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2012 Oscar Buzz 
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Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
I'm going to briefly touch on the screenplay categories, original first.

PROBABLE LOCKS
~Midnight in Paris
~The Artist

LOCKS TO-BE
~50/50
~Beginners
~Bridesmaids
~Win Win
~Young Adult

WILDCARD, BITCHES
~Margin Call
~A Separation
~Shame
~Martha Marcy May Marlene
~Margaret

VOTE SIPHONERS
~Rango
~Melancholia
~Take Shelter
~The Tree of Life
~Like Crazy

I don't think there's any debate that Midnight in Paris and The Artist are going to score here. The other three spots are completely up for debate. There's a lot of pull for 50/50 so maybe that'll be a less than surprising appearance. Those other two spots, though... man. Beginners seems somewhat likely, but who knows? Bridesmaids and Win Win have gained a lot of traction recently. Diablo Cody won her Oscar for Juno so perhaps she has some support within the branch.

I'd like to look at the wildcards because oh man are they interesting. The question that always needs to be asked: will the smaller films be loved enough to slide into the rotation? Margin Call and, to a lesser extent, Martha Marcy May Marlene got a lot of attention in various First Screenplay categories. Then you've got A Separation which might take the foreign language category, more of a perceived frontrunner than The White Ribbon ever was. Shame has a lot of support from those who've seen it. Margaret? Oh man. The whole Team Margaret thing on Twitter apparently caught a lot of people's attentions and then screeners were sent and the darkest of dark horses seems like an outside possibility! Wow! Go Internet.

Here's the adapted side, which is, perhaps, less interesting.

PROBABLE LOCKS
~The Descendants
~Moneyball

LOCKS TO-BE
~Hugo
~The Help
~Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
~The Ides of March
~The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

WILDCARD, BITCHES
~War Horse
~We Need to Talk About Kevin
~Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
~Drive

VOTE SIPHONERS
~A Dangerous Method
~Jane Eyre
~Carnage

The Descendants will likely take this award as Moneyball nips at its heels. Hugo would probably be a lock if it weren't for its lack of a nomination for the USC Scripter award. The Help isn't particularly well-written, but that might not matter. That fifth spot is up for debate. Kind of the opposite of The Help, Tinker is very well written but it's so small it might not matter. The Ides of March seemed to have lost a lot of traction until the Goldens came out. The Dragon With the Dragon seems to only be gaining traction.

Unlike the original screenplay wildcards, the adapted screenplay wildcards seem less likely to break in. I don't think War Horse is going to be renowned for its screenplay, We Need to Talk About Kevin is too small, Extremely Loud is incredibly dead, and Drive... well, Drive.


Thu Jan 12, 2012 9:22 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Which is going to get snubbed? Hugo or The Artist? There's not a snowball's chance in hell that both will be nominated.


Sat Jan 14, 2012 2:48 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
For which category?


Sat Jan 14, 2012 6:15 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Pedro wrote:
For which category?


Best Picture. I can't think of a time when a best picture nominee was a flop. So I'm thinking it's gonna be Hugo.


Sat Jan 14, 2012 9:26 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
MGamesCook wrote:
Pedro wrote:
For which category?


Best Picture. I can't think of a time when a best picture nominee was a flop. So I'm thinking it's gonna be Hugo.


If the Golden Globe nominations are any indication, and more often than not they are, both Hugo and The Artist will be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. The latter seems to have the better chance of actually winning, while the former seems like a dark horse pick at best. The Descendants feels to me like the clear frontrunner though.


Sun Jan 15, 2012 4:47 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Quote:
both Hugo and The Artist will be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. The latter seems to have the better chance of actually winning, while the former seems like a dark horse pick at best.


I completely agree. I would just extend the statement to call Hugo a dark horse for a nomination, let alone a win. I still say War Horse will get a nomination. It will at least be another Munich.


Sun Jan 15, 2012 5:34 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Golden Globe winners:

Best Motion Picture — Drama: “The Descendants”
Best Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical: “The Artist”
Best Director — Motion Picture: Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
Best Actress — Drama: Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
Best Actor — Drama: George Clooney, “The Descendants”
Best Actress — Comedy or Musical: Michelle Williams, “My Week With Marilyn”
Best Actor — Comedy or musical: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
Best Screenplay: Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
Best Original Score: Ludovic Bource – “The Artist”
Best Original Song: “Masterpiece” — W.E., Madonna, Julie Frost, Jimmy Harry
Best Animated Feature Film: “The Adventures of Tintin”
Best Foreign Language Film: “A Separation” (Iran)


Mon Jan 16, 2012 12:00 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Commentary!

Best Motion Picture — Drama: “The Descendants”
Best Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical: “The Artist”
~Most people would agree that it's these two films competing for the prize.

Best Director — Motion Picture: Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
~Some people would argue that there might be a picture/director split. I don't know if I fall into that category anymore, though at one point I did.

Best Actress — Drama: Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
~Surprised me some. I thought it'd be Viola Davis for sure.

Best Actor — Drama: George Clooney, “The Descendants”
~Surprised me less. The only other man it could have been was Brad.

Best Actress — Comedy or Musical: Michelle Williams, “My Week With Marilyn”
~Her speech was nice. Apparently some people think Kristen Wiig might make some waves in the Best Actress category.

Best Actor — Comedy or musical: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist
~In the three-way competition for Best Actor, this guy might take it.

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
~Yep.

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
~Yep.

Best Screenplay: Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
~This was a little bit of a shocker considering that Woody Allen never shows up to these things and the HFPA likes to give awards to those that do (though not always), but The Artist will have to take the backseat for now.

Best Original Score: Ludovic Bource – “The Artist”
~Some people might have problems with this given the controversy about the score's originality, but whatever, it's your frontrunner in this category.

Best Original Song: “Masterpiece” — W.E., Madonna, Julie Frost, Jimmy Harry
~This song was disqualified for the Oscars because it's the second song in the end credits section of the film. That's a rule.

Best Animated Feature Film: “The Adventures of Tintin”
~I thought Rango had this award on lockdown! Maybe not.

Best Foreign Language Film: “A Separation” (Iran)
~I have my theories on this film. If the foreign language shortlist ever comes out, I'll discuss it.


Mon Jan 16, 2012 12:07 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Quote:
Best Animated Feature Film: “The Adventures of Tintin”
~I thought Rango had this award on lockdown! Maybe not.


You mean some people in the film community still have respect for Spielberg? I'm shocked.


Mon Jan 16, 2012 12:42 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
MGamesCook wrote:
Quote:
Best Animated Feature Film: “The Adventures of Tintin”
~I thought Rango had this award on lockdown! Maybe not.


You mean some people in the film community still have respect for Spielberg? I'm shocked.


Sarcasm aside, I do think Rango's a better film in every way and I hope the Academy agrees with me.


Mon Jan 16, 2012 3:14 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Totally agree, Shade. I loved Rango and just caught a screening of Tintin a couple of days ago, as a fan of the original comics and animated series (haven't seen/read in many years though) count me disappointed. It isn't bad its just so 'meh' the set-pieces are impressive and I really wanted to like it more and it is probably the second best of what is likely to be nominated. As for Spielberg personally have no beef against the guy he is just very up and down for me - Munich and Minority Report were excellent but the rest of his work of the 00's ranged from solid to very mediocre at best.


Mon Jan 16, 2012 9:23 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/1 ... Lid=128491

Somebody throw me a fuckin bone here. This movie doesn't have a prayer.


Wed Jan 18, 2012 10:13 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
MGamesCook wrote:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/18/silent-film-the-artist-outrages_n_1212707.html?ref=entertainment&icid=maing-grid7%7Caim%7Cdl2%7Csec1_lnk3&pLid=128491

Somebody throw me a fuckin bone here. This movie doesn't have a prayer.


Things The Artist is responsibile for:

-Rape of Nanking
-Destruction of Joplin, Missouri
-Nicole Brown Simpson and Ron Goldman
-Wikipedia outtage
-Assassination of William McKinley
-Yeast infection I had back in 1999
-Tae Bo and all Tae Bo-related deaths
-Unpopular final five minutes of Psycho
-Jay Leno now back on NBC, Conan on TBS
-"I'm just a girl, standing in front of a boy, asking him to love her", ''Hold me. Like you did by the lake on Naboo," and "honest-to-blog."
-Richard Donner out, Richard Lester in
-Mumps

But one thing the movie does do is finally offer an explanation of Heston's famous line in Soylent Green:
Attachment:
4072_5.jpg
4072_5.jpg [ 28.28 KiB | Viewed 1080 times ]


Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:08 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Quote:
Rape of Nanking
-Destruction of Joplin, Missouri
-Nicole Brown Simpson and Ron Goldman
-Wikipedia outtage
-Assassination of William McKinley
-Yeast infection I had back in 1999
-Tae Bo and all Tae Bo-related deaths
-Unpopular final five minutes of Psycho
-Jay Leno now back on NBC, Conan on TBS
-"I'm just a girl, standing in front of a boy, asking him to love her", ''Hold me. Like you did by the lake on Naboo," and "honest-to-blog."
-Richard Donner out, Richard Lester in
-Mumps


So in other words, you agree.


Thu Jan 19, 2012 3:06 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
MGamesCook wrote:
Quote:
Rape of Nanking
-Destruction of Joplin, Missouri
-Nicole Brown Simpson and Ron Goldman
-Wikipedia outtage
-Assassination of William McKinley
-Yeast infection I had back in 1999
-Tae Bo and all Tae Bo-related deaths
-Unpopular final five minutes of Psycho
-Jay Leno now back on NBC, Conan on TBS
-"I'm just a girl, standing in front of a boy, asking him to love her", ''Hold me. Like you did by the lake on Naboo," and "honest-to-blog."
-Richard Donner out, Richard Lester in
-Mumps


So in other words, you agree.


Mark, clapping slowly as a grin spreads across his face, rises from his wheelchair. It turns out he wasn't physically handicapped after all.

Mark: Very good, Mr. Cook. Very good. You figured it all out. I'm impressed. Others have tried... oh yes... but none have made the progress that you've managed. And in so little time.

Mark, smiling, once again begins the slow clap... clap... clap. After 15 or so seconds he reaches into his pocket and pulls out what appears to be a pin, perhaps a part of some larger assembly.

Mark: What's this?

Mark makes a theatrical examination of the pin, kneading his chin and scratching the top of his head as he feigns puzzlement over the object.

Mark: Now, I'm no mechanic, Mr. Cook. Why, I was politely asked to leave metal shop before I even left the advisor's office!

Mark pauses for audience laughter.

Mark: I do believe your car, Mr. Cook, is missing something. What could it be? Well, I'll give you a brake... because you'll find it impossible to give yourself one!

Mark begins laughing hysterically.

Mark: Farewell, Cook. It's a shame your cat, Frodo, will be unable to mourn you... he died screaming, Cook. He suffered.

The lights dim. The distant sound is heard, as if from the sky, of a breaking string, dying away sadly.


Thu Jan 19, 2012 5:15 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Major Aphasia wrote:
Yeast infection I had back in 1999


Did you get this in your vagina?


Thu Jan 19, 2012 9:35 am
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Mark, clapping slowly as a grin spreads across his face, rises from his wheelchair. It turns out he wasn't physically handicapped after all.

Mark: Very good, Mr. Cook. Very good. You figured it all out. I'm impressed. Others have tried... oh yes... but none have made the progress that you've managed. And in so little time.

Mark, smiling, once again begins the slow clap... clap... clap. After 15 or so seconds he reaches into his pocket and pulls out what appears to be a pin, perhaps a part of some larger assembly.

Mark: What's this?

Quote:
Mark makes a theatrical examination of the pin, kneading his chin and scratching the top of his head as he feigns puzzlement over the object.

Mark: Now, I'm no mechanic, Mr. Cook. Why, I was politely asked to leave metal shop before I even left the advisor's office!

Mark pauses for audience laughter.

Mark: I do believe your car, Mr. Cook, is missing something. What could it be? Well, I'll give you a brake... because you'll find it impossible to give yourself one!

Mark begins laughing hysterically.

Mark: Farewell, Cook. It's a shame your cat, Frodo, will be unable to mourn you... he died screaming, Cook. He suffered.

The lights dim. The distant sound is heard, as if from the sky, of a breaking string, dying away sadly.


Is this copyrighted, or can I use it for a script?


Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:17 pm
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
PeachyPete wrote:
Major Aphasia wrote:
Yeast infection I had back in 1999


Did you get this in your vagina?


More or less.

MGamesCook wrote:

Is this copyrighted, or can I use it for a script?


It's now in the public domain. Feel free. My last name is spelled C-H-E-H-K-O-V.

I'm done.


Thu Jan 19, 2012 2:14 pm
Director
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 10, 2009 10:09 pm
Posts: 1226
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
Quote:
Rape of Nanking
-Destruction of Joplin, Missouri
-Nicole Brown Simpson and Ron Goldman


Somebody run and tell O.J. we've finally tracked down the real killer. :P


Thu Jan 19, 2012 10:05 pm
Profile
Post Re: 2012 Oscar Buzz
I'm going to handicap the foreign language and documentary categories, because really, they're both really hard to predict.

PROBABLE LOCKS
~A Separation
~Pina

LOCKS TO-BE
~In Darkness
~Footnote
~Monsieur Lazhar

WILDCARD, BITCHES
~Omar Killed Me
~Bullhead
~Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale
~SuperClásico

Although some analysts posed that A Separation would have a hard time making the nine film shortlist, the film seems to have the momentum to carry it to a nomination. I would say the same thing about Pina, which is poised to be the first film to ever be nominated for both the foreign language and documentary categories. In Darkness looks like it should be good, plus Agnieszka Holland has Academy history with Europa Europa, a writing nominee in its day. Footnote would mark Israel's fourth nomination in five years. I've seen Monsieur Lazhar, and it's right up the foreign committee's alley.

Regarding the others, well, three of the six were probably "saved" by the executive branch of the committee. I'd watch out for Omar Killed Me. It'd be Morocco's first nomination, but the talent involved has been in this category before with Days of Glory and Outside the Law. The director was also in Point Blank this past year. Bullhead was elected over a Dardenne film, so one wonders if it has the traction to make it all the way. Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale would mark Taiwain's for non-Ang Lee nomination, but intuition tells me that it's the weakest one of the nine. I could be wrong, of course. SuperClásico seems too light.

On documentaries, which was saved before James decided to move servers:

PROBABLE LOCKS
~Project Nim
~Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

LOCKS TO BE
~Pina
~We Were Here
~Bill Cunningham New York
~Here and Back Again
~Buck

WILDCARD, BITCHES
~If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
~Undefeated
~Sing Your Song
~Under Fire: Journalists in Combat
~The Loving Story
~Semper Fi: Always Faithful
~Battle For Brooklyn
~Jane's Journey

The only commentary I can really offer is that for the past ten years there seems to be an average of three films that Oscar-following people have heard of. Last year, the three were Inside Job, Exit Through the Gift Shop, and Restrepo. The previous year had The Cove; Food, Inc.; and The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers. (Burma VJ was on my radar, though.) Before that was Man on Wire, Encounters at the End of the World, and Trouble the Water. I'm practically making stuff up, but the likelihood of Pina, Project Nim, Buck, Bill Cunningham New York, and Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory ALL getting nominated isn't what you would call grand.


Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:29 pm
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