Without knowing anything about either War Horse or Extremely Loud other than what I can gather from the propaganda, they both look like vigorous Oscar-baition to me.

I enjoyed Extremely Loud, but I can see how if the kid didn't work for you the whole movie would be terrible.

I'm sad The Artist is getting this much attention. That movie just... ugh.

This is a mediocre year for me. Hugo, Drive, The Tree of Life, War Horse, etc... all meh, Nothing really blew me away with the exception of Melancholia and the documentary Senna. Maybe I've seen too many movies and I need to slip into some frame of mind with lower expectations. Maybe that's part of growing up. Or maybe this is just a mediocre year.

Here are Ebert's comments on the nominees.

He points out something interesting: the top two contenders are both movies about the love of movies.

As movies are becoming increasingly amorphous and crossbred with newer media/technologies, maybe this is the year in which we formally recognize that "movies", as codified by the Welles generation, are declining. That's not a statement about quality, so much as a statement about the advance of technology and the ongoing evolution of our culture.

What we now think of as "movies" (e.g. watching independent productions with avant-garde subect matter and homegrown digital effects on Netflix on your hard drive hooked up to your home widescreen!) would seem absolutely crazy to 20th century people who, from decades of experience, new damn well what a movie is.

It wouldn't have seemed crazy to them at all. They just would have seemed like bad movies. All this says is that standards have dropped.

I'm curious to know how many of the movies everyone has seen in each category. Here's my breakdown:
Picture: 6/9. I need to see The Descendants, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, and Moneyball.
Director: 4/5. Missing Descendants.
Actor: 1/5. I've only seen The Artist.
Actress: 1/5. I've only seen The Help.
Supporting Actor: 0/5.
Supporting Actress: 3/5. I need to see Bridesmaids and Albert Nobbs.
Adapted Screenplay: 1/5. Only Hugo.
Original Screenplay: 2/5. Only The Artist and Midnight in Paris.
Art Direction: 4/5. I didn't see Harry Potter, and I don't have much desire to.
Cinematography: 4/5. Need to see The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.
Costume Design: 2/5. Only Hugo and Artist. I might watch Jane Eyre at some point.
Film Editing: 2/5. Only Hugo and Artist.
Makeup: 0/3.
Original Score: 4/5. Need to see Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.
Original Song: 0/2.
Sound Editing: 2/5. Only Hugo and War Horse.
Sound Mixing: 2/5. See Sound Editing.
Visual Effects: 1/5. Everything is Hugo, I will go where you go...
Foreign Language Film: 0/5. That's gotta change.
Animated Feature Film: 1/5. Only Rango. I'm a little surprised Cars 2 didn't even get nominated, but I can't say I'm unhappy about it.
Documentary Feature: 0/5, but most of these look interesting.
And nothing from the shorts.

I'm generally bad at picking winners, but I usually like to pick a should win/will win every year, and so here's the 2012 edition:

BEST PICTURE

Should Win: The Artist or The Tree Of Life

Honestly, there isn't one film that stands out as head and shoulders above the rest here. This isn't like last year, when The Social Network was obviously the superior picture, or 2000, when Traffic was far and away the best nominee (and of course, both did not win). Extremely Loud, The Help, and War Horse are Oscar-bation, so I cross them off immediately. The Descendants, Hugo and Moneyball were good but not great, so they go. A Woody Allen film has already won, so I would not be inclined to give it to Midnight In Paris. So there's two left, and while The Tree Of Life isn't Malick's best work, it's ambitious and worthy of attention. But so is The Artist. I'm not sure. But on of those two should win.

Will Win: The Artist

The Tree Of Life is way, way too arty for the Academy. There's no way it's taking home Best Picture. So The Artist it is. I've heard some buzz for Hugo, but considering Scorsese recently won with The Departed, I just don't see him winning again so soon.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should Win: Terrence Malick, The Tree Of Life

Will Win: Michel Hazanavicus, The Artist

Malick has been making great films since the 1970s, and has never really been honored. He should be, but won't this time around. Picture and Director rarely split, so if The Artist wins Picture, Hazanavicus wins Director.

BEST ACTOR

Should Win: Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Will Win: Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Oldman should win - he's been turning in great performances for a long time and never received his due. Same goes for Brad Pitt, who's also nominated this year. However, the Globe wins by Clooney and Dujardin give the latter a boost, I think, especially considering that Clooney has won an Oscar before.

BEST ACTRESS

Should Win: Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Will Win: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Another case of an actor deserving their due. Close has been turning in a lot of great work, but she has done a great deal of acting on Broadway; her filmography is a lot more spartan than others. However, she'll lose to Streep, about as sure a bet as you can make.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should Win: Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Will Win: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

This is a tough call. Both actors have distinguished themselves with long careers, von Sydow through the films of Ingmar Bergman, and Plummer by working with directors such as Robert Wise, John Huston, Franco Zeffrelli, Terry Gilliam, Spike Lee, Michael Mann, and more recently, David Fincher. Neither has ever really been honored for their work. I'm a big fan of von Sydow, but if Plummer wins I won't complain.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should Win: Jessica Chastain, The Help

Will Win: Jessica Chastain, The Help

She should have been nominated for a different film, but she's had a hell of a year. Give her the Oscar.

Picture 8/9. Haven't seen Moneyball yet.
Director: 5/5.
Actor: 4/5. Missing Moneyball.
Actress: 2/5. Missing Albert Nobbs, The Iron Lady, My Week with Marilyn.
Supporting Actor: 1/5. Only saw Extremely Loud.
Supporting Actress: 4/5. Missing Albert Nobbs.
Adapted Screenplay: 4/5. Missing Moneyball. Damn, I need to see that.
Original Screenplay: 4/5. Missing Margin Call.
Art Direction: 5/5.
Cinematography: 5/5.
Costume Design: 3/5. Missing W.E. and Anonymous. No desire to see either.
Film Editing: 4/5. Moneyball.
Makeup: 1/3. Just Harry Potter.
Original Score: 4/5. No Tintin, will never see it. Hate motion cap.
Original Song: 1/2. Didn't see RIO.
Sound Editing: 4/5. Will never see Transformers.
Sound Mixing: 3/5. Extrapolate.
Visual Effects: 2/5. Just Hugo and Harry Potter.
Foreign Language Film: 1/5. Just A Separation.
Animated Feature Film: 2/5. Just Chico & Rita (excellent) and Kung Fu Panda 2.
Documentary Feature: 0/5. Zilch.
No shorts.

Total score: 67

Picture: 7/9. Missing The Descendants, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close.
Director: 4/5. Missing Descendants.
Actor: 2/5. The Artist, Moneyball.
Actress: 1/5. The Help.
Supporting Actor: 1/5. Moneyball.
Supporting Actress: 3/5. Missing Albert Nobbs and Bridesmaids.
Adapted Screenplay: 3/5. Hugo, Ides of March, Moneyball.
Original Screenplay: 2/5. The Artist, Midnight in Paris.
Art Direction: 5/5.
Cinematography: 4/5. Missing The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.
Costume Design: 2/5. Hugo, The Artist
Film Editing: 3/5. Hugo, The Artist, Moneyball.
Makeup: 1/3. Harry Potter
Original Score: 3/5. The Artist, Hugo, War Horse
Original Song: 1/2. The Muppets
Sound Editing: 3/5. Hugo, War Horse, Drive.
Sound Mixing: 3/5. Hugo, Moneyball, War Horse.
Visual Effects: 3/5. Harry Potter, Hugo, Planet of the Apes.
Foreign Language Film: 0/5.
Animated Feature Film: 1/5. Rango.

Saw some bits from the SAG Awards. A lot of relative upsets. I wonder how this will affect Oscars. I am OK with Clooney and Streep losing, but can't get rid of impression that The Help is a PC sentimental crap. I hope it doesn't go too far.

At this moment in time, I still need to see War Horse, A Better Life, Albert Nobbs, Warrior, Bridesmaids, Margin Call, Anonymous, W.E., Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Real Steel, Rio, Chico and Rita, A Cat in Paris, Kung Fu Panda 2, Bullhead, Footnote, In Darkness, Undefeated, If a Tree Falls, and Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory. I should be able to see all of these except for Footnote come Oscarcast.

I think there will be a split in the best picture / director categories. BEST PICTURE: THE ARTIST, BEST DIRECTOR: MALICK.

As someone who really enjoyed The Artist, and (while not enjoying it as much) admired the hell out of Tree of Life, that would be a great result.

I'll still root really hard for Hugo to sneak it out, though.

Best Picture: 7/9. All but "The Descendants" and "Near and Noisy"
Best Director 4/5: All but "The Descendants"
Best Actor 2/5: Pitt and Dujardin
Best Actress: 2/5: Viola Davis and Rooney Mara
Best Supporting Actor: 1/5 Jonah Hill
Best Supporting Actress: 3/5 Bejo, Chastain and Spenser All terrific.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay) 2/5 "Hugo" and "Moneyball"
Best Writing (Original Screenplay) 2/5 "The Artist" and "Midnight in Paris"
Best Art Direction 5/5
Best Cinematography 5/5
Best Costume Design: 2/5 "The Artist" and "Hugo." ("W.E." got an Oscar nomination.)
Best Film Editing: 4/5 All but "The Descendants"
Best Makeup: 1/3 Harry Potter
Best Music (Original Score) 4/5 All but "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
Best Music (Original Song) 1/2 "Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets"
Best Sound Editing 4/5: All but Transformers
Best Sound Mixing 4/5 the same
Best Visual Effects: 2/5 :"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2" and "Hugo"
Best Foreign Language Film: 0/5
Best Animated Feature Film 3/5 "Kung Fu Panda 2" "Puss in Boots" "Rango"
Best Documentary Feature 0/5
Best Documentary (Short Subject) 0/5
Best Short Film (Animated) 0/5 On the lookout for these.
Best Short Film (Live Action) 0/5

I've now seen one of the animated shorts, "The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore." It's well worth seeing, though it drags a bit. Some of the images are really beautiful.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adzywe9xeIU

The Pixar short, "La Luna," also looks beautiful, but I don't expect to see the whole thing until Brave comes out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CVtTOpgSyY

Supposedly "A Morning Stroll" is available online, but I haven't succeeded in watching it yet. From what I've seen, it's a pretty wild blend of different animation styles.
http://www.studioaka.co.uk/#/work-amorningstroll