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2012 Oscar Buzz 
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Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
I really, really, really want Fassbender to get a nomination or something. I'm surprised that his Shame performance is more buzz-worthy though. Or rather, I'm surprised that his Shame performance is more Academy buzz-worthy. The tamer rough-bondage sex in A Dangerous Method sounds relatively safer for the Academy.

Blonde Almond wrote:
Pedro wrote:
A quick note on Thomas Horn and Asa Butterfield: they are unquestionably the leads in their respective films, but I've been reading that Butterfield is going to be campaigned for Supporting Actor? Why, because he's young? That's just dishonest. I always pretend to believe that the Academy is above category fraud, but let's face it, they're not. To top it off, neither child has the magnetism that Hailee Steinfeld had to be incorrectly nominated. Balls.


There's been quite a few strong child performances this year, from Tree of Life and Super 8 to Hugo and We Bought A Zoo. It seems like the Academy in recent years doesn't seem to know what to do with them, as the Hailee Steinfeld situation last year showed. Maybe a Best Child Actor award should be created?


No thanks. How many award-worthy child performances are there per year? I fear the trailer for Hotel for Dogs 2 will carry an "Oscar Nominee" sticker.


Mon Nov 28, 2011 9:04 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
ed_metal_head wrote:
I really, really, really want Fassbender to get a nomination or something. I'm surprised that his Shame performance is more buzz-worthy though. Or rather, I'm surprised that his Shame performance is more Academy buzz-worthy. The tamer rough-bondage sex in A Dangerous Method sounds relatively safer for the Academy.

Blonde Almond wrote:
Pedro wrote:
A quick note on Thomas Horn and Asa Butterfield: they are unquestionably the leads in their respective films, but I've been reading that Butterfield is going to be campaigned for Supporting Actor? Why, because he's young? That's just dishonest. I always pretend to believe that the Academy is above category fraud, but let's face it, they're not. To top it off, neither child has the magnetism that Hailee Steinfeld had to be incorrectly nominated. Balls.


There's been quite a few strong child performances this year, from Tree of Life and Super 8 to Hugo and We Bought A Zoo. It seems like the Academy in recent years doesn't seem to know what to do with them, as the Hailee Steinfeld situation last year showed. Maybe a Best Child Actor award should be created?


No thanks. How many award-worthy child performances are there per year? I fear the trailer for Hotel for Dogs 2 will carry an "Oscar Nominee" sticker.

Well, in Super 8, there's at least five. If they were to use similar rules they use for Best Animated Feature, they could probably get away with it. I'd rather they didn't, though.

SIDE NOTE because I'm not getting to this for a while: I encourage everyone to check out Drive's screenplay. It's insanely detailed and for that alone it should score a nomination. Preview: it won't.


Mon Nov 28, 2011 9:12 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
ed_metal_head wrote:
Blonde Almond wrote:
Pedro wrote:
A quick note on Thomas Horn and Asa Butterfield: they are unquestionably the leads in their respective films, but I've been reading that Butterfield is going to be campaigned for Supporting Actor? Why, because he's young? That's just dishonest. I always pretend to believe that the Academy is above category fraud, but let's face it, they're not. To top it off, neither child has the magnetism that Hailee Steinfeld had to be incorrectly nominated. Balls.


There's been quite a few strong child performances this year, from Tree of Life and Super 8 to Hugo and We Bought A Zoo. It seems like the Academy in recent years doesn't seem to know what to do with them, as the Hailee Steinfeld situation last year showed. Maybe a Best Child Actor award should be created?


No thanks. How many award-worthy child performances are there per year? I fear the trailer for Hotel for Dogs 2 will carry an "Oscar Nominee" sticker.


I don't know, I think you could come up with three legitimately strong contenders per year. There weren't many more memorable performances in 2010 than Chloë Grace Moretz in Kick-Ass. What about her and Kodi Smit-McPhee in Let Me In? Or going back even further, McPhee in The Road, or Dillon Freasier in There Will Be Blood? This year Asa Butterfield, Hunter McCracken, Joel Courtney, and Elle Fanning all give memorable performances that have no chance of getting recognized. I wouldn't mind seeing it.

I doubt any of the audience for Hotel For Dogs 2 would need the "Oscar nominee" sticker to get them into theaters.


Mon Nov 28, 2011 9:17 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Blonde Almond wrote:
I don't know, I think you could come up with three legitimately strong contenders per year. There weren't many more memorable performances in 2010 than Chloë Grace Moretz in Kick-Ass. What about her and Kodi Smit-McPhee in Let Me In? Or going back even further, McPhee in The Road, or Dillon Freasier in There Will Be Blood? This year Asa Butterfield, Hunter McCracken, Joel Courtney, and Elle Fanning all give memorable performances that have no chance of getting recognized. I wouldn't mind seeing it.

I doubt most of the audience for Hotel For Dogs 2 would need the "Oscar nominee" sticker to get them into theaters.

That's true, but doesn't the phrase "Oscar-nominee Norbit" make you at least a little bit upset for no legitimate reason? I know it makes me at least a little bit upset for no legitimate reason. :lol:

There are certainly memorable child performances scattered throughout history, but making a category out of it is like saying, "We'll never like you enough to nominate you with the big boys." It's bad enough we have animated, documentary, and foreign categories. If they're going to create a child category, they should create an experimental film category, too. I imagine those are on the bottom of the priority list for AMPAS, though.


Mon Nov 28, 2011 9:21 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Pedro wrote:
There are certainly memorable child performances scattered throughout history, but making a category out of it is like saying, "We'll never like you enough to nominate you with the big boys."


I guess, although I don't think it's any better when they do nominate someone and throw them in the wrong category. Did they honestly think Steinfeld was a supporting player last year, or did they put her there because they didn't think she had a chance or held enough stature to be worthy in the Best Actress category?

I get where you and ed are coming from though. The Oscars are certainly already long enough as it is. Maybe I'll have to find a place for them in the nominations for the Reelviews Oscars!

Concerning Best Actor, I would say Clooney and Dujardin are definites, and from what everybody seems to be saying it would be shameful is Fassbender didn't make the cut. Oldman is due for a nomination; considering how many great performances he's given over the years without being recognized in the U.S., I would say this could be his time. I'm not sure I completely buy the nomination for Brad Pitt; he's certainly very good in Moneyball, but it doesn't seem like an awards-courting performance. I'm thinking, despite the turgid reception of the film, they just might go with DiCaprio anyway.


Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:18 pm
Director

Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:44 pm
Posts: 1440
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
it begins

New York Film Critics Awards

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius The Artist
Best Actor: Brad Pitt Tree Of Life and Moneyball
Best Actress: Meryl Streep The Iron Lady
Best Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks Drive
Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain Tree Of Life, The Help, Take Shelter
Best Screenplay: Steve Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin Moneyball
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki Tree Of Life
Best First Feature: Margin Call
Best Documentary: Cave Of Forgotten Dreams


Tue Nov 29, 2011 2:33 pm
Profile
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
CALVERO YOU BEAT ME. Haha no worries, because I'll post the Indie Spirits!

Best Feature:
50/50
Beginners
Drive
Take Shelter
The Artist
The Descendants

Best Director category:
Mike Mills (Beginners)
Nicholas W Refn ( Drive)
Jeff Nichols (Take Shelter)
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)

Best Int’l Film:
A Separation
Melancholia
Shame
The Kid With a Bike
Tyrranasaur

Best Male Lead:
Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Ryan Gosling (Drive)
Woody Harrelson (Rampart)
Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)

Best Female Lead:
Lauren Ambrose (Think of Me)
Rachel Harris (Natural Selection)
Adepero Oduye (Pariah)
Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

Best Supp Male:
Albert Brooks (Drive)
John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
John C. Reilly (Cedar Rapids)
Corey SToll (Midnight in Paris)

Best Supp. Female:
Jessica Chastain (Take Shelter)
Angelica Huston (50/50)
Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
Harmony Santana (Gun Hll Road)
Shaileen Woodley (The Descendants)

Best Doc:
An African Selection
Bill Cunningham New York
The Interrupters
The Redemption of General Butt Naked (Uhhhhhhhhhhhhh, wut)
We Were Here

Best Screenplay:
Joseph Cedar (FootNote)
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Tom McCarthy (Win Win)
Mike Mills (Beginners)
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash (The Descendants)

Best 1st Screenplay
Mike Cahill & Brit Marling (Another Earth)
J.C. Chandor (Margin Call)
Patrick DeWitt (Terri)
Phil Johnston (Cedar Rapids)
Will Reiser (50/50)

Best Cinematography:
Joel Hodge (Bellflower)
Benjamin Kuh-Sulk (The Off Hours)
Darius Kond-Jee (Midnight in Paris)
Gui-omme Shiffman (The Artist)
Jeffrey Waldron (The Dynamiter)

John Cassavetes Award (films made for under $500,000):
Bellflower
Circumstance,
Hello Lonesome
Pariah
The Dynamiter

Best First Feature noms:
Another Earth
In The Family
Margin Call
Martha Marcy May Marlene
Natural Selection

Robert Altman Award for one film’s director, casting director and ensemble:
Margin Call


Tue Nov 29, 2011 2:53 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
calvero wrote:
it begins

New York Film Critics Awards

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius The Artist
Best Actor: Brad Pitt Tree Of Life and Moneyball
Best Actress: Meryl Streep The Iron Lady
Best Supporting Actor: Albert Brooks Drive
Best Supporting Actress: Jessica Chastain Tree Of Life, The Help, Take Shelter
Best Screenplay: Steve Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin Moneyball
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki Tree Of Life
Best First Feature: Margin Call
Best Documentary: Cave Of Forgotten Dreams


There's a number of interesting things to take note of here, the most important of which is the presence of The Artist. I said a few posts back, "If you were to ask me who wins Best Picture right now, I'd say The Artist." With the NYFCC Awards, we see our first sign of movement in that general direction. Kris Tapley was pretty upset at Hazanavicius winning Director because there's a million others to choose from (McQueen and Malick most notably), but whether or not he deserves it, he must now be considered a threat. If he starts winning more critics awards, he will assume the position of frontrunner to win. That's Oscar politics, I suppose.

The NYFCC bitched out and picked Brad Pitt and Jessica Chastain for being awesome rather than being awesome in one film, but it's important to note that these two performers, and Moneyball and The Help, respectively, have gained significant traction. This is the first step in getting noticed for a nomination and they've secured it. I don't know if Pitt will be nominated in such a crowded category and I don't know if Chastain will be nomination in such a weak category, but they're to be taken more seriously now.

This bit of information colors my developing commentary on Best Actress. If nothing else, it reminds me that people haven't forgotten who Meryl Streep is. In terms of a winner, I'd say wait for a few more awards.

Gun to my head, A Separation takes Best Foreign Language Film.

How about that Margin Call? Maybe it can secure a screenplay nomination or something.


Tue Nov 29, 2011 3:05 pm
Director

Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:44 pm
Posts: 1440
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
national board of review winners (which apparently didn't get to see "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" in time for consideration)

Best Film: "Hugo"

Best Director: Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"

Best Actor: George Clooney, "The Descendants"

Best Actress: Tilda Swinton, "We Need to Talk About Kevin"

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"

Best Supporting Actress: Shailene Woodley, "The Descendants"

Best Original Screenplay: Will Reiser, "50/50

Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, "The Descendants"

Best Animated Feature: "Rango"

Breakthrough Performance: Felicity Jones, "Like Crazy"

Breakthrough Performance: Rooney Mara, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

Debut Director: J.C. Chandor, "Margin Call"

Best Ensemble: "The Help"

Spotlight Award: Michael Fassbender ("A Dangerous Method," "Jane Eyre," "Shame," "X-Men: First Class")

NBR Freedom of Expression: "Crime After Crime"

NBR Freedom of Expression: "Pariah"

Best Foreign Language Film: "A Separation"

Best Documentary: "Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory"

Special Achievement in Filmmaking: The Harry Potter Franchise - A Distinguished Translation from Book to Film

Top Films
(in alphabetical order)
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
Tree of Life
War Horse

Top 5 Foreign Language Films
(In Alphabetical Order)
13 Assassins
Elite Squad: The Enemy Within
Footnote
Le Havre
Point Blank

Top 5 Documentaries
(In Alphabetical Order)
Born to be Wild
Buck
George Harrison: Living in the Material World
Project Nim
Senna

Top 10 Independent Films
(In Alphabetical Order)
50/50
Another Earth
Beginners
A Better Life
Cedar Rapids
Margin Call
Shame
Take Shelter
We Need To Talk About Kevin
Win Win


Thu Dec 01, 2011 7:36 pm
Profile
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
And now... Best Actress! Go me for having a quicker turnaround rate.

PROBABLE LOCKS
~Viola Davis for The Help
~Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady

LOCKS TO-BE
~Michelle Williams for My Week With Marilyn
~Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs
~Charlize Theron for Young Adult
~Elizabeth Olsen for Martha Marcy May Marlene

WILDCARD, BITCHES
~Rooney Mara for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
~Keira Knightley for A Dangerous Method
~Tilda Swinton for We Need to Talk About Kevin
~Kirsten Dunst for Melancholia

VOTE SIPHONERS
~Adepero Oduye for Pariah
~Felicity Jones for Like Crazy
~Olivia Colman for Tyrannosaur
~Mia Wasikowska for Jane Eyre
~Kristen Wiig for Bridesmaids

Until the awards started coming in, gun to my head, I would have said Viola Davis takes the award. Now I'm not so sure. I guess it's between Davis and Streep at this point, but the important part is that both of them will be nominated. Nothing can take that away from them. Nothing. Meryl Streep could eat ten babies and the bones of Ronald Reagan and she'd still be nominated. I don't feel as confident saying that about Viola Davis, but she could probably get away with eating one baby.

The locks to-be is a more interesting section because all four of them are worthy of a nomination, from what I hear anyway. Michelle Williams seems to have the most traction of the four because My Week With Marilyn has been building some buzz for a little while and its box office performance isn't a disaster. People seem to genuinely like the film and, let's be honest, who can deny the appeal of someone like Marilyn Monroe? If the performance was perfunctory, that'd be one thing, but Williams knocks it out of the park. She could probably be in the probably locks section. The other three don't have it as easy. Glenn Close and Elizabeth Olsen face an uphill battle because their films haven't been performing the way others have anticipated. In addition, Albert Nobbs isn't being received particularly well. The five-time loser Glenn Close may mean something to some people, but if the film is too middling, it might hurt her a la DiCaprio. We'll see. Charlize Theron's primary obstacle is the comedy nature of Young Adult, but I think people can get over that. I feel like Glenn Close and Elizabeth Olsen are the weak links; maybe both of them won't make the cut. Let's take a look at the wildcards.

Rooney Mara! The NYFCC saw The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and still gave their award to Streep. The NBR gave theirs to Tilda Swinton. Mara's performance might not great, but it could be good enough to score a nomination especially if people remember Noomi Rapace. It could be a case of, "We didn't nominate her, but we'll nominate you because you're American." This is obviously not how the Academy thinks, but I'm sure it's in the back of some of the voters's minds. We'll see what happens when the film goes wide. Keira Knightley has gotten quite a few raves for what she's done in A Dangerous Method, but I fear some people might be turned off by her character. America isn't so keen on fiercely sexual women. Maybe her accent might throw some people off, too? She doesn't sound particularly Russian, but it's hard to tell from the trailer. Tilda Swinton got a much needed precursor win from the NBR and thank God. She consistently does excellent work in smaller films that never get noticed. This is a step in the right direction, but it's still an uphill battle. Finally, you can't rule out Kirsten Dunst for Melancholia, but the performers of Lars von Trier's work never seem to get the recognition they deserve. James has murmured about eligibility issues, but none of the other Oscar bloggers seem to be talking about it so there you go.


Fri Dec 02, 2011 6:50 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Quote:
I said a few posts back, "If you were to ask me who wins Best Picture right now, I'd say The Artist." With the NYFCC Awards, we see our first sign of movement in that general direction.


I wouldn't bet your life on that one. Wait until you see it. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if Hugo gets it just so that they can avoid giving it to the Artist.


Fri Dec 02, 2011 7:48 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
MGamesCook wrote:
Wait until you see it.


I'll avoid the obvious joke here and instead ask since when has actual quality been relevant in the Oscars? They haven't named the year's best film as Best Picture in my lifetime (27 years). The Artist seemed somewhat intriguing initially but at this point my interest is low. That has nothing to do with the fact that I think it's probably the closest thing you could call a frontrunner right now.


Fri Dec 02, 2011 9:00 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
MGamesCook wrote:
Quote:
I said a few posts back, "If you were to ask me who wins Best Picture right now, I'd say The Artist." With the NYFCC Awards, we see our first sign of movement in that general direction.


I wouldn't bet your life on that one. Wait until you see it. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if Hugo gets it just so that they can avoid giving it to the Artist.

I wouldn't bet my life on anything Oscar-related. But yeah, following up on what Shade said, this topic isn't necessarily about what deserves a nomination. At the very least, that's not what I'm doing. I analyze the Oscars from a detached point of view for prediction purposes and that won't change during my time here.

There's no clear frontrunner for Best Picture right now, but again, if I had to pick, it's The Artist. I'm seeing the film tomorrow. I'd be surprised if we share opinions.


Fri Dec 02, 2011 11:33 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Pedro wrote:
There's a number of interesting things to take note of here, the most important of which is the presence of The Artist. I said a few posts back, "If you were to ask me who wins Best Picture right now, I'd say The Artist." With the NYFCC Awards, we see our first sign of movement in that general direction. Kris Tapley was pretty upset at Hazanavicius winning Director because there's a million others to choose from (McQueen and Malick most notably), but whether or not he deserves it, he must now be considered a threat. If he starts winning more critics awards, he will assume the position of frontrunner to win. That's Oscar politics, I suppose.


But The Social Network won virtually every single critic-award and was also considered a huge favourite. Then we got to the award shows that have some overlap with oscar voters (SAG, DGA, PGA etc. etc.) and suddenly The King's Speech was a massive favourite. I'm not saying The Artist won't be the favourite or that it won't win, but isn't it too early to tell what the oscar voters will do?


Sat Dec 03, 2011 2:44 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Quote:
I wouldn't bet my life on anything Oscar-related. But yeah, following up on what Shade said, this topic isn't necessarily about what deserves a nomination. At the very least, that's not what I'm doing. I analyze the Oscars from a detached point of view for prediction purposes and that won't change during my time here.

There's no clear frontrunner for Best Picture right now, but again, if I had to pick, it's The Artist. I'm seeing the film tomorrow. I'd be surprised if we share opinions.


If your perspective is truly detached, all the more reason why you should see the ultimate failing of The Artist. I expected a Juno-ish cutsy movie, but instead it's more like I'm Not There; completely niche, obscure, and alienating to the mainstream. Is there really no chance for War Horse? From what I've seen so far, it looks both awesome and incredibly Oscar-friendly. I would be shocked if Spielberg makes it to 2013 without a third Oscar in his cap, either from Horse or Lincoln.


Sat Dec 03, 2011 3:33 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Pedro wrote:
I analyze the Oscars from a detached point of view for prediction purposes and that won't change during my time here.


That's what I enjoy so much about reading these things. I don't have much to offer other than my opinions on what I've seen. I like following the races even if, like Shade said, the Oscars aren't exactly the best barometer of quality. Pedro does a great job of updating us on what's currently happening with the races. The guy's plugged in. He knows his shit. He's accurate and current with what's happening and he doesn't hesitate to change his predictions based on recent developments. I dig that. It's about as objective a take as I've come across.


Sat Dec 03, 2011 5:24 pm
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Posts: 1226
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
MGamesCook wrote:
If Drive gets nominated, it'll represent a new low for the Oscars; yes, worse than Blind Side.


I think you may need a lobotomy after that statement, my friend. :?

Anyway, as long as this year's presumed blatant, down-the-middle piece of Oscar bait ("The Help") doesn't get TOO much recognition, I'll be content. :|


Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:08 pm
Profile
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
ed_metal_head wrote:
Pedro wrote:
There's a number of interesting things to take note of here, the most important of which is the presence of The Artist. I said a few posts back, "If you were to ask me who wins Best Picture right now, I'd say The Artist." With the NYFCC Awards, we see our first sign of movement in that general direction. Kris Tapley was pretty upset at Hazanavicius winning Director because there's a million others to choose from (McQueen and Malick most notably), but whether or not he deserves it, he must now be considered a threat. If he starts winning more critics awards, he will assume the position of frontrunner to win. That's Oscar politics, I suppose.


But The Social Network won virtually every single critic-award and was also considered a huge favourite. Then we got to the award shows that have some overlap with oscar voters (SAG, DGA, PGA etc. etc.) and suddenly The King's Speech was a massive favourite. I'm not saying The Artist won't be the favourite or that it won't win, but isn't it too early to tell what the oscar voters will do?

That overlap is when some would say the tides turned, a very likely scenario in prognosticating. Ed, The Social Network was the favorite because the data said so. Then The King's Speech became the data because the data said so. Right now, The Artist is the favorite because the data says so. Will the release of War Horse change that? I have no idea, but it's certainly possible.

MGamesCook wrote:
If your perspective is truly detached, all the more reason why you should see the ultimate failing of The Artist. I expected a Juno-ish cutsy movie, but instead it's more like I'm Not There
I'm Not There is like I'm Not There. I think you're letting your own opinion of the film interfere with your analysis. Academy voters aren't mainstream audiences. If they were, we'd be talking about The Muppets.

And thanks for the kind words, Pete. You're a good guy.


Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:55 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Pedro wrote:
ed_metal_head wrote:
Pedro wrote:
There's a number of interesting things to take note of here, the most important of which is the presence of The Artist. I said a few posts back, "If you were to ask me who wins Best Picture right now, I'd say The Artist." With the NYFCC Awards, we see our first sign of movement in that general direction. Kris Tapley was pretty upset at Hazanavicius winning Director because there's a million others to choose from (McQueen and Malick most notably), but whether or not he deserves it, he must now be considered a threat. If he starts winning more critics awards, he will assume the position of frontrunner to win. That's Oscar politics, I suppose.


But The Social Network won virtually every single critic-award and was also considered a huge favourite. Then we got to the award shows that have some overlap with oscar voters (SAG, DGA, PGA etc. etc.) and suddenly The King's Speech was a massive favourite. I'm not saying The Artist won't be the favourite or that it won't win, but isn't it too early to tell what the oscar voters will do?

That overlap is when some would say the tides turned, a very likely scenario in prognosticating. Ed, The Social Network was the favorite because the data said so. Then The King's Speech became the data because the data said so. Right now, The Artist is the favorite because the data says so. Will the release of War Horse change that? I have no idea, but it's certainly possible.


Oh, I totally get what you're saying. However my point is that the tides might not have ever really turned. They were always headed in the one direction. But far from the shore the tides were going strongly in the other direction so a lot of folks thought that would be the case nearer to the shore. It wasn't. Did I just try to make a point using tides? What the furk? Anyway, I don't mean to sound testy or like I'm doubting you. I'm just wondering if it's makes sense to read the data and start prognosticating at such an early stage?


Mon Dec 05, 2011 8:45 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
ed_metal_head wrote:
Oh, I totally get what you're saying. However my point is that the tides might not have ever really turned. They were always headed in the one direction. But far from the shore the tides were going strongly in the other direction so a lot of folks thought that would be the case nearer to the shore. It wasn't. Did I just try to make a point using tides? What the furk? Anyway, I don't mean to sound testy or like I'm doubting you. I'm just wondering if it's makes sense to read the data and start prognosticating at such an early stage?

Shhhhh, some of us don't have much else to do. :lol:


Mon Dec 05, 2011 11:10 pm
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