Something tells me that Lee Daniels just will not be shortlisted. All directors nominated will have their pictures nominated for best picture (kinda obvious since there are 10 nominations).

Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker (right now, she has the greates chance of winning)
Quentin Tarantino - IB
Jason Reitman - Up In The Air (if Up In the Air gets enough Best Picture wins, he'll most likely win this, and deservedly so)

The other two are toss-ups. People are saying James Cameron, but I think we need two more weeks of box office to see the stronghold this movie has. But even if he is nominated, he won't win, the movie isn't as beloved as Titanic (but then again, what movie is as popular as that?)
Clint Eastwood stands a good chance of being nominated, which would be a shame because Invictus doesn't really work.
So most likely that last two are James Cameron and Clint Eastwood.

I would love to see Spike Jonze (Where The Wild Things Are) and Michael Mann (Public Enemies) replace Eastwood and Cameron, but that's just me.