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2013 Oscar Buzz 
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
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That was the original plan, but now it's only coming out NY/LA on that day to qualify for Oscars.


NY/LA was always the original plan. Lots of movies go that route(Moonrise Kingdom, The Master, Lincoln) its not just about the Oscars(though that is certainly a factor - Million Dollar Baby initially only opened in NY/LA in Dec '04 & that worked out pretty well) but the fact that box office is generally much bigger in those cities than any other cities(per screen averages were massive opening weekends for Moonrise, The Master, Lincoln - stories like that help build word of mouth for the rest of the country) I actually think Cloud Atlas may have benefited from just an inital NY/LA opening, that subpar wide opening weekend automatically sank it, if it was just in NY/LA the studio would have had some big per screen averages to trumpet in Variety and get a little buzz going before going wider. Really most 'unusual' fare does better NY/LA(partly due to so many in the industry living there), not saying the rest of the country has bad taste or anything, but stuff like The Master & Zero Dark Thirty(remember Hurt Locker did no box office) are hard sells for the mall multiplex crowds.


Thu Nov 29, 2012 3:54 pm
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
Here's my guesses:

Les Miserables will have the most nominations and win the most Oscars, including Best Picture, Director and supporting actress for Anne Hathaway. It may well be a sweep. (This is assuming it isn't one of Hollywood's legendary bombs, but it looks very good.) "Argo", "Lincoln", "Life of Pi" and "Silver Linings Playbook" and Hobbit I will be among the nominees.

Daniel Day-Lewis should win Best Actor; the only thing he has going against him is he's won twice before and nobody has won three times.

Jennifer Lawrence should win Best Actress easily, but I don't know if it will be for "Silver Linings Playbook" (which it should be) or "The Hunger Games. Quvenzhané Wallis will be the youngest nominee ever in this category.

Supporting actor is difficult. I'd vote for David Strathairn for "Lincoln," but it's really unpredictable.

Amy Adams should get another nomination for "The Master," but I think it's Hathaway's year. I really hope Sally Fields doesn't win.

Adapted Screenplay: "Lincoln"
Original Screenplay: Damfino. The best screenplays I can think of are adapted. Maybe "Looper"? but it seems unlikely.

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Fri Nov 30, 2012 12:16 am
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
My Probably WAY OFF Predictions:



best picture nominees will be:

Argo
Django Unchained
The Hobbit
The Impossible
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

The winner WILL be Les Miserables.



Best director:

Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln


The winner will be Tom Hooper I'm guessing. Although I definitely think it could go to Affleck as well.


Best Actor:

Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Denzel Washington, Flight


Winner without a doubt goes to Day Lewis.



Best Actress:

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotilard, Rust & Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible



Winner will be Jennifer Lawrence



Best Supporting Actor

Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
John Goodman, Argo
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Winner = either Jones or De Niro is my guess maybe Hoffman.



Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, The Master
Judi Dench, Skyfall
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions

winner = Hathaway


best original screenplay:

Django Unchained
Flight
Looper
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty

winner = Zero Dark Thirty


best adapted screenplay:

Argo
Cloud Atlas
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall

Winner = Argo


Production Design:

Anna Karenina
The Hobbit
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Prometheus


Costume Design:

Anna Karenina
Cloud Atlas
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Snow White and the Huntsman


Cinematography:

Les Miserables
Lincoln
The Master
Prometheus
Skyfall


Visual Effects:

The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Prometheus


Score:

The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
John Carter
Lincoln
The Master

Winner = Lincoln


I'm fully aware that this list of nominations are wishful thinking on my part for score. But probably other areas as well. For instance, I'm kind of doubting that Cloud Atlas will do as well as I have it doing. Again, it's wishful thinking on my part. I realize that.


Fri Nov 30, 2012 11:44 am
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
Tommy Lee Jones was on fire in Lincoln. I'd bet on him over Strathairn getting the Best Actor nod.

And I reeeeaaaaally hope either Skyfall or Lincoln wins Best Cinematography. Between the two, it would almost certainly be Skyfall, because even though the camerawork in Lincoln is gorgeous and filled to the brim with purpose, Skyfall is the much showier movie.

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Fri Nov 30, 2012 1:33 pm
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
Do people really think Tom Hooper is going to win his second Best Director Oscar in 3 years? So, he's going to be on par with the likes of Speilberg, Lean, and Wilder in the eyes of the Academy? 2 movies of his in a row are going to win Best Director?

Sure, it's possible, but I have a tough time believing that will happen. I think Affleck is much more likely since he's been around a while and has directed a string of very good movies. It seems like it's his time to be "crowned".


Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:34 pm
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
PeachyPete wrote:
Do people really think Tom Hooper is going to win his second Best Director Oscar in 3 years? So, he's going to be on par with the likes of Speilberg, Lean, and Wilder in the eyes of the Academy? 2 movies of his in a row are going to win Best Director?

Sure, it's possible, but I have a tough time believing that will happen. I think Affleck is much more likely since he's been around a while and has directed a string of very good movies. It seems like it's his time to be "crowned".


I mentioned this on another forum I think, but I actually disagree with you a little. Don't get me wrong: your philosophy about why he wouldn't get it is spot-on and I agree with you on it, but something just feels different this year. In fact, I think both Picture and Director will come down to Hooper vs Bigelow... and like you, I find it so weird to consider either of them worthy of that crown, especially since I didn't really love (Hurt Locker) or even like (King's Speech) their previous works. But I wonder if Argo peaked a touch too early... ZDT will not be as rousingly crowd-pleasing because it seems pretty obvious it's not funny like Argo is, but seems like it treads similar old-school vibes of just telling a compelling story well. Again, I think you are right-on in the reasons why Hooper (or Bigelow) won't win, but I think we're gonna see it happen. Les Miz is the sort of thing the Academy just eats up these days.


Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:55 pm
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
Best Animated Film: If there's any justice, it's Rise of the Guardians. I think we're going to get five nominations again, so I guess Paranorman, Brave, Frankenweenie and The Rabbi's Cat will out fill the category. Wreck-It Ralph also stands a good chance at nomination. I don't think The Secret World of Arrietty is eligible since it came out in 2010 in Japan.

Rise of the Guardians also has the best score of the year, but Skyfall will probably get it, which is okay. Guardians also has a candidate for Best Song, but Skyfall should win, because it's the best.

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Sat Dec 01, 2012 3:42 am
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
I thought John Williams' score for Lincoln was great, but, like so many other aspects of this movie, it's probably too understated to make an impression next to its more obvious competitors.

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Sat Dec 01, 2012 4:16 am
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
If Brave is nominated for best animated feature then it will only be because it came from Pixar and certainly not because of quality since it's easily Pixar's worst movie and definitely shouldn't be nominated. I haven't seen Wreck it Ralph, Frankenweenie or ParaNorman yet but I'd bet money that those three are infinitely better than Brave. Probably Rise of the Guardians and Secret World of Airrety and I don't even like anime films in general! Or stop motion either.


Sun Dec 02, 2012 1:52 am
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
ilovemovies wrote:
If Brave is nominated for best animated feature then it will only be because it came from Pixar and certainly not because of quality since it's easily Pixar's worst movie and definitely shouldn't be nominated.


Disagreed. It's probably their most risky and inventive narrative that's pulled off with a heavy investment in their visuals. It's not only the best animated movie I've seen this year, but likely one of the 10 best movies of the year.


Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:17 pm
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
ilovemovies wrote:
If Brave is nominated for best animated feature then it will only be because it came from Pixar and certainly not because of quality since it's easily Pixar's worst movie and definitely shouldn't be nominated. I haven't seen Wreck it Ralph, Frankenweenie or ParaNorman yet but I'd bet money that those three are infinitely better than Brave. Probably Rise of the Guardians and Secret World of Airrety and I don't even like anime films in general! Or stop motion either.


I'm not a huge admirer of Brave mostly because the story is weak. I like all the movies you mentioned better, but it's better than Hotel Transylvania, Pirates!, and The Lorax. (And probably miles better than Madagascar 3 and the Ice Age movie.)

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Sun Dec 02, 2012 8:25 pm
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
I've heard a lot of complaints about Brave's story being weak. I'd like someone to explain what that means a little more specifically. I think it's really smart, creative, and much riskier than many of Pixar's other narratives.


Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:36 am
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
NY Film Critics Awards announced

Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, "Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner, "Lincoln"

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"

Best Actress: Rachel Weisz, "The Deep Blue Sea"

Best Foreign Language Film: "Amour"

Best Animated Feature: "Frankenweenie"

Best Supporting Actor: Matthew McConaughey, "Magic Mike" and "Bernie"

Best Supporting Actress: Sally Field, "Lincoln"

Best Cinematography: Greig Fraser, "Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Documentary: Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, David McMahon, "The Central Park Five"

Best First Feature: David France, "How to Survive a Plague"


Mon Dec 03, 2012 4:22 pm
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
NY critics voting system sounds a bit complicated

http://blogs.artinfo.com/moviejournal/2 ... y-lincoln/


Mon Dec 03, 2012 8:55 pm
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
National Board of Review awards, wow Zero Dark Thirty is really separating from the pack

Best Film
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty

Best Supporting Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained

Best Supporting Actress
Ann Dowd - Compliance

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty

Best Original Screenplay
Looper

Best Adapted Screenplay
Silver Linings Playbook

Best Foreign Language Film
Amour

Best Documentary
Searching for Sugarman


Wed Dec 05, 2012 3:55 pm
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
LA Film Critics

Picture: "Amour"
Runner-up: "The Master"

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, "The Master"
Runner-up: Kathryn Bigelow, "Zero Dark Thirty"

Actor: Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"
Runner-up: Denis Lavant, "Holy Motors"

Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook" and Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour" (tie)

Supporting actress: Amy Adams, "The Master"
Runner-up: Anne Hathaway, "The Dark Knight Rises" and "Les Miserables"

Supporting actor: Dwight Henry, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Runner-up: Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"

Screenplay: Chris Terrio, "Argo"
Runner-up: David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook"

Foreign-language film: "Holy Motors"
Runner-up: "Footnote"

Documentary/non-fiction film: "The Gatekeepers"
Runner-up: "Searching for Sugar Man"

Animation: "Frankenweenie"
Runner-up: "It's Such a Beautiful Day"


Mon Dec 10, 2012 2:46 pm
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
Golden Globe noms are out

BEST MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
"Argo"
"Django Unchained"
"Life of Pi"
"Lincoln"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

BEST MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY
"The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
"Les Miserables"
"Moonrise Kingdom"
"Salmon Fishing in the Yemen"
"Silver Linings Playbook"

BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"
Marion Cotillard - "Rust and Bone"
Helen Mirren - "Hitchcock"
Naomi Watts - "The Impossible"
Rachel Weisz - "The Deep Blue Sea"

BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln"
Richard Gere - "Arbitrage"
John Hawkes - "The Sessions"
Joaquin Phoenix - "The Master"
Denzel Washington - "Flight"

BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Emily Blunt - "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen"
Judi Dench - "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Maggie Smith - "Quartet"
Meryl Streep - "Hope Springs"

BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE, MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Jack Black - "Bernie"
Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Hugh Jackman - "Les Miserables"
Ewan McGregor - "Salmon Fishing In The Yemen"
Bill Murray - "Hyde Park On Hudson"

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
"Brave"
"Frankenweenie"
"Hotel Transylvania"
"Rise Of The Guardians"
"Wreck-It Ralph"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE
Amy Adams - "The Master"
Sally Field - "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway - "Les Miserables"
Helen Hunt - "The Sessions"
Nicole Kidman - "The Paperboy"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE
Alan Arkin - "Argo"
Leonardo DiCaprio - "Django Unchained"
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln"
Christoph Waltz - "Django Unchained"

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
Ben Affleck - "Argo"
Kathryn Bigelow - "Zero Dark Thirty"
Ang Lee - "Life of Pi"
Quentin Tarantino - "Django Unchained"
Steven Spielberg - "Lincoln"

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
"Silver Linings Playbook" by David O. Russell
"Zero Dark Thirty" by Mark Boal
"Argo" by Chris Terrio
"Lincoln" by Tony Kushner
"Django Unchained" by Quentin Tarantino


Thu Dec 13, 2012 1:57 pm
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
Hmmm, I guess these nominations are pretty good for the Golden Globes. They didn't pick anything overly egregious for anything and their inclusions makes me happier than their exclusions. Yeah, Moonrise Kingdom got shut out of the screenplay and score categories, but I can't deny its presence in the picture category. Given, it's easier to get a nomination as a musical or comedy, but still. It's also nice to see Jack Black get a notice for Bernie. That probably won't go too far in making him an Oscar nominee, but every little bit helps.

It's not the 100% on Rotten that's getting my attention; it's the average rating. Zero Dark Thirty only has thirty reviews, but you don't see an average rating of 9/10 very often. That's not the only indicator of quality or even Oscar success, of course, but that plus its recent wins in various critics circles plus intangibles, I feel fairly confident in calling Zero Dark Thirty the frontrunner to win lots o' shit. Argo, Les Miz, Lincoln, Django, beh!

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Thu Dec 13, 2012 2:22 pm
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
By Golden Globes standards, that's actually a pretty solid list of nominees. Nothing really stands out negatively like in previous years, although there are a couple choices that seem a little odd (Salmon Fishing In The Yemen?). Good to see Richard Gere getting recognized for his strong work in Arbitrage.

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Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:13 pm
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Post Re: 2013 Oscar Buzz
Blonde Almond wrote:
By Golden Globes standards, that's actually a pretty solid list of nominees. Nothing really stands out negatively like in previous years, although there are a couple choices that seem a little odd (Salmon Fishing In The Yemen?). Good to see Richard Gere getting recognized for his strong work in Arbitrage.
McGregor and Blunt's nominations are okay. Meryl Streep's is a lot more questionable. I'm surprised Hotel Transylvania beat out ParaNorman for an animation spot. The latter's clearly the better film.

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Thu Dec 13, 2012 7:03 pm
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