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February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks" 
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Post February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
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Sun Feb 03, 2013 7:19 pm
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
I'm really not sure that Amour is as big a lock as you think it is.

Pan's Labyrinth was nominated for six Oscars, won three, and yet lost to The Lives of Others, which is terrific but not as good.

Amelie was nominated for a bunch, but lost to No Man's Land, a decision I like in retrospect

So sometimes there are huge upsets in this category, due in part to the weird Byzantine nature of the voting

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Sun Feb 03, 2013 8:36 pm
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
Everyone in the running against DDL should start rehearsing right now: "It was an honor just to be nominated..."

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Sun Feb 03, 2013 8:40 pm
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
I can hardly wait for your Oscar competition James ;-)

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Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:10 pm
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
The thing is, one of the nominations that Amour gets is for Best Picture itself (The only foreign film to get that nomination), so that alone put its chance for Best Foreign Picture already at 90% for me.


Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:46 pm
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
peng wrote:
The thing is, one of the nominations that Amour gets is for Best Picture itself (The only foreign film to get that nomination), so that alone put its chance for Best Foreign Picture already at 90% for me.


In all honesty, I think it will win, it's just that the logic being used by James (and you) is largely irrelevant. The foreign language people are separate from the main body and so what else Amour is nominated for doesn't matteer

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Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:16 pm
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
I hope you're wrong about Cinematography, James. Can Roger Deakins please get a friggin Oscar already?


Mon Feb 04, 2013 12:38 am
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
In the best song category, I definitely agree with James that Adele will win for her great song in Skyfall. But I disagree with him when he says the other four nominees are not memorable. Everybody Needs a Best Friend from Ted is actually a great song IMO. If it weren't for Skyfall, that would be the one I'd be rooting for.

Before My Time is an interesting and cool song. Scarlett Johansson performs the song and she actually has a good, interesting and unique sounding voice that I really like.

Jennifer Lawrence is starting to look more and more like a lock as well. At this point, I'm pretty sure she'll win.


Mon Feb 04, 2013 12:41 am
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
BrianB wrote:
I hope you're wrong about Cinematography, James. Can Roger Deakins please get a friggin Oscar already?


Skyfall does have some outstanding cinematography. But Life of Pi is even better IMO.


Mon Feb 04, 2013 12:41 am
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
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Pan's Labyrinth was nominated for six Oscars, won three, and yet lost to The Lives of Others, which is terrific but not as good.


It is not an upset when the better movie wins instead of the overhyped critics and media darling. The Lives of Others is a much deeper and complex indictment of dysfunctional totalitarianism than the simplistic(& boring) revisionist fantasy of Pan's Labyrinth.


Mon Feb 04, 2013 12:44 am
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
I didn't see Life of Pi, but I get the impression from the previews that the visuals are heavily tweezed in post. That would mean that Skyfall is more "pure" in terms of cinematography--more directly a product of light being gathered by a lens.

That's not going to make a shit of difference to the Academy, of course.

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Mon Feb 04, 2013 1:15 am
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
oakenshield32 wrote:
Quote:
Pan's Labyrinth was nominated for six Oscars, won three, and yet lost to The Lives of Others, which is terrific but not as good.


It is not an upset when the better movie wins instead of the overhyped critics and media darling. The Lives of Others is a much deeper and complex indictment of dysfunctional totalitarianism than the simplistic(& boring) revisionist fantasy of Pan's Labyrinth.


This isn't the time or the place, but "simplistic revisionist fantasy" doesn't even really make sense for Pan's Labyrinth. That sounds like you took a quote from a review from Inglourious Basterds and re-purposed it.

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Mon Feb 04, 2013 7:23 am
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
JamesKunz wrote:
I'm really not sure that Amour is as big a lock as you think it is.

Pan's Labyrinth was nominated for six Oscars, won three, and yet lost to The Lives of Others, which is terrific but not as good.

Amelie was nominated for a bunch, but lost to No Man's Land, a decision I like in retrospect

So sometimes there are huge upsets in this category, due in part to the weird Byzantine nature of the voting


Both of those happened before they "reformed" the category. And in both cases, the actual winner was a known and respected film. This year, AMOUR is easily the most respected of the nominees.


Mon Feb 04, 2013 11:12 am
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
James Berardinelli wrote:
JamesKunz wrote:
I'm really not sure that Amour is as big a lock as you think it is.

Pan's Labyrinth was nominated for six Oscars, won three, and yet lost to The Lives of Others, which is terrific but not as good.

Amelie was nominated for a bunch, but lost to No Man's Land, a decision I like in retrospect

So sometimes there are huge upsets in this category, due in part to the weird Byzantine nature of the voting


Both of those happened before they "reformed" the category. And in both cases, the actual winner was a known and respected film. This year, AMOUR is easily the most respected of the nominees.


James, I'm surprised that you didn't include Best Director as a lock. If I recall correctly, you stated a few weeks ago that Spielberg would almost definitely win. Could the Academy swing in favor of David O. Russell, who is hated in quite a few circles, or do you think that Ang Lee could also stand a chance at winning? Ironic, seeing as Lee won in 2006, while Crash won Best Picture. I'm not including Zeitlin or Haneke, seeing as they both have zero chance of winning.

Wouldn't it be great if we could go back in time and re-do the Best Director category? It is truly where the Academy flounced things up this year. I would have given nods to Bigelow, Affleck, PTA, Haneke, and Spielberg. Aside from Best Director, Best Picture could also use a re-do, and I think that DiCaprio was more deserving of a Best Supporting Actor nod than Alan Arkin, but I guess that the Academy just hates him.


Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:59 pm
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
I wouldn't say the Academy hates Leo DiCaprio...he has been nominated 3 times before, although I admit he should've had about 6 nominations by now. Regardless, I still DiCaprio's time will come.

In a year like this it might be a bit presumptuous to casually ignore Haneke and Zeitlin. A LOT of love was required to get Zeitlin that nomination and there could be a possibility it could spill over into a win, although the possibility is low. The best director nominees may not be the most ideal, but it's different and I like that. I think it still boils down to Ang Lee or Steven Spielberg and I'm still leaning to Lee.
I do think a backlash is about to hit Lincoln.


Mon Feb 04, 2013 6:35 pm
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
Quote:
This isn't the time or the place, but "simplistic revisionist fantasy" doesn't even really make sense for Pan's Labyrinth. That sounds like you took a quote from a review from Inglourious Basterds and re-purposed it.


You have two parallel stories where one is a boring and dark Alice in Wonderland fantasy and the other is a boring and unlikely Spanish Maquis fantasy which does resemble Inglorious Basterds which is clever of you to see the similarity where I didn't. Thanks good catch. Though while Tarantino is not the visual stylist that Del Toro is he is the much better writer and storyteller.Live of Others beats it hands down and is probably one of the best movies of the decade.


Mon Feb 04, 2013 9:31 pm
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
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It's Superbowl Sunday, but I'm thinking about the Oscars (presumably because I can't generate much enthusiasm about either the 49ers or the Ravens)


Hmph... Well I for one summoned LOTS of enthusiasm for my Ravens. Having gone to school at Towson University and lived in the city of Baltimore for a few years, let me just say.....

RAVENS!!!!!!! SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! (Ray Lewis dance)



Okay now that's out of the way. Back on topic. Seriously, I believe that if Best Picture is expanded to 9 or 10 nominees, the same should be done with Best Director. After all, there is no stronger link between a movie and the person calling the shots on set.

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Tue Feb 05, 2013 1:49 am
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Post Re: February 03, 2013: "2013 Oscars - The Locks"
100% right about the locks. Guess that's why they're called "locks," huh? I have to give props to Day-Lewis for his acceptance speech, maybe not an instant classic, but it was funny and his demeanor was fantastic. I wouldn't have blamed him if he'd come off as a bit full of himself, after all he's the first-ever 3-time winner of the Best Actor statuette, but he wasn't. One of the few genuinely memorable moments of the Oscars broadcast, and all the more surprising given that he was one of the biggest slam dunks.


Mon Feb 25, 2013 2:48 pm
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