Hey guys. I come to you bringing my yearly Oscar coverage, detailing what will or won't get nominated for gold at this particular moment in time.

First thing's first: dem new rules. There are a few significant changes. The first is to the Best Animated Feature category. Normally, a field of sixteen animated films is required for five nominations. This is still the case. However, if there are between thirteen and fifteen contenders, four nominees is now the result. That said, there will probably be five this year, but it kind of depends on what gets declared ineligible (at risk: Tintin, Mars Need Moms, Alois Nobel).

The second and more significant change is to the Best Picture category. Some of you know this already, but it is now possible to have between five and ten Best Picture nominees. Some of you don't know the math behind it. Let me explain. There are two rounds of voting. To even be considered for round two, 1% of the roughly 6000-member Academy need to vote a film at number one. To be considered a nominee, the number jumps to 5%. If a film reaches 5% early on, it's a shoo-in for a nomination. Makes sense yet? Yeah, me neither. "When thinking about how many nominees there are going to be ALL you have to think about is what will get 5% right away plus what piles (after a round of distributing surplus and under 1% votes) will have over 5% of ballots in the end." Clear as mud. BASICALLY: You need 300 #1 votes, probably less considering not every member of the Academy will vote.

Keeping that in mind, let's discuss Best Picture.

PROBABLE LOCKS (oxymoron?)
~Midnight in Paris
~The Help
~Moneyball
~The Artist
~The Descendants

LOCKS TO-BE (this is different from the above category?)
~War Horse
~Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

WILDCARD, BITCHES
~The Girl With the David Fincher Tattoo
~We Bought a Zoo
~Young Adult
~Hugo
~The Tree of Life
~Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Let's go one by one. Midnight in Paris is in the category it's in because many people love it. It's Woody Allen being funny but with heft, sophisticated yet decidedly over-the-top. It's the kind of film people want to cuddle (not me). Its great success at the box office (not only its numbers but its long, long run) should have voters remembering the production when it comes down to making choices. You can also say pretty much the same thing about The Help, although that film isn't anywhere near as good... not like that's ever stopped the Academy before. The Artist and The Descendants have not come out yet, but they've premiered at various film festivals and the appropriate bloggers have splooged all the necessary liquids required to propel the films into voters's minds. Moneyball, on the other hand, remains the weak link of the five. Although people dug it when it came out, it seems like much of the commotion around it has died down. Perhaps this is because it's not the most cinematic thing ever, and perhaps there are other reasons. No one really knows. What I do know, or have an intuition to anyway, is that a lot of people aren't going to be putting this film at number one. Who's super enthusiastic about Moneyball? People are enthusiastic over the other four (especially The Artist), but Moneyball? Not so much. It still might get in because it might be on EVERYONE'S ballots, but it's definitely not a sure thing.

War Horse is Steven Spielberg in full-on bait mode. Visually, the film looks amazing. In terms of story, I'm sure there's an interesting tale to be told. I have little doubt that the production is going to be far too manipulative for someone like me, but that probably won't matter to Oscar voters and we'll have another Spielberg film as an Oscar nominee for Best Picture. You can say the same about Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Stephen Daldry is interesting because he has a perfect record for Best Director. Although he's only made three films, it's pretty neat each one has netted him a nomination in that category. And if the Academy had in 2000 the rules they have now, Billy Elliot probably would have been a Best Picture nominee. You cannot count this guy out, even in light of what seem to be locks. Remember: The Reader got in over The Dark Knight, and The Reader sucked.

Now, the challengers! The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo is the most likely of the five to weasel its way in there as the seventh or eighth nominee because a lot of people recognize Fincher's talent. Assuming Tattoo is on par with his other films, enough film should be able to go gaga enough to catapult the film into Oscar glory. Of the remaining five, the only other one who an maybe offer up a similar shot is The Tree of Life. However, while some people may not like Fincher's use of violence in Tattoo, even more people dislike Malick's use of... well, anything in The Tree of Life. It might get a lot of #1 votes, but it'll also not be considered by considerably more people. Regarding Hugo: it's a love letter to cinema, but it's a different type of Scorsese than the Academy's used to. I really like Shutter Island, but that film amounted to nothing when push came to shove. Hugo's release date puts it in a better spot to compete and certainly it will get in in some of the minor categories, but Picture? Pushing it. I don't know how voters are going to respond to Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy. If it's a box office success, count it as a strong contender. If it's not, consider it little more than a dark horse. Aaaaand I don't know what to say about We Bought a Zoo and Young Adult. We'll have to wait for reviews. For what it's worth: Jason Reitman is three-for-three in the Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy category at the Globes.

I do not think The Ides of March, Drive, The Skin I Live In, Jane Eyre, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Bridesmaids, Shame, or Angelina Jolie's directorial debut will have enough support to be considered in this category.

That's all for now! Chime in with your thoughts.

I'll throw in three films that seem to be tailor-made for Oscar voters: J. Edgar, My Week With Marilyn, and The Iron Lady. All three of these are biopics, and the Academy has a track record of giving awards to performers playing famous people.

J. Edgar is directed by Oscar winner Clint Eastwood and scripted by Oscar winner Dustin Lance Black. The film will ultimately hinge on the performance of Leonardo Dicaprio as the title character, but if he pulls it off I can see the film garnering some serious attention.

My Week With Marilyn looks to take advantage of the Academy's love for classy British productions. The director has specialized more in television, but all you need to do is look at the two big headliners: Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe and Kenneth Branagh as Sir Laurence Olivier. Those two seem predestined to get recognized.

The Iron Lady is going to have one of those Meryl Streep Oscar-bait performances that she seems to give every few years. The director's only other theatrical production was Mamma Mia, but once again, classy British production.

All three of these films have a strong chance of scoring some acting nominations. I guess Best Picture nominations will depend on whether or not the films themselves are any good, but the acting alone should put them into consideration.

I agree that Midnight In Paris seems to be a lock for Best Picture, which I don't think anybody could have seen coming at the start of the year. Chances are Woody will probably get a Best Original Screenplay nomination as well.

Moneyball was a terrific film, but also one for a very specialized audience. It's tough to imagine Academy voters getting too excited about a film that focuses on the business side of a baseball franchise.

I have a feeling The Tree Of Life will get some attention, probably a Best Director nod for Malick and maybe a Best Picture nomination. It's a little too "artful" and not accessible enough to be the favorite though.

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy has received almost universal acclaim from across the pond (I'm surprised some of our British posters haven't had any words for it yet). I suppose it will depend on how much exposure it gets in the States when it opens in December.

I'm not even going to acknowledge War Horse.

Both Shame and Drive are too edgy to get any Best Picture recognition, but Shame might score some acting nominations for Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan.

Tintin is most likely the frontrunner for Best Animated Feature. With both Pixar and Disney delivering bombs (Cars 2 and Mars Needs Moms, respectively), the other nominations will likely go to Rango and possibly Arrietty or Winnie The Pooh. Not the best year for animation...

I guess I'll stop for now. Maybe I'm crazy, but the popular and critical success Midnight In Paris almost looks like a potential frontrunner. Should be interesting.

Because Spielberg war movies usually suck...?

It's a horse movie.....

I think that The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and The Tree of Life will be nominated, and I also think that Drive's Best Director win for Refn at Cannes will give it a one up as dark horse. It will have to come closer to the Oscars for the dark horses to show their clout at the Awards, though. Even in October there's no real stand out 2012 Academy Awards contestants, despite having a few great or near great films (Tree of Life, Drive).

And Au Hasard Balthazar was a donkey movie...

And Jaws was a shark movie. It's also a Spielberg movie, and there's really no reason to expect anything less than a damn fine film. I really don't see him as the type of director who craps out in his later years, the way Scorsese kind of has. Indy 4 doesn't count, since that was just Lucas being bored.

I've got nothing against Spielberg. I'm a huge fan of his work and I'm sure it will be a well-made and affecting film, but chances are it will not alter my unreasonable antipathy towards horse movies, which has been well-documented on this forum.

Also, donkeys are acceptable. Because they're smaller and less full of themselves.

I don't think Moneyball will be nominated. Its audience is too niche.

The Tree of Life may be nominated, but it's too arty for the Academy. A Malick director nod or a cinematography nod may be their way of acknowledging it (though ideally, Brad Pitt should be nominated for Best Actor).

Drive should be nominated, but it's too dark and too violent for the Academy. So it won't be.

I have an inkling The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will be received coolly. Fincher has a habit of making a so-so film after every great film he makes.

So that leaves Midnight In Paris, The Help, War Horse, Extremely Loud, The Iron Lady, J. Edgar, The Descendants, and a few others...

Assuming they have ten nominees again, The Tree of Life should make the cut. It strikes me as a film that voters will either put first on their ballots or way down. It should win Cinematography.
Midnight in Paris wouldn't make the top five but might break into a top ten. Another likely Cinematography nominee.

I hadn't realized Kenneth Branagh was fulfilling his lifelong dream of becoming Sir Laurence Olivier. Williams and Branagh don't strike me as really looking like their characters, but they're both so good it may not matter.

I'll be really surprised if Jessica Chastain doesn't get a nomination for one of her many films this year. The only problem I can see is choosing which film. She may even get a lead and supporting nomination in the same year. If I had to guess, I'd say Take Shelter (which I've not seen) might get her a lead nomination and The Help the supporting. Viola Davis and Octavia Spenser also stand good chances for getting nominations for The Help.

I'd love to see Saoirse Ronan get a nomination for Hanna. Given that there generally aren't that many strong lead Actress performances in a year, she might even pull it off.

I gotta disagree with most of you on Tree of Life: while I'm not sure it will win, I would right now bet everything I own that it will be nominated. Pedro's right that it has left many viewers impressed but cold, but ultimately the level of respect for Malick will assure a nom.



...intrigues me. Daldry is interesting in that he's been nominated for everything he's done, and has never deserved it. This could change things -- I'm in the camp that the book is phenomenal and should translate very well visually -- but I think the film could also fall pretty flat.

I didn't see A Dangerous Method mentioned. The Cronenberg factor obviously throws a big wrench in it, but other than his name the film screams Oscar contender, no?

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy looks wonderful and the reviews are exciting -- personally I'm psyched to hear that it's only a bit over two hours long, but perhaps that will make it seem slight to some voters? It looks to be a strong year for male leads, but Oldman shouldn't be counted out either, because he has to be nominated for something someday, right?

I totally agree with Pedro's logic that Moneyball will not be number one on anyone's ballot but will appear on most -- same with Midnight in Paris, I think. I think the Artist gets a nod for sure.

At this point, it seems more wide-open than in recent years, which is nice.

About A Dangerous Method:

I'm not expecting it to get any attention from the Academy. Nothing Cronenberg has done ever has; Eastern Promises was one of his best films, and they ignored it.

Untrue, Viggo Mortensen got a nod.

From what I've read so far, Oldman is not only a lock for the nomination but he will likely win the award as well.

You're correct...I completely forgot. That may be the first time anyone has been nominated for any of Cronenberg's films; I can't remember another time.

Wrong again I'm afraid. William Hurt was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for A History of Violence, as was the screenplay for Best Adapted Screenplay.

I wasn't a fan of Eastern Promises and didn't think Viggo was deserving of his nomination for that movie (too bad he was ignored for his much better work in The Road a couple of years ago or for his awesome turn in any of the Lord of the Rings movies.

I was happy about Hurt's nomination for A History of Violence. It was my favorite part of that movie. He chewed up the scenery with the best of 'em!


EARLY PREDICTIONS

Best picture:

War Horse
The Descendants
Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
J. Edgar
The Tree of Life
The Artist
A Dangerous Method
The Ides of March
Drive


Best Director:

Steven Spielberg, War Horse
Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist


Best Actor:

Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Leonardo Dicaprio, J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender, Shame
George Clooney, The Descendants


Best Actress:

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Viola Davis, The Help
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene


Best Supporting Actor:

Christopher Plummer, Beginners
John Hawkes, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Albert Brooks, Drive
Arnie Hammer, J. Edgar


Best Supporting Actress:

Jessica Chastain for either The Tree of Life or Take Shelter or Coriolanus or The Help
Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
Carey Mulligan, Shame
Judi Dench, J. Edgar
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

If Drive gets nominated, it'll represent a new low for the Oscars; yes, worse than Blind Side.

It's one of the best reviewed movies of the year. Look, I'm not crazy about the movie either, but people do love it, so I could definitely see it being a contender.

I beg to differ. People on this forum love it. Critics love it. However, Oscars also have a lot to do with:

1. Voters who don't fall into one of those categories.

2. Casual moviegoers, whose reception of the film is at best mixed/puzzled/indifferent.

The film has not made enough money to be a sleeper hit. It has a pretty decent chance of gaining cult status on DVD, but that won't win it any Oscars.