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2012 Oscar Buzz 
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Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
MGamesCook wrote:
I beg to differ. People on this forum love it. Critics love it. However, Oscars also have a lot to do with:

1. Voters who don't fall into one of those categories.

2. Casual moviegoers, whose reception of the film is at best mixed/puzzled/indifferent.

The film has not made enough money to be a sleeper hit. It has a pretty decent chance of gaining cult status on DVD, but that won't win it any Oscars.


I disagree on whether or not it deserves it, but I totally agree that it has no chance to win anything. It hasn't gained any significant traction and will indeed be pushed away by the mass of contenders in the coming months, and if Gosling gets a nod, it'll be for Ides of March.


Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:02 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
MGamesCook wrote:
ilovemovies wrote:
It's one of the best reviewed movies of the year. Look, I'm not crazy about the movie either, but people do love it, so I could definitely see it being a contender.


I beg to differ. People on this forum love it. Critics love it. However, Oscars also have a lot to do with:

1. Voters who don't fall into one of those categories.

2. Casual moviegoers, whose reception of the film is at best mixed/puzzled/indifferent.

The film has not made enough money to be a sleeper hit. It has a pretty decent chance of gaining cult status on DVD, but that won't win it any Oscars.

Drive is little more than a vote siphoner, save for the category of supporting actor. I'll get there. Working on a Best Director post.


Mon Oct 24, 2011 9:41 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
I feel like a jerk for asking Pedro to do this and then not commenting on it for over a week. Good job, as always, Pedro!

I noticed you had your BP locks up, soon to be locks, and challengers. How many BP nominations do you think there will be this year since the rules changed? Do you think they'll keep it at 10, or nominate fewer movies?

I'm pleased as punch that Woody Allen and Midnight in Paris seem to be locks for getting some love. I really enjoyed the movie and it's always good to see Woody get some love. And yes, I intended that to be a sexual pun.

MGamesCook wrote:
ilovemovies wrote:
It's one of the best reviewed movies of the year. Look, I'm not crazy about the movie either, but people do love it, so I could definitely see it being a contender.


I beg to differ. People on this forum love it. Critics love it. However, Oscars also have a lot to do with:

1. Voters who don't fall into one of those categories.

2. Casual moviegoers, whose reception of the film is at best mixed/puzzled/indifferent.

The film has not made enough money to be a sleeper hit. It has a pretty decent chance of gaining cult status on DVD, but that won't win it any Oscars.


Do the Oscars really have a lot to do with casual moviegoers? Most of the people I know are casual moviegoers and it seems to me that they frequently complain about movies the Oscars touts and how obscure they are. A lot of non film buffs have never even heard of a lot of the movies the Oscars nominate.

Maybe I'm off base, though. Anyone else care to offer up some thoughts?


Fri Oct 28, 2011 12:02 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
PeachyPete wrote:
Do the Oscars really have a lot to do with casual moviegoers? Most of the people I know are casual moviegoers and it seems to me that they frequently complain about movies the Oscars touts and how obscure they are. A lot of non film buffs have never even heard of a lot of the movies the Oscars nominate.

Maybe I'm off base, though. Anyone else care to offer up some thoughts?


We'd like to think that they don't, but I think they do more than ever because voters are swayed by hype and ad campaigns. Although part of the problem is how we define casual: to have never heard of, say, King's Speech or Social Network goes even lower than "casual," to me, if that makes sense. Drive's only chance would be nominations in a couple categories, but I think that ship has sailed. In terms of actual winners, I don't think there's a recent one that got a "blah" reaction from the masses, so I think MGames does have a point there.


Fri Oct 28, 2011 12:15 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
PeachyPete wrote:
Do the Oscars really have a lot to do with casual moviegoers? Most of the people I know are casual moviegoers and it seems to me that they frequently complain about movies the Oscars touts and how obscure they are. A lot of non film buffs have never even heard of a lot of the movies the Oscars nominate.


It varies from year to year, but mainstream perception is definitely a factor. They seem to be alternating these days: King's Speech, Slumdog, and Departed were all big enough to cross 100 mil. Hurt Locker and No Country were smaller. But even in a year when a smaller film might be favored, Drive is just too damn small. As Shade says, the ship has sailed. And anyway, the hopefully triumphant return of Spielberg might break the pattern.


Fri Oct 28, 2011 9:10 pm
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Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Blonde Almond wrote:
I
Tintin is most likely the frontrunner for Best Animated Feature. With both Pixar and Disney delivering bombs (Cars 2 and Mars Needs Moms, respectively), the other nominations will likely go to Rango and possibly Arrietty or Winnie The Pooh. Not the best year for animation...


You're overlooking Puss in Boots, which has an excellent chance at a nomination. Kung Fu Panda 2 has a pretty good chance as well.

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Sun Oct 30, 2011 2:04 am
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Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Syd Henderson wrote:
Blonde Almond wrote:
I
Tintin is most likely the frontrunner for Best Animated Feature. With both Pixar and Disney delivering bombs (Cars 2 and Mars Needs Moms, respectively), the other nominations will likely go to Rango and possibly Arrietty or Winnie The Pooh. Not the best year for animation...


You're overlooking Puss in Boots, which has an excellent chance at a nomination. Kung Fu Panda 2 has a pretty good chance as well.


At the time that I wrote that, Puss In Boots hadn't yet been released to fairly strong critical and commercial success. Now that it has, I agree that it is very much in the running. I guess it will depend on whether the Academy chooses to nominate five films, like in 2009, or only three, like last year.


Sun Oct 30, 2011 11:07 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
No mention of Melancholia?

That movie was a 2-hour-long punch in the face. Easily the most impressive thing I've seen all year, and I've seen about 75% of the aforementioned titles. (Not counting the ones that haven't come out yet, obviously.)

Maybe the Academy will pan it because of the Hitler remarks, but it seriously made me lose sleep for 2 nights. It was that disturbing/depressing/horrific/good.


Sun Oct 30, 2011 11:58 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Jaimie wrote:
No mention of Melancholia?

That movie was a 2-hour-long punch in the face. Easily the most impressive thing I've seen all year, and I've seen about 75% of the aforementioned titles. (Not counting the ones that haven't come out yet, obviously.)

Maybe the Academy will pan it because of the Hitler remarks, but it seriously made me lose sleep for 2 nights. It was that disturbing/depressing/horrific/good.


Hey, its been a while! :)


Mon Oct 31, 2011 12:03 am
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Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Sexual Chocolate wrote:
Patrick wrote:
Sexual Chocolate wrote:
About A Dangerous Method:

I'm not expecting it to get any attention from the Academy. Nothing Cronenberg has done ever has; Eastern Promises was one of his best films, and they ignored it.


Untrue, Viggo Mortensen got a nod.


You're correct...I completely forgot. That may be the first time anyone has been nominated for any of Cronenberg's films; I can't remember another time.

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William Hurt: History of Violence.

Despite being on screen for what seemed like 3 minutes.

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Mon Oct 31, 2011 9:28 am
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Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
MGamesCook wrote:
PeachyPete wrote:
Do the Oscars really have a lot to do with casual moviegoers? Most of the people I know are casual moviegoers and it seems to me that they frequently complain about movies the Oscars touts and how obscure they are. A lot of non film buffs have never even heard of a lot of the movies the Oscars nominate.


It varies from year to year, but mainstream perception is definitely a factor. They seem to be alternating these days: King's Speech, Slumdog, and Departed were all big enough to cross 100 mil. Hurt Locker and No Country were smaller. But even in a year when a smaller film might be favored, Drive is just too damn small. As Shade says, the ship has sailed. And anyway, the hopefully triumphant return of Spielberg might break the pattern.


My question was more of a general one than it was a questioning of your stance on Drive. For the record, I don't think that particular film is going to get many, if any, Oscar nods.

I think the fact that it varies from year to year can be seen as evidence either way. Maybe the Academy legitimately picks the 5 (or recently, 10) movies it thinks are the best from the year, regardless of whether or not they have mainstream success. If they did that, it would make sense for the ratio between mainstream success and indie darling to vary on a yearly basis, which is seemingly the case. I'm just not sure I'm ready to say the Academy has a great deal to do with casual moviegoers because some successful, mainstream films win awards (maybe they're just, you know, good). They still award and nominate many smaller films casual moviegoers aren't familiar with. Even though I rarely agree with many of the winners, I do think they do a fairly good job of balancing a casual fan's interest and the obscure critical favorites.


Mon Oct 31, 2011 10:31 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
JJoshay wrote:
Jaimie wrote:
No mention of Melancholia?

That movie was a 2-hour-long punch in the face. Easily the most impressive thing I've seen all year, and I've seen about 75% of the aforementioned titles. (Not counting the ones that haven't come out yet, obviously.)

Maybe the Academy will pan it because of the Hitler remarks, but it seriously made me lose sleep for 2 nights. It was that disturbing/depressing/horrific/good.


Hey, its been a while! :)


Yes it has! I've been lurking, not commenting. :(


Mon Oct 31, 2011 5:22 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Let's talk Best Director. This is an interesting one because there's no clear frontrunner for a nomination, let alone a win. Outside of Best Make-Up, there is no other category featuring so much guess work.

PROBABLE LOCKS
~Alexander Payne for The Descendants
~Michael Hazanavicius for The Artist

LOCKS TO-BE
~Steven Spielberg for War Horse
~Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris
~Bennett Miller for Moneyball
~Stephen Daldry for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

WILDCARD, BITCHES
~Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life
~Tomas Alfredson for Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy
~David Fincher for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
~Martin Scorsese for Hugo
~Jason Reitman for Young Adult

VOTE SIPHONERS
~Nicolas Winding Refn for Drive
~Pedro Almodovar for The Skin I Live In
~Asghar Farhadi - A Separation
~Steve McQueen - Shame

One thing seems to be certain: The Descendants is going to have some traction in the major categories but not really anywhere else. There tends to be one of these every year (Juno, Frost/Nixon and The Reader, Up in the Air, The Fighter) and, perhaps not coincidentally, I would be surprised if one of these ever take the top prize. People love it, but it is unlikely they will love it enough. However, Payne might have some traction here, so don't rule him out for anything. Regarding Michael Hazanavicius: The Artist looks to be a director's playland. Nominating him seems like a no-brainer. Will he win? I don't know. It depends on how the Academy responds to the film.

Steven Spielberg's name should be brought up in any Oscar discussion, so long as it's not for things like Jurassic Park or Indiana Jones. The man knows how to tell a story and it's unlikely that War Horse won't net him another possibility for a statue. Woody Allen hasn't been in the director discussion for a while, even if his films get screenplay attention. What separates this film from Vicky Christina Barcelona or Whatever Works or You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger? Soooo many things: balance of drama, successful comedy, thematic impact, use of location and color, etc. Bennett Miller and Stephen Daldry are definitely the weak links of the discussion, as Moneyball is losing traction by the day and we still know nothing about Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

A Best Director nod seems an EASY place to honor Malick. If anyone cares about The Tree of Life outside of cinematography and visual effects nominations, it will be here. Alfredson, like with Best Picture hopes, relies on how well the film is received over here. Based on what I've seen so far, it seems like the directing is pretty solid if not superb. If he can gain some traction, he should be considered. Fincher has something in common with Daldry in that no one knows anything about his film yet. Like with most Fincher films, I'm sure there will be some excellent direction. Will anyone care, though? I've been having a hard time getting a pulse on how people are feeling about Hugo. Do they love it? Do they think it's good but not great? What's the consensus? A lot of this doesn't usually translate into director notices. Of the five, the one to watch out for is Jason Reitman. He's coming off two unsuccessful Oscar runs that nonetheless let him to nomination glory. Will he be able to pull it off three years in a row? Maybe not, but folks are digging Young Adult.

And there you go!


Wed Nov 09, 2011 4:44 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
I love that most of the locks are from pictures that are as yet unreleased or have been seen by only a handful of people at film festivals. There really isn't that much shocking material at the oscars, huh?

Jaimie wrote:
No mention of Melancholia?

That movie was a 2-hour-long punch in the face. Easily the most impressive thing I've seen all year, and I've seen about 75% of the aforementioned titles. (Not counting the ones that haven't come out yet, obviously.)

Maybe the Academy will pan it because of the Hitler remarks, but it seriously made me lose sleep for 2 nights. It was that disturbing/depressing/horrific/good.


I could be wrong, but didn't JB mention in another thread that Melancholia is not eligible for any awards because of some OnDemand release?


Wed Nov 09, 2011 10:14 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
ed_metal_head wrote:
Jaimie wrote:
No mention of Melancholia?

That movie was a 2-hour-long punch in the face. Easily the most impressive thing I've seen all year, and I've seen about 75% of the aforementioned titles. (Not counting the ones that haven't come out yet, obviously.)

Maybe the Academy will pan it because of the Hitler remarks, but it seriously made me lose sleep for 2 nights. It was that disturbing/depressing/horrific/good.


I could be wrong, but didn't JB mention in another thread that Melancholia is not eligible for any awards because of some OnDemand release?


I googled this and found this link on it. (http://www.wildaboutmovies.com/2011_movies/Melancholia.php) Not sure how reliable it is. But I think if Melancholia was excluded, there would be more Google hits than I found about it...


Thu Nov 10, 2011 12:02 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
I could be wrong and I'm not going to check, but Lars von Trier's films have amassed one Oscar nomination: in the Best Original Song category for Dancer in the Dark. Melancholia was never going to be a realistic Oscar movie, regardless of how good it is. (I saw it, it's good. I didn't love it, but it's good.)


Thu Nov 10, 2011 12:13 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Pedro wrote:
I could be wrong and I'm not going to check, but Lars von Trier's films have amassed one Oscar nomination: in the Best Original Song category for Dancer in the Dark. Melancholia was never going to be a realistic Oscar movie, regardless of how good it is. (I saw it, it's good. I didn't love it, but it's good.)


I think Emily Watson got nominated for Breaking the Waves.


Thu Nov 10, 2011 7:10 am
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Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Hugo is getting raves. Spielberg vs Scorsese at the Oscars?


Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:14 pm
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Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Let's talk Best Actor!

PROBABLE LOCKS
~George Clooney for The Descendants
~Jean Dujardin for The Artist
~Brad Pitt for Moneyball

LOCKS TO-BE
~Michael Fassbender for Shame
~Woody Harrelson for Rampart
~Leonardo DiCaprio for J. Edgar
~Gary Oldman for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

WILDCARD, BITCHES
~Michael Shannon for Take Shelter
~Damián Bichir for A Better Life
~Ryan Gosling for The Ides of March
~Ryan Gosling for Drive

VOTE SIPHONERS
~Peter Mullan for Tyrannosaur
~Ralph Fiennes for Coriolanus
~Thomas Horn for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
~Asa Butterfield for Hugo
~Michael Fassbender for A Dangerous Method
~Jeremy Irvine for War Horse
~Paul Giamatti for Win Win

I'm not sure I need to dedicate a whole lot of discussion to George Clooney. He's very good at playing messed up versions of himself in films by respected directors. At this point, I'm not sure I need to dedicate too much time to Jean Dujardin, either. I've been clear about how The Artist has been getting a lot of love and Dujardin is one of the central components of that love. I went to the Kabuki theater in SF last weekend and the 4:25 screening for Like Crazy was packed. PACKED. If a stupid afternoon showing of a film with tepid Oscar discussion is getting nearly sold out numbers, The Artist is probably going to blow up. Not to mention, the crowd practically exploded when the trailer for The Artist came on. No one screamed or cheered, but everyone gazed at the screen as if they'd never seen a silent film before. (For what it's worth, the Descendants was actually sold out and that's why I saw Like Crazy to begin with.) Anyway, the weak link of the locks is Brad Pitt. Although he seems fairly set for a nomination, if he were to take a shit on a building a la Occupy Wall Street, the negative press from that might spin his campaigning in the wrong direction.

The strongest contender in the locks-to-be section, thankfully, is my schnookums Mr. Michael Fassbender. I haven't seen Shame, but I'm more than ready to jizz all over his performance given the track record of the filmmakers and the buzz it has been building. The only thing that's preventing him from joining the ranks of Clooney and Dujardin is the film's very limited release strategy coupled with its NC-17 rating. If Shame doesn't break 100 theaters, it'll have a hard time securing a vote. Woody Harrelson is going to have similar problems because I can't see Rampart expanding very much. To top it off, Rampart focuses on a cop so corrupt that it might be difficult to like what the film is trying to accomplish. I haven't seen the film so I'm not sure if he's a villain or anti-hero, but if he doesn't have a shred of anti-hero in him, not everyone is going to go for it. Allegedly, Woody was in character off camera, so that's always helps. J. Edgar! Clint, what happened? You used to be suckling the Academy's teat and now you're practically a cock stain on a garbage can. You are transitioning, in the perspective of early prognosticators, from "every Clint movie should be considered for Best Picture" to "let's wait until it comes out before we talk about it" to what may eventually be "why won't you die." Look, DiCaprio's pretty good in J. Edgar, but so what? If an excellent performance can't redeem a stunningly average movie, then why should it be considered? This is the mentality that may drive some voters and thus he is not the lock some people like to think he is. As far as Gary Oldman goes, again, we have to see how Tinker Tinker Tinker Tinker plays over here. He seems locked for a BAFTA nomination, but this is the Oscars.

Michael Shannon has a pretty good chance of breaking through if he gets some precursor nominations, but if he doesn't, I'd forget about him. He managed to score a nod for Revolutionary Road when there seemed to be no hope; maybe he can pull off another magic trick. I wouldn't count on it, though. Surprisingly, Damián Bichir has been picking up some traction for his performance. Its box office performance was decent and screeners are being sent to voters so this is the true definition of a dark horse nominee if it can be accomplished. And Ryan Gosling... what can you say about him? He's great in everything he's in, but he has two central performances that will not get recognized. He's really loud in Ides and really quiet in Drive; these extremes will draw an equal amount of small votes that will cancel each other out and Gosling gets robbed again.

A quick note on Thomas Horn and Asa Butterfield: they are unquestionably the leads in their respective films, but I've been reading that Butterfield is going to be campaigned for Supporting Actor? Why, because he's young? That's just dishonest. I always pretend to believe that the Academy is above category fraud, but let's face it, they're not. To top it off, neither child has the magnetism that Hailee Steinfeld had to be incorrectly nominated. Balls.

ON HUGO: I now consider it a LOCK TO-BE, to be evaluated again when its box office performance is clearer.

If you were to ask me who wins Best Picture right now, I'd say The Artist.


Mon Nov 28, 2011 8:11 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Pedro wrote:
A quick note on Thomas Horn and Asa Butterfield: they are unquestionably the leads in their respective films, but I've been reading that Butterfield is going to be campaigned for Supporting Actor? Why, because he's young? That's just dishonest. I always pretend to believe that the Academy is above category fraud, but let's face it, they're not. To top it off, neither child has the magnetism that Hailee Steinfeld had to be incorrectly nominated. Balls.


There's been quite a few strong child performances this year, from Tree of Life and Super 8 to Hugo and We Bought A Zoo. It seems like the Academy in recent years doesn't seem to know what to do with them, as the Hailee Steinfeld situation last year showed. Maybe a Best Child Actor award should be created?


Mon Nov 28, 2011 8:34 pm
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