn't help that there's some confusion over whether he's a lead or supporting. Nonetheless, he portrays a man with good intentions but who's ultimately not a good guy. A fine line to walk if you ask me.

RICHARD KIND - A SERIOUS MAN
~Once a frontrunner and now an unlikely, Kind is still in the running. Though his role is played to comedic effect, his character is actually very tragic. I'm not sure people will remember his name come Oscar time, but you never know. The Coen brothers have historically gotten their actors nominated.

KODI SMIT-MCPHEE - THE ROAD
~A child devoid of a childhood? Mmmm, I would think the Academy would gobble this up. No one's talking about him, though. I guess Mortenson does all of the film's heavy lifting.

CHRISTIAN MCKAY - ME AND ORSON WELLES
~Welles is such a character that you have to consider anyone who portrays the man. Allegedly his performance is very theatrical, which is good because the movie's about theatre. I'm not sure it's going to happen, but you never know.

JAMES MCAVOY - THE LAST STATION
~Count on him missing out here, just like he did for Atonement and The Last Kind of Scotland. Call me wrong, but I don't think it'll happen.

ALEC BALDWIN - IT'S COMPLICATED
~Whatever you say, In Contention.


Wed Nov 11, 2009 12:00 am
Post Re: Best Supporting Actor
Pedro wrote:
ROBERT DUVALL - THE ROAD
~Allegedly, he's got a Judi Dench-Shakespeare in Love sized role, but you won't forget him once you see him. I can't wait to see The Road; I'll probably see it on opening weekend and weigh in on his performance immediately. Historically, bit parts like this don't usually get nominated, let alone win (Dench being the antithesis). However, he's Robert Duvall doing meaningful work again. There may be the sympathetic vote.


I guess they've fleshed out some of the supporting characters for the film because I can't remember anyone coming close to Judi Dench running time.

Nice threads btw, keep up the good work.


Wed Nov 11, 2009 1:08 am
Post Re: Best Supporting Actor
Pedro wrote:
ANTHONY MACKIE - THE HURT LOCKER
~Personally, I thought his performance in Half Nelson was better, but I don't want to take any credit away from his work here. It's fantastic and totally Oscarworthy. He accurately captures the mentality of a soldier who has to put up with some bullshit. I can still him getting a nomination, but we'll see.


I agree with you personally, but I've read on most of the Oscar-Predix blogs that Brian Geraghty stands a better chance of getting the nod.

I also don't see THE ROAD getting any nominations -- it's best chance is Viggo in the lead category, but we'll see.

Unless the movie or performance are uniformly panned, I think Damon's a lock. He's had a (deservedly) wonderful year in the public eye and is so well liked that I think voters are itching to nominate him. In fact, I don't think it's impossible for him to get nods in both the supporting and lead categories.


Wed Nov 11, 2009 1:56 am
Post Re: Best Supporting Actor
Shade wrote:
I agree with you personally, but I've read on most of the Oscar-Predix blogs that Brian Geraghty stands a better chance of getting the nod.

I also don't see THE ROAD getting any nominations -- it's best chance is Viggo in the lead category, but we'll see.

Unless the movie or performance are uniformly panned, I think Damon's a lock. He's had a (deservedly) wonderful year in the public eye and is so well liked that I think voters are itching to nominate him. In fact, I don't think it's impossible for him to get nods in both the supporting and lead categories.


Really? I probably should have included Brian Geraghty in the post because he's been mentioned on the sites I follow, but no one I've read has considered him a major threat. Can you maybe link me to the blogs you've read that suggest this? I'm not discrediting your assessment; I'm just unaware.

I agree with you about The Road for the most part, but I guess I don't want to underestimate Duvall. He's got respect. Smit-McPhee you can probably rule out, but you never know.

Damon's pretty much a lock, I agree. I forgot to include my official predictions in my last post, but here they are:

Christoph Waltz
Alfred Molina
Matt Damon
Stanley Tucci
Paul Schneider

I've including Schneider over Plummer and Mackie on the grounds that Plummer's votes might get split between lead/supporting/this movie/Dr. Parnassus (if at all) and Mackie's votes might get split with Geraghty. That, and I want to root for Pauly.

ed_metal_head wrote:
I guess they've fleshed out some of the supporting characters for the film because I can't remember anyone coming close to Judi Dench running time.

Nice threads btw, keep up the good work.


Isn't Judi Dench only in Shakespeare for eight minutes? Did I confuse the analogy? Or is Duvall only in it for, like, two minutes?

Danke for the kind words, sir.


Wed Nov 11, 2009 3:27 am
Producer

Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2009 11:04 am
Posts: 2156
Post Re: Best Supporting Actor
I thought Mackie was fantastic in The Hurt Locker and I would personally LOVE to see him nominated.

I don't deny that he's a lock and maybe even THE front runner at the moment, but am I the only one who wasn't blown away by Christoph Waltz's performance?


Wed Nov 11, 2009 2:33 pm
Profile
Post Re: Best Supporting Actor
ilovemovies wrote:

I don't deny that he's a lock and maybe even THE front runner at the moment, but am I the only one who wasn't blown away by Christoph Waltz's performance?


No, you're not the only one. You're the only one between the two of us, however. I've heard a few people say that he played the role unevenly, evidenced by his lapse into (their words) 'the cartoonish' scene between he, that guy from The Office, and Brad Pitt. You know the one, the one at the end. I thought it fit a character that saw he was more or less in the free and clear but I guess an argument could be made that Waltz didn't sell it.

I haven't seen enough excellent performances this year to allow for picks in the supporting actor category. I know Mr. Waltz is going to be up for the award but I have no feeling, one way or the other, about his chances at winning. He's guaranteed to be up; how many characters dare you to like them the way he does in that movie?


Thu Nov 12, 2009 3:34 am
Post Re: Best Supporting Actor
Pedro wrote:
ed_metal_head wrote:
I guess they've fleshed out some of the supporting characters for the film because I can't remember anyone coming close to Judi Dench running time.

Nice threads btw, keep up the good work.


Isn't Judi Dench only in Shakespeare for eight minutes? Did I confuse the analogy? Or is Duvall only in it for, like, two minutes?

Danke for the kind words, sir.


Your analogy was perfect. It's just that Cormac McCarthy's novel is incredibly focused on the man and his son. I'd doubt that any of the supporting "characters" would be on the screen for even two minutes. I'm assuming that they might have added a few lines to the script since the supporting cast is played by Duvall, Theron and Pearce.


Thu Nov 12, 2009 2:38 pm
Post Re: Best Supporting Actor
I know it is HP, but Jim Broadbent was absolutely amazing as Professor Slughorn. I would love to see him get nominated, as unlikely as it is.


Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:22 pm
Post Re: Best Supporting Actor
I take back everything I said about Alfred Molina, because he got shafted at the Globes and SAGs.

SO.

Waltz
Harrelson
Tucci
Plummer
Molina

I think Molina will still somehow weasel his way in there, kind of like Michael Shannon did last year. Unless people decide Zack Galifianakis is Oscarworthy. That'd be funny.


Thu Dec 17, 2009 6:12 pm
Post Re: Best Supporting Actor
How about Jackie Earl Haley as Rorschach in Watchmen? Everyone seemed to agree that he was a bright spot in an otherwise underwhelming film, though I myself enjoyed Watchmen.

Pedro wrote:
Unless people decide Zack Galifianakis is Oscarworthy. That'd be funny.


Hahah that would actually be great. I know there is literally 0 chance of that happening be I loved that movie mainly because of him, he stole every scene.


Wed Dec 30, 2009 10:02 pm
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