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2012 Oscar Buzz 
Author Message
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Pedro wrote:
Image

Incomplete, but it's kind of a humorous look at how the critics awards are turning out.


I just wanted to say that this was all kinds of brilliant. You have leet graphic skills, yo.


Mon Dec 19, 2011 8:53 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Merry Christmas, ReelViews! My present to the board is my long-delayed supporting actress analysis. ....Fuck you, it's better than coal, or pictures of my dick.

PROBABLE LOCKS (maybe I could them locks at this point)
~Octavia Spencer for The Help

LOCKS TO-BE
~Jessica Chastain for The Help
~Bérénice Bejo for The Artist
~Shailene Woodley for The Descendants
~Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs
~Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids
~Vanessa Redgrave for Coriolanus

WILDCARD, BITCHES
~Carey FUCKIN' Mulligan for Shame
~Jessica Chastain for Take Shelter
~Jessica Chastain for The Tree of Life
~Jodie Foster for Carnage
~Kate Winslet for Carnage

VOTE SIPHONERS
~Jeannie Berlin for Margaret
~Anjelica Huston for 50/50
~Sandra Bullock for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
~Amy Ryan for Win Win

This category's always weird and this year is no exception. I literally don't feel comfortable calling anyone other than Octavia Spencer for a nomination. Don't get me wrong: most of the locks to-be will probably get nominated. However, I can see any of them of losing a bid for silly reasons. Before I cover that, though, it must be said: this award is Spencer's to lose.

Jessica Chastain is the strongest contender of the locks to-be, which is kind of amazing because she already has two really strong performances that are in contention (let alone what she did in The Debt and Coriolanus, films that no one cares about). One would think she'd cancel herself out and that's probably why no one acknowledged her as an awards threat until the end of the year. But hey, the precursors are pointing in a general direction and... there you have it. Bérénice Bejo, for whatever friggin' reason, missed out on an Indie Spirit nomination but whatever. She'll probably get in. For what it's worth, I think she's the most interesting part of The Artist. Shailene Woodley lost a SAG award nomination to Melissa McCarthy while Melissa McCarthy lost a Golden Globe nomination to Shailene Woodley. The smart money's on Woodley, but who knows? Maybe both of them will get in over Janet McTeer, who's been nominated by everything relevant but is in a film that hasn't been received as well as it could have been. Will the poor critical reception of Albert Nobbs hurt her chances? We shall see. Lastly, we have Vanessa Redgrave for Coriolanus. Like Jessica Chastain, she's kind of been blowing up this year, the only real difference being their age. Unfortunately, Redgrave, despite being overdue for that career Oscar, has lost a lost of traction by not being nominated for any precursor awards. Nonetheless, she's Vanessa Redgrave. The Academy voting folks might find it the right thing to do to nominate the fuck out of her.

Jodie Foster and Kate Winslet... it's like you nominated both, not one. There's no room for them, their presence in the Globes notwithstanding. The only real wildcard that has any semblance of a chance is Carey FUCKIN' Mulligan who's great in Michael Fassbender's Shame. Notice how it's not Carey FUCKIN' Mulligan's Shame, though there's a bit of that dynamic going on. No church in the wild.


Sun Dec 25, 2011 3:07 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
I actually did not care for Octavia Spencer in The Help. Thought she over-played the role. The other performances were pretty solid though.


Fri Dec 30, 2011 3:53 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
ed_metal_head wrote:
I actually did not care for Octavia Spencer in The Help. Thought she over-played the role. The other performances were pretty solid though.


Agreed. It doesn't help that she's at the center of the film's one big "should have been left on the cutting room floor" moment. Viola Davis and Jessica Chastain are much more deserving.


Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:15 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Blonde Almond wrote:
ed_metal_head wrote:
I actually did not care for Octavia Spencer in The Help. Thought she over-played the role. The other performances were pretty solid though.


Agreed. It doesn't help that she's at the center of the film's one big "should have been left on the cutting room floor" moment. Viola Davis and Jessica Chastain are much more deserving.

Doesn't mean she won't win, of course.


Fri Dec 30, 2011 9:42 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Of course.

See Bullock, Sandra.

Did you dudes know about this Best Picture rule-change?

Quote:
The potential for surprise is especially high in the best picture category. There, a change in the counting mechanism by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which awards the Oscars, has sharply diminished the impact of second-place, third-place and other votes down the ballot, while allowing a film with as few as 250 first-place votes, in a group with almost 6,000 members, to capture a nomination. So a very small, but committed, minority can add a picture to a roster of nominees that will range between 5 and 10, depending on how many hit a threshold set at 5 percent of the vote.


Source: NY Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/01/movies/awardsseason/overlooked-movies-of-2011.html


Sun Jan 01, 2012 11:29 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
ed_metal_head wrote:
Did you dudes know about this Best Picture rule-change?

Quote:
The potential for surprise is especially high in the best picture category. There, a change in the counting mechanism by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which awards the Oscars, has sharply diminished the impact of second-place, third-place and other votes down the ballot, while allowing a film with as few as 250 first-place votes, in a group with almost 6,000 members, to capture a nomination. So a very small, but committed, minority can add a picture to a roster of nominees that will range between 5 and 10, depending on how many hit a threshold set at 5 percent of the vote.


Source: NY Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/01/movies/awardsseason/overlooked-movies-of-2011.html

Yep. :lol:
Pedro wrote:
The second and more significant change is to the Best Picture category. Some of you know this already, but it is now possible to have between five and ten Best Picture nominees. Some of you don't know the math behind it. Let me explain. There are two rounds of voting. To even be considered for round two, 1% of the roughly 6000-member Academy need to vote a film at number one. To be considered a nominee, the number jumps to 5%. If a film reaches 5% early on, it's a shoo-in for a nomination. Makes sense yet? Yeah, me neither. "When thinking about how many nominees there are going to be ALL you have to think about is what will get 5% right away plus what piles (after a round of distributing surplus and under 1% votes) will have over 5% of ballots in the end." Clear as mud. BASICALLY: You need 300 #1 votes, probably less considering not every member of the Academy will vote.

I'm think I'm going to do a write-up of the animated category pretty quick here.


Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:44 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
And I deliver the animated analysis.

PROBABLE LOCKS
~Rango
~Puss in Boots

LOCKS TO-BE
~The Adventures of Tintin
~Arthur Christmas
~Cars 2
~Winnie the Pooh
~Chico and Rita
~Kung Fu Panda 2

WILDCARD, BITCHES
~Rio
~Happy Feet 2
~Alois Nebel

THE REST OF THE FIELD
~A Cat in Paris
~Gnomeo and Juliet
~Mars Needs Moms
~Wrinkles
~Hoodwinked Too!: Hood vs. Evil
~Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked

DECLARED INELIGIBLE
~The Smurfs

Okey dokey, Rango's going to win and it's primary competition is Puss in Boots. Pixar loses for once.

The next set of potential nominees are more interesting. I originally had Tintin as a lock, but it seems like the Academy isn't a huge fan of non-traditional animation. Waking Life and Beowulf, for different reasons, of course, failed to make the cut in years past. However, this is a well-reviewed Spielberg film that should play well as a film rather than as an attempt at using new technology. Arthur Christmas, the surprisingly good film that no one was looking forward to, should be able to squeeze in since we have five nominees. That fifth spot is up for debate. Some think it's Cars 2, because while Dreamworks has the Annie's by the balls, Pixar kind of has the Academy. Although Pixar hasn't bought them or whatever, they seem to have a fondness for even their lesser works. Cars 2 could sneak it. Or it could be those who dug Winnie the Pooh, happy to see him on the big screen after so long. Or it could be Kung Fu Panda 2, which people liked though most people would agree that it was more of the same. Or... it could be Chico and Rita, which the general consensus seems to be that this is the foreign film to watch out for.

Rio and Happy Feet 2, while being generally well-liked, haven't gotten too much attention in the awards circuit. The most interesting film on this list, for me anyway, is Alois Nebel, the Czech entry which may weasel its way into the foreign language category. Its focus is very Eastern European, though, so its appeal might be limited. It looks so cool, though!


Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:22 pm
Director

Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:44 pm
Posts: 1485
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Producers Guild nominees, they are sticking with 10

Quote:
THE ARTIST
Producer: Thomas Langmann
BRIDESMAIDS
Producers: Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel, Clayton Townsend
THE DESCENDANTS
Producers: Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
Producers: Ceán Chaffin, Scott Rudin
THE HELP
Producers: Michael Barnathan, Chris Columbus, Brunson Green
HUGO
Producers: Graham King, Martin Scorsese
THE IDES OF MARCH
Producers: George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Brian Oliver
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
Producers: Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum
MONEYBALL
Producers: Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt
WAR HORSE
Producers: Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg


Tue Jan 03, 2012 2:29 pm
Profile
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz

Yep. :lol:
Pedro wrote:
The second and more significant change is to the Best Picture category. Some of you know this already, but it is now possible to have between five and ten Best Picture nominees. Some of you don't know the math behind it. Let me explain. There are two rounds of voting. To even be considered for round two, 1% of the roughly 6000-member Academy need to vote a film at number one. To be considered a nominee, the number jumps to 5%. If a film reaches 5% early on, it's a shoo-in for a nomination. Makes sense yet? Yeah, me neither. "When thinking about how many nominees there are going to be ALL you have to think about is what will get 5% right away plus what piles (after a round of distributing surplus and under 1% votes) will have over 5% of ballots in the end." Clear as mud. BASICALLY: You need 300 #1 votes, probably less considering not every member of the Academy will vote.

I'm think I'm going to do a write-up of the animated category pretty quick here.[/quote]

Shit. I'm seriously embarrassed, man. Must have speed-read right over that. I should know better than to skim our resident oscar-prognosticator.

Pedro wrote:
And I deliver the animated analysis.


Do you know if we're officially having 5 nominees this year? I recall that some minimum number of titles had to be released in the LA market for 5 nominees.


Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:53 pm
Director

Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:44 pm
Posts: 1485
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Quote:
Lars Von Trier's ''Melancholia'' is the National Society of Film Critics' best picture of the year and earned best actress honors for star Kirsten Dunst, the org announced Saturday.

Terrence Malick was chosen as best director for ''The Tree of Life''''Moneyball's'' Brad Pitt earned lead actor honors, while Jessica Chastain and Albert Brooks were tapped for their supporting role


http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118048257#


Sat Jan 07, 2012 5:58 pm
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Director

Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:44 pm
Posts: 1485
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
DGA noms. this is shaping up to be the lamest Oscar field I can recall.

Quote:
The Directors Guild has announced the nominees for its 64th Annual DGA Awards, to be held on January 28. The DGA is a much larger and more populist voting group --14,000 strong--than the elite Oscar directors branch, which numbers around 400. While the DGA-winner does tend to match up with the Oscar-winner, the five nominees are not always the same. As expected, Oscar contenders Woody Allen ("Midnight in Paris"), Michel Hazanavicius ("The Artist"), Alexander Payne ("The Descendants") and Martin Scorsese ("Hugo") earned DGA nods. The huge surprise is the inclusion of David Fincher and "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," which continues to build strength in the awards race.

Left out, and continuing to show weakness is Steven Spielberg and "War Horse." Also omitted were relative outsiders Bennett Miller ("Moneyball"), Tate Taylor ("The Help") and Terrence Malick ("The Tree of Life")


Mon Jan 09, 2012 3:31 pm
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Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
calvero wrote:
DGA noms. this is shaping up to be the lamest Oscar field I can recall.

Quote:
The Directors Guild has announced the nominees for its 64th Annual DGA Awards, to be held on January 28. The DGA is a much larger and more populist voting group --14,000 strong--than the elite Oscar directors branch, which numbers around 400. While the DGA-winner does tend to match up with the Oscar-winner, the five nominees are not always the same. As expected, Oscar contenders Woody Allen ("Midnight in Paris"), Michel Hazanavicius ("The Artist"), Alexander Payne ("The Descendants") and Martin Scorsese ("Hugo") earned DGA nods. The huge surprise is the inclusion of David Fincher and "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo," which continues to build strength in the awards race.

Left out, and continuing to show weakness is Steven Spielberg and "War Horse." Also omitted were relative outsiders Bennett Miller ("Moneyball"), Tate Taylor ("The Help") and Terrence Malick ("The Tree of Life")


What 5 would you nominate, calvy?


Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:50 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
The DGAs put out the worry that was beginning to bubble in my head that The Ides of March was going to be a very strong contender. It might be able to score a screenplay nomination, but that's about it. Now I'm starting to wonder what The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo can eek out of AMPAS.

I'll see if I can analyze the potential writing nominations. I'm sick; I have nothing better to do. :lol:


Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:10 pm
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Posts: 1324
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Pedro wrote:
Now I'm starting to wonder what The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo can eek out of AMPAS.


As in :o ? :lol:


Mon Jan 09, 2012 9:28 pm
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Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Quote:
What 5 would you nominate, calvy?


haven't seen much this year, but not a fan of The Descendants or The Artist(looks like it will come down to those 2 for best picture)
And Midnight In Paris is nice & all, but doesn't it seem like a joke that this will be the first Woody Allen best pic nominee since Hannah & Her Sisters?

have no desire to see Hugo, Tree of Life, The Help, Moneyball, War Horse.

I guess Martha Marcy was the best film I saw this year.

Am curious about Shame, A Separation, Take Shelter, Margin Call


Mon Jan 09, 2012 9:56 pm
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Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
calvero wrote:
Quote:
What 5 would you nominate, calvy?


haven't seen much this year, but not a fan of The Descendants or The Artist(looks like it will come down to those 2 for best picture)
And Midnight In Paris is nice & all, but doesn't it seem like a joke that this will be the first Woody Allen best pic nominee since Hannah & Her Sisters?

have no desire to see Hugo, Tree of Life, The Help, Moneyball, War Horse.

I guess Martha Marcy was the best film I saw this year.

Am curious about Shame, A Separation, Take Shelter, Margin Call

And Martha Marcy has more or less lost its bid for Best Actress. No one really cares about that film. People should, but they don't. Such is life.


Mon Jan 09, 2012 10:01 pm
Director

Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:44 pm
Posts: 1485
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Quote:
And Martha Marcy has more or less lost its bid for Best Actress


There have been many surprise nominees over the years, it probably still has a shot.


Mon Jan 09, 2012 10:11 pm
Profile
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
calvero wrote:
haven't seen much this year, but not a fan of The Descendants or The Artist(looks like it will come down to those 2 for best picture)


That would be a bummer if that did happen. I've seen The Descendants, and while I did like it, I can't call it a special film in any way. Certainly not Best Picture worthy (whatever the hell that means), and not even in my top 10 for the year. To me it was just a regular old good movie.

I haven't seen The Artist, but I keep getting the feeling that it's being shoved down our throats as being "important". Maybe it is (my guess is it isn't), but I don't think anyone likes being told what they should and shouldn't like. The only person (i.e. non-critic) I know that absolutely loves it happens to be a guy who works for a university in the film department. His specialty? Silent film.

calvero wrote:
And Midnight In Paris is nice & all, but doesn't it seem like a joke that this will be the first Woody Allen best pic nominee since Hannah & Her Sisters?


You know, I hadn't thought of it like that. I was just happy to see Allen getting some attention for a legitimately good movie. When you put it like that though, yeah, I guess it kind of is a joke.


Tue Jan 10, 2012 10:33 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
I'm not sure where else to post this, but every year the San Rafael Film Center does this showcase of Oscar selections for Best Foreign Language Film and this year they pick things that make me happy. (Last year they didn't.) Two years ago, I saw Winter in Wartime, Terribly Happy, Letters to Father Jacob, and Involuntary. This Saturday, I will be seeing The Turin Horse (d. Bela Tarr, Hungary) and Monsieur Lazhar (d. some Canadian, Canada).

I've never been so excited to see a thirty minute take of potatoes boiling.

(Given that The Turin Horse is supposedly Bela Tarr's last film, I wonder if the foreign language committee will pick this film as one of their three for the nine-film shortlist.)


Thu Jan 12, 2012 5:10 am
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