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February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge" 
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Post February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
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Sun Feb 10, 2013 4:09 pm
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
I agree with just about every single one of your picks, except Best Makeup. Last year, remember how The Iron Lady, whose use of makeup was simply fine, ended up beating out Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2, which had all manner of creatures showcasing the extensive use of it? I think that this is Les Miserables' category to lose.

Everything else seems right. I agree with all of your locks from last week. Best Picture, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actor are still difficult categories for me to decide on, what with some saying that Lincoln, Riva (her birthday is Oscar night), and De Niro could upset. Not sure, but I'm sticking with Argo, Lawrence, and Jones for now. I would go so far as to say that Spielberg is a lock for Best Director, as is Lincoln for Best Adapted Screenplay. Sound Editing is tougher to decide. I can also imagine Argo and even Life of Pi winning, but Zero Dark Thirty seems like a strong choice. I doubt that it will go home empty-handed.


Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:22 pm
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
The idea of Argo winning Best Picture is an interesting one. The last time a Best Picture winner won less than three Oscars was.... Rebecca? I don't even know for sure. It's rare enough for a winner to win three Oscars, though that happened recently with Crash. What else does Argo win if it wins Best Picture? In my estimation, adapted screenplay, editing, score, and sound mixing are possible - in that order. None of those are guarantees, though. I could easily see Lincoln taking adapted screenplay, as well as Zero Dark Thirty or Lincoln taking editing. I have no clue what's happening in the score category. Sound mixing's the least likely of the four because Les Miz seems like a good bet, but eventual Best Picture winners fare decently in this category. Sound editing's a little different; that usually goes to a more action-oriented picture. Zero Dark Thirty or Skyfall seem like the frontrunners there. If nothing else, I think we can agree that Alan Arkin probably won't win for Best Supporting Actor.

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Sun Feb 10, 2013 5:51 pm
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
Pedro wrote:
The idea of Argo winning Best Picture is an interesting one. The last time a Best Picture winner won less than three Oscars was.... Rebecca? I don't even know for sure. It's rare enough for a winner to win three Oscars, though that happened recently with Crash. What else does Argo win if it wins Best Picture? In my estimation, adapted screenplay, editing, score, and sound mixing are possible - in that order. None of those are guarantees, though. I could easily see Lincoln taking adapted screenplay, as well as Zero Dark Thirty or Lincoln taking editing. I have no clue what's happening in the score category. Sound mixing's the least likely of the four because Les Miz seems like a good bet, but eventual Best Picture winners fare decently in this category. Sound editing's a little different; that usually goes to a more action-oriented picture. Zero Dark Thirty or Skyfall seem like the frontrunners there. If nothing else, I think we can agree that Alan Arkin probably won't win for Best Supporting Actor.


I was just coming to post something similar. I remember being shocked that Crash won with only 3, and yet Argo could win 2 or 1? Let's party like it's 1940

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Sun Feb 10, 2013 6:23 pm
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
I hope De Niro takes it for best supporting actor. I'm really rooting for him. And he'll probably be who I predict. Is it more wishful thinking than anything else? Perhaps. Probably. But I'm pulling for him. That said, I wouldn't complain about Christoph Waltz or Tommy Lee Jones winning since they are both superb. Especially Waltz whom I thought was the best thing about Django Unchained.


Mon Feb 11, 2013 12:04 am
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
I am glad that you analysts are considering Argo a lock for Best Picture. It was easily in my Top 3 for the year, and I read this wonderful article by another critic that said films like Argo deserve a lot of credit for being "supremely well-executed genre pieces". They're not "artsy" films aimed as Oscar-bait. That is why I myself love such films. And Argo is one of the best recent examples of a film that works on multiple levels, in the sense it is a mainstream film but also one where each individual filmmaking aspect isn't overlooked as in you can't find a lot of fault with on those terms. It may be the kind of film Hitchcock famously called a refrigerator film (although I don't buy that), but there's nothing wrong with that IMO. Besides Skyfall for Cinematography and Song, this is the one I really want. I don't care much for the rest of the awards anyways.

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Mon Feb 11, 2013 1:17 am
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
I wonder why it is surprising that your seeing an Argo surge and a Lincoln fizzle in each successive award show. Argo is the much more slickly entertaining and engaging movie where Hollywood saves the day while Lincoln though a good movie about an important event is a bit slow and built like reading a monument. Whether the majority Caucasian male septuagenarian voters of the Academy bail Lincoln out or go with Argo will be interesting to see. The best film way ahead of both should be Zero Dark Thirty and it's big copter crash outside the Hollywood compound was something to see. This is a definitive case of being shot down by the elusive Academy office politics. That Benh Zeitlin got nominated for his amateurish and nausea inducing can't find a simple tripod to save my life Beasts of the Southern Wild over Katheryn Bigelow's technical brilliance is a stain on the Academy for not rewarding excellence over mediocrity.

Shakespeare in Love did win with a surge but also was greatly helped by an all's well that ends well kind of rousing ending to the movie. Private Ryan was only gripping and memorable for the first thirty minutes and became quite a slog the rest of the way for the audience. Whether it deserved a Best Picture for only 30 good minutes is an interesting debate.


Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:08 am
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
IMO, Saving Private Ryan is a masterpiece. The whole movie is amazing, not just the first 30 minutes.

Shakespeare in Love winning over Private Ryan will forever be the biggest travesty the Academy has ever made.


Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:18 am
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
ilovemovies wrote:
IMO, Saving Private Ryan is a masterpiece. The whole movie is amazing, not just the first 30 minutes.

Shakespeare in Love winning over Private Ryan will forever be the biggest travesty the Academy has ever made.

agreed, Titanic winning over LA confidential was also BS, and i'm still dumbfounded as to how Crash won anything.


Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:23 am
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
I loved Titanic, so even though I do agree that L.A. Confidential should have won (although it's only my 2nd favorite movie of 1997, my favorite, Contact, wasn't even nominated), I'm not pissed about Titanic winning.

I was also fine with Crash winning. It's a better film than Brokeback Mountain IMO, although Munic is the movie that probably should have won. But I was fine with Crash taking it.

I know a lot of people loved The King's Speech, but IMO, it's one of the weakest best picture winners. I just didn't care for it. Black Swan was my favorite film of 2010. Although I was also would have been fine with it going to The Social Network or even Inception and The Fighter.


Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:50 am
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
To me Crash completely bungled it's message, the film just had far too many sterotypical characters and over-the-top situations for me to be able to take it even remotely seriously, and it was just too damn heavy-handed for my liking.


Mon Feb 11, 2013 4:58 am
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
The King's Speech (David Fincher, eat your heart out!), Slumdog Millionaire, The Artist etc. are all pretty clear indicators of the Academy deviating towards crowd-pleasers in recent years. In fact, even The Hurt Locker was a crowd-pleaser in other ways (though miles better than Avatar which was a great demo of new technology) with Bigelow becoming the first female director to take home both big honors. It can be said that Argo, in a sense, is also a crowd-pleaser as oakenshield32 has already pointed out. Hollywood saves the day! What better way to please the Academy than that? However, I personally feel that such a description would be short-selling Argo which is much, much superior in its craft than some of the other mentioned films. Like I said, I'd be very satisfied if it takes home BP. And it was great to see Affleck win Best Director at the BAFTAs. (Disclaimed: I haven't seen ZDT yet, catching it this weekend.)

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Mon Feb 11, 2013 5:29 am
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
I'll repeat what I said in my last post involving Oscar picks (minus the stuff about the Ravens):

The Academy should really consider broadening the Best Director category too. The director-- the one calling all the shots-- is the heart and soul of each of these movies, and I've never understood how you can honor a director with a nomination but leave his/her film out, and vice versa.

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Wed Feb 13, 2013 1:49 am
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
KWRoss wrote:
I'll repeat what I said in my last post involving Oscar picks (minus the stuff about the Ravens):

The Academy should really consider broadening the Best Director category too. The director-- the one calling all the shots-- is the heart and soul of each of these movies, and I've never understood how you can honor a director with a nomination but leave his/her film out, and vice versa.


I agree that if they're going to keep the Best Picture nominee numbers in the 8-10 range, the director category should also be expanded. But I think they should go back to five. At best, there are two or three legitimate contenders for the award. Why expand the list? (I know, I know - it's all about marketing and publicity.)


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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
James Berardinelli wrote:
KWRoss wrote:
I'll repeat what I said in my last post involving Oscar picks (minus the stuff about the Ravens):

The Academy should really consider broadening the Best Director category too. The director-- the one calling all the shots-- is the heart and soul of each of these movies, and I've never understood how you can honor a director with a nomination but leave his/her film out, and vice versa.


I agree that if they're going to keep the Best Picture nominee numbers in the 8-10 range, the director category should also be expanded. But I think they should go back to five. At best, there are two or three legitimate contenders for the award. Why expand the list? (I know, I know - it's all about marketing and publicity.)


I agree. So many of the 9 or so nominees have no chance whatsoever. I could be wrong, but didn't the Academy expand the BP nominees mainly because of that time The Dark Knight got snubbed? Having a "popular" movie in the mix increases ratings, after all.

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Thu Feb 14, 2013 12:32 am
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
I disagree on Argo winning Best Picture. The fact that it only has a chance at maybe one other award indicates that its support isn't really that strong.

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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
KWRoss wrote:
I agree. So many of the 9 or so nominees have no chance whatsoever. I could be wrong, but didn't the Academy expand the BP nominees mainly because of that time The Dark Knight got snubbed? Having a "popular" movie in the mix increases ratings, after all.

... which is rather ironic considering "The Dark Knight Rises" didn't get a single nomination this year -- not even in the technical categories. :?


Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:38 am
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
I personally think it's bullshit that The Dark Knight Rises didn't get any technical nominations. Say what you will about the movie. I know there were a lot of people who were disappointed by it (not me though) but you can not deny that it is deserving of at least some technical nominations.


Sat Feb 16, 2013 6:16 am
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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
ilovemovies wrote:
I personally think it's bullshit that The Dark Knight Rises didn't get any technical nominations. Say what you will about the movie. I know there were a lot of people who were disappointed by it (not me though) but you can not deny that it is deserving of at least some technical nominations.


Through no fault of its own, TDKR had a pall hanging over it that negatively impacted the way some people thought about the movie. I'm not saying that had the Aurora shootings not happened the film would have gotten Oscar nominations, but what happened in Colorado colored the overall perception of the film. The film-going community was not allowed to "celebrate" the movie's opening weekend because of the tragedy.


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Post Re: February 10, 2013: "2013 Oscars - Momentum Surge"
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Through no fault of its own, TDKR had a pall hanging over it that negatively impacted the way some people thought about the movie. I'm not saying that had the Aurora shootings not happened the film would have gotten Oscar nominations, but what happened in Colorado colored the overall perception of the film. The film-going community was not allowed to "celebrate" the movie's opening weekend because of the tragedy.


I thought this played into the lack of noms too. Honestly had Life of Pi not been released in 2012 The Dark Knight Rises would have likely gotten nods in the technical categories. Last year was pretty crowded for technically impressive movies. It didn't help that Les Miserables had great sound work either.


Tue Feb 26, 2013 7:59 pm
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