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The Official Berardinelli Oscar 2009 predictions... 
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Post The Official Berardinelli Oscar 2009 predictions...
... will appear in ReelThoughts on Tuesday, February 17. But I'll go out on a limb and post a few of them here beforehand. I'll lock this topic once the ReelThoughts is available to avoid confusion about where to post. Remember, these are predictions of who/what will win, not necessarily who/what I believe should win.

Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle
Actor: Sean Penn
Actress: Kate Winslet
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis


Mon Feb 16, 2009 2:45 pm
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Post Re: The Official Berardinelli Oscar 2009 predictions...
Here's Mine..

Picture:Will Win..Slumdog Millionaire.....Should Win...Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director:Will Win:Danny Boyle.....Should Win...Danny Boyle..
Best Actor:Will Win: Sean Penn....Should Win...Mickey Rourke
Best Actress:Will Win Kate Winslet...Should Win...Meryl Streep
Supporting Actor:Will Win...Heath Ledger...Should Win...Heath Ledger
Supporting Actress:Will Win...Tajiah Henson...Should Win...Amy Adams

Supporting Actress was by far the one I struggled with the most on both Will and Should....Very Strong Category that I think all 5 are really neck and neck..nothing will surprise me there


Mon Feb 16, 2009 2:53 pm
Post Re: The Official Berardinelli Oscar 2009 predictions...
When it comes to predicting the Oscars, you can't go wrong with Colbert's picks. He has gotten these right every single time.

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke
Best Actress: Kate Winslet
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz

However, it is the technical categories that interest me the most. Wall-E is pretty much certain to win for animated film and one of the sound awards (I'm betting sound editing). I also think the two Slumdog songs will split, giving Peter Gabriel the edge. And the screenplay categories are usually where they go for more daring and quirky choices (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless, Fargo, Pulp Fiction, Talk to Her come to mind), so don't be too surprised Wall-E wins for original screenplay. Benjamin Button will pretty much be left with technicals (deservedly so) for its magnificent makeup, visual effects, art direction and cinematography.


Mon Feb 16, 2009 2:58 pm
Post Re: The Official Berardinelli Oscar 2009 predictions...
I agree with the nominations for the Oscars for the most part, but here are two of my problems:
Leonardo Dicaprio was much better in Revolutionary Road than Brad Pitt was in Curious Case
The Wrestler and Revolutionary Road should have been nominated for best picture over Milk and The Reader

my predictions:
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke
Best Actress: Anne Hathaway
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Supportin Actress: Viola Davis
Directing: Slumdog Millionaire


Mon Feb 16, 2009 6:57 pm
Post Re: The Official Berardinelli Oscar 2009 predictions...
People were telling me that The Curious Case of Benjamin Button received 13 nominations...that it's bound to win a slew of awards....ummm... so what? Remember The Fellowship of the Ring which got 13 nominations, and won just 4?? Anyways, I think CCOBB will win about three to four awards, all in the technical awards: it's locked for best makeup and visual effects..it's probably going to grab art direction and cinematography as well. I can see Slumdog Millioanaire winning 6 awards: picture, director, adapted screenplay, film editing, song, score. If it's going to lose one out here, it's going to be best song, but there's a high possibility it could pick up one of the sound categories, or maybe steal cinematography from the CCOBB. Hell, it could win as much as 9 awards! (Can't wing song twice!) But it's going to be a HUGE winner!

The Wrestler is going to win for an acting award, just not for best actor...Marisa Tomei seems poised to win her 2nd Oscar here. The supporting categories are usually those which pull off a surprising winner. Take 2007 when Tilda Swinton won, and Amy Ryan had been the frontrunner for nearly the entire season. There is going to be no surprised in the supporting actor category, so they're going to make up for it in the supporting actress. And as Much as the Academy likes a comeback, I'm not sure they think of Rourke's "comeback" as a bonafide one. Sean Penn is going to win. And don't say he recently won the award. He won in 2004. That was five years ago. If Hilary Swank can win twice in five years, Spacey in four years, Foster in three years and Hanks consecutively, then why can't Penn?
Below is what WILL win. In brackets is what SHOULD win.
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire (Milk)
Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire (Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire)
Best Actor: Sean Penn, Milk (Mikey Rourke, The Wrestler)
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader (Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married)
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight)
Best Supporting Actress: Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler (Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler)
Best Original Screenplay: Milk (In Bruges)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire (Slumdog Millionaire)
Best FIlm Editing: Slumdog Millionaire (Slumdog Millionaire)
Best Cinematography: CCOBB (The Dark Knight)
Best Art Direction: CCOBB (The Dark Knight)
Best Costume Design: The Duchess (The Duchess)
Best Makeup: CCOBB (CCOBB)
Best Song: Jai Ho, Slumdog Millionaire (Jai Ho, Slumdog Millionaire)
Best Score: Slumdog Millionaire (Defiance)
Best Sound Editing: The Dark Knight (The Dark Knight)
Best Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight (The Dark Knight)
Best Visual Effects: CCOBB (CCOBB)


Mon Feb 16, 2009 9:30 pm
Post Re: The Official Berardinelli Oscar 2009 predictions...
James Berardinelli wrote:
... will appear in ReelThoughts on Tuesday, February 17. But I'll go out on a limb and post a few of them here beforehand. I'll lock this topic once the ReelThoughts is available to avoid confusion about where to post. Remember, these are predictions of who/what will win, not necessarily who/what I believe should win.

Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle
Actor: Sean Penn
Actress: Kate Winslet
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis


Why lock the topic?

:?.

Anyway, agree with you on the first two. Not too sure about the third. I think Mickey Rourke has a good chance. I'm hoping Kate Winslet doesn't win. I don't think that movie deserves any Oscars. Plus, don't anyone try and insult my intelligence by saying, "Oh God, who's the other one?" wasn't deliberate. That was just rude and uncalled for.


Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:21 am
Post Re: The Official Berardinelli Oscar 2009 predictions...
Oh......

the eternal I hope versus I think thing. It's the same with the Oscars and the same with life. It's very dangerous with business and eternally entertaining in sport.

I think you're right but I hope you're wrong, but you think the same. I think the Oscars are increasingly worthless but I continually hope I'm wrong.

I think the reason James might be rightly locking this thread is his impending reel view tomorrow

Rob


Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:33 am
Post Re: The Official Berardinelli Oscar 2009 predictions...
Robert Holloway wrote:
Oh......

the eternal I hope versus I think thing. It's the same with the Oscars and the same with life. It's very dangerous with business and eternally entertaining in sport.

I think you're right but I hope you're wrong, but you think the same. I think the Oscars are increasingly worthless but I continually hope I'm wrong.

I think the reason James might be rightly locking this thread is his impending reel view tomorrow

Rob


Oh yeah, I forgot about the ReelThoughts section.


Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:49 am
Post Re: The Official Berardinelli Oscar 2009 predictions...
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
Best Actress: Kate Winslet – The Reader
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Director: Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Best Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy – Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black – Milk
Best Animated Feature: Wall-E
Best Foreign Film: Waltz With Bashir
Best Documentary Film: Man On Wire
Best Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Costumes: The Duchess
Best Original Score: A.R. Rahman – Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Song: Jai-Ho – Slumdog Millionaire
Best Make-Up: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Sound Editing: Wall-E
Best Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight

I have no clue what short films are going to win.


Tue Feb 17, 2009 3:07 am
Post Re: The Official Berardinelli Oscar 2009 predictions...
As every time with the Oscars I'm at the disadvantage of not having seen most of the movies. But Oscars is often less about quality than popularity and politics, so I'll take my best guesses.

Performance by an actor in a leading role: Sean Penn in "Milk"
Penn already got the Actor, I guess he'll also get the Oscar. They'll cut his speech short by music.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role: Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight"
Deserved or not, it's a 99% chance that Ledger will win this category.

Performance by an actress in a leading role: Kate Winslet in "The Reader"
The voters probably will think that Winslet is long overdue.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role: Penélope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Mainly a matter of popularity. Also Tomei already has one.

Best animated feature film of the year: "WALL-E"
I think something is wrong if WALL-E doesn't win. But the Oscars never have been totally right.

Achievement in art direction: "The Duchess"
My expertise definately isn't art direction, so this is a wild guess.

Achievement in cinematography: "The Dark Knight"
Filmed partly in IMAX? This has to be an Oscar!

Achievement in costume design: "The Duchess"
Voters just seem to love those old dresses...

Achievement in directing: "Slumdog Millionaire"
Popularity.

Best documentary feature: ???
Best documentary short subject: ???

Absolutely no idea on these two.

Achievement in film editing: "The Dark Knight"
Another wild guess.

Best foreign language film of the year: "The Class"
Right, wild guess.

Achievement in makeup: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
I'm not sure how much is actual make-up and how much CGI, but I guess this year they'll vote on the "subtle" make-up instead of the full-blown in Hellboy.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score): "Slumdog Millionaire"
My personal choice probably would be WALL-E, but in recent years there has been a tendency to ethnic music.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song): "Down to Earth" from "WALL-E"
Going with my personal pick this time.

Best motion picture of the year: "Slumdog Millionaire"
Again, follow the hype.

Best animated short film: ???
Best live action short film: ???

My mind is blank.

Achievement in sound editing: "WALL-E"
Ben Burtt should win in the category that was originally added because of him, but I could be wrong.

Achievement in sound mixing: "The Dark Knight"
Sound mixing typically goes to action movies, and since I don't know Wanted...

Achievement in visual effects: "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
As with make-up they'll probably choose subtley this year.

Adapted screenplay: "Doubt"
Wild guess...

Original screenplay: "Milk"
Written by someone who know Milk personally, that must be a bonus.


Tue Feb 17, 2009 8:51 am
Post Re: The Official Berardinelli Oscar 2009 predictions...
My 2 cents (non-refundable):


" There is no way Sean Penn leaves with a second Oscar. Thank you, thank you. "


Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:32 pm
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Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 10:55 pm
Posts: 3118
Location: Mount Laurel, NJ, USA
Post Re: The Official Berardinelli Oscar 2009 predictions...
This topic has been locked. You can continue debating my Oscar predictions, and add your own, at the thread for the February 17, 2009 ReelThoughts.


Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:35 pm
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