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Reading Fractional Odds for Oscar Predictions 
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Post Reading Fractional Odds for Oscar Predictions
How do you read fractional odds for Oscar predictions, specifically the ones featured on this website: http://www.goldderby.com/stats/experts/ ... cture.html? 10/3 for Argo. 4/1 for Lincoln. 15/2 for Zero Dark Thirty. I don't get it.


Mon Jan 28, 2013 10:47 am
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Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:51 pm
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Post Re: Reading Fractional Odds for Oscar Predictions
In short, I don't.

The Argo odds have been updated to 15/2, which means it has a 2 in 15 chance of winning Best Picture in the eyes of predictive analysis. After guild support and an eventual BAFTA win, those odds will likely increase. However, odds and odds and sometimes it's better to go with your gut. (Other times it's not.)

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Mon Jan 28, 2013 12:26 pm
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Post Re: Reading Fractional Odds for Oscar Predictions
They're not intended to be fractions but odds, and are equal to the percentages. Read 8/1 as eight to one and you get 11%. 12/5 is twelve to five, or 29% which the current percentage chance for Argo. (12 to 5 odds against means 5 chances in 17 of winning and 12 chances in 17 of losing, and 5 divided by 17 rounds off to .29) I wish they hadn't used the solidus because it just confuses everybody.

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Mon Jan 28, 2013 2:16 pm
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