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The 85th Annual Academy Awards: 2013 Oscar Predictions 
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Post The 85th Annual Academy Awards: 2013 Oscar Predictions
This thread is to be devoted towards debating and predicting the nominees for the 85th Annual Academy Awards. All categories are open for discussion. Individual films and performances may also be discussed, so long as spoilers are indicated appropriately. I plan on posting my Oscar predictions within the coming days. Please note that the primary purpose of this thread is to predict the nominees in each category, while the secondary objective is to actually predict Oscar winners. Discussion concerning 2012 as it related to the field of cinema is also encouraged. Have fun. :)


Fri Dec 28, 2012 6:28 pm
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Post Re: The 85th Annual Academy Awards: 2013 Oscar Predictions
Picture nominees: Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Les Miserables, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty, maybe Django Unchained or Looper and two films I haven't heard of. Katy Perry, here's your chance!
Directors: Affleck (Argo), Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), Hooper (Les Miserables), Lee (Life of Pi), Spielberg (Lincoln)
Actor: Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman (Miserables), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained), maybe Brad Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) and Jamie Foxx (Django again), or even Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)
Actress: Emily Blunt (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen) Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Katy Perry (Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D). Okay, probably not Katy.
Supporting Actor: Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Philip Seymour Hoffman (the Master),Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), maybe David Straithairn (Lincoln) or Irrfan Khan (Life of Pi). Robert de Niro has a shot here, too.
Supporting actress: Amy Adams (The Master), Samantha Barks (Les Miserables), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Kristen Scott-Thomas (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen)
Animated: Brave, Frankenweenie, ParaNorman, Rise of the Guardians, Wreck-It Ralph

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Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:25 am
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Post Re: The 85th Annual Academy Awards: 2013 Oscar Predictions
I'll get to mine eventually, but for now:
Syd Henderson wrote:
Picture nominees: Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Les Miserables, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty, maybe Django Unchained or Looper and two films I haven't heard of. Katy Perry, here's your chance!
Directors: Affleck (Argo), Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), Hooper (Les Miserables), Lee (Life of Pi), Spielberg (Lincoln)
Actor: Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman (Miserables), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained), maybe Brad Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) and Jamie Foxx (Django again), or even Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)
Actress: Emily Blunt (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen) Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Katy Perry (Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D). Okay, probably not Katy.
Supporting Actor: Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Philip Seymour Hoffman (the Master),Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), maybe David Straithairn (Lincoln) or Irrfan Khan (Life of Pi). Robert de Niro has a shot here, too.
Supporting actress: Amy Adams (The Master), Samantha Barks (Les Miserables), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Kristen Scott-Thomas (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen)
Animated: Brave, Frankenweenie, ParaNorman, Rise of the Guardians, Wreck-It Ralph

A few issues here. Your picture and director selections are fine, possibly spot on, but everything below that gets a little wonky. Christoph Waltz isn't a lead, Salmon Fishing is going to have to go fish, and Life of Pi doesn't seem to have much traction in the acting categories for better or worse. David Strathairn is an interesting choice for supporting actor, but I don't think it'll happen.

The real wild card for me is Beasts of the Southern Wild.

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Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:59 am
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Post Re: The 85th Annual Academy Awards: 2013 Oscar Predictions
Pedro wrote:
The real wild card for me is Beasts of the Southern Wild.


You're the expert on this shizz, but I totally agree. It seems possible that Beast could end up with anywhere from 1 to 5 nominations (screenplay, actress, picture, supporting actor, score in order of likelihood). It fairly drastically shakes up everything but picture if it gets nods. The prognosticators (at least the honest ones) seem to have no clue about what it'll do.


Sat Dec 29, 2012 1:30 am
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Post Re: The 85th Annual Academy Awards: 2013 Oscar Predictions
Since there will be nine or ten nominees for Best Picture, Beast of the Southern Wild can slip in as a best picture nominee without getting a direction nomination. The five I mention for Director are the only candidates for winning Best Picture.

The possible nominations for Fishing Salmon are due to the weakness in those categories. Lawrence and Chastain are the contenders for Best Actress, and Anne Hathaway should be a lock for Supporting Actress.

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Sat Dec 29, 2012 2:52 am
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Post Re: The 85th Annual Academy Awards: 2013 Oscar Predictions
Syd Henderson wrote:
Since there will be nine or ten nominees for Best Picture


Are we sure about that? There haven't been enough years to make a great call on what to predict. I feel like Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Les Miserables, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi could be it. I do think Beasts is probably the 7th or 8th choice (and again, I think it could be higher than that), but I don't know that we're going to see 9+ noms every year.


Sat Dec 29, 2012 3:06 am
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Post Re: The 85th Annual Academy Awards: 2013 Oscar Predictions
Shade2 wrote:
Syd Henderson wrote:
Since there will be nine or ten nominees for Best Picture


Are we sure about that? There haven't been enough years to make a great call on what to predict. I feel like Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Les Miserables, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi could be it. I do think Beasts is probably the 7th or 8th choice (and again, I think it could be higher than that), but I don't know that we're going to see 9+ noms every year.


To be a best picture nominee, a film needs to get 5% of the nominations, except there have to be at least five and no more than 10. Wikipedia says "First-place nominations" but I thought it was nominations in general.

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Sat Dec 29, 2012 2:30 pm
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Post Re: The 85th Annual Academy Awards: 2013 Oscar Predictions
Syd Henderson wrote:
To be a best picture nominee, a film needs to get 5% of the nominations, except there have to be at least five and no more than 10. Wikipedia says "First-place nominations" but I thought it was nominations in general.

The Academy's voting system is needlessly complicated, but from what I understand, first-place nominations are very important but not necessarily the be-all end-all. There's what's called the surplus rule, where if a film (Argo, for example) gets way more first-place votes than it actually needs, half of its tally goes to the second-place film. Also, if something like Parental Guidance or even Bernie gets a few number one votes but not enough to contend, suddenly the second and third place votes become very important.

So, whoever's voting for Argo: what's your numbah two? And whoever's voting for a film that's definitely not going to be nominated for Best Picture: what's your highest contender?

Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Les Miserables, Silver Linings Playbook, and Life of Pi definitely could be it. (Life of Pi seems to be the sixth film.) I think a lot of people are underestimating Django Unchained, which should get enough number one votes to be a nominee. You can never be sure with Tarantino, though. Beasts of the Southern Wild is that wildcard eighth film. If there are two more nominees, they'll probably be a combination of Amour, The Master, and Moonrise Kingdom.

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Sun Dec 30, 2012 1:05 pm
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Post Re: The 85th Annual Academy Awards: 2013 Oscar Predictions
Syd Henderson wrote:
Picture nominees: Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Les Miserables, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty, maybe Django Unchained or Looper and two films I haven't heard of. Katy Perry, here's your chance!
Directors: Affleck (Argo), Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), Hooper (Les Miserables), Lee (Life of Pi), Spielberg (Lincoln)
Actor: Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman (Miserables), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained), maybe Brad Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) and Jamie Foxx (Django again), or even Suraj Sharma (Life of Pi)
Actress: Emily Blunt (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen) Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Katy Perry (Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D). Okay, probably not Katy.
Supporting Actor: Dwight Henry (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Philip Seymour Hoffman (the Master),Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), maybe David Straithairn (Lincoln) or Irrfan Khan (Life of Pi). Robert de Niro has a shot here, too.
Supporting actress: Amy Adams (The Master), Samantha Barks (Les Miserables), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Kristen Scott-Thomas (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen)
Animated: Brave, Frankenweenie, ParaNorman, Rise of the Guardians, Wreck-It Ralph


I often turn to Gold Derby when looking to make my Oscar predictions. Very helpful tool. That being said, I believe that only seven films will make the cut this year: Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Les Miserables, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, and Django Unchained. Moonrise Kingdom is ultimately a toss-up, but I don't think that it will make the final cut. Last year demonstrated just how idiotic the Academy's voting system is. (Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close? Really?) That being said, I will applaud if Looper is nominated, but it probably will not earn a spot. The Master is also too strange a film for an Oscar nomination, although it is my favorite movie of the year. Amour might get it, but I doubt it. Beasts will also be excluded as well.

Your nominations for Best Actor are spot-on. Nothing more. Nothing less. O. Russell might be a dark horse, but I doubt it. Tarantino will almost certainly be left out too.

Jamie Foxx certainly wasn't Oscar material in Django, although his performance was fine, Waltz was a supporting actor, and given the competition this year, Sharma definitely will not get a nomination. Day-Lewis will win, with the other nominees being Cooper, Hawkes (The Sessions), Jackman, and Washington (Flight). The fact that Joaquin Phoenix is being left out is ridiculous. I would substitute Jackman in for him.

Blunt may have received a Golden Globe nomination, but she certainly will not receive one from the Academy. Quvenzhane Wallis is a dark horse at the moment. The other three nominees should be Cotillard (Rust and Bone), Riva (Amour), and Watts (The Impossible). Better luck next time, Katy Perry.

Henry is not a professional actor, so the Academy will (unjustly and idiotically, as is usual) ignore him. Straitharn and Khan are almost certainly not going to make it either. Along with Hoffman and Jones, the other nominees will be Arkin (Argo), De Niro (Playbook), and DiCaprio (Django).

Barks and Scott-Thomas are very improbable for Best Supporting Actress. The nominees will be Adams, Field, and Hathaway, as well as Hunt (The Sessions) and Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel). Professor McGonagall, for the win.

Your predictions for Best Animated Feature are stellar, although The Painting could end up bumping one of those out. Brave and Guardians were both disappointments, so...


Sun Dec 30, 2012 7:43 pm
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