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March 26, 2009: "Alternate Energy" 
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Post March 26, 2009: "Alternate Energy"
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Thu Mar 26, 2009 8:36 pm
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Post Re: March 26, 2009: "Alternate Energy"
One factor that might be playing into the increased box office is the continuing success of Slumdog Millionaire - despite being in its 19th week in release, it was 8th this weekend, and 6th the previous weekend.

Looking at last year, there was really no similar Oscar holdover.

Since this is typically the season of the dregs, that one film might be making the difference.


Thu Mar 26, 2009 9:02 pm
Gaffer

Joined: Thu Mar 26, 2009 9:21 pm
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Post Re: March 26, 2009: "Alternate Energy"
The only movies I am looking forward to this spring/summer season are Trek, Wolvie, and Transformers. Trek is the only must see of the three for me.


Thu Mar 26, 2009 9:25 pm
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Post Re: March 26, 2009: "Alternate Energy"
Hi there

Here is some data from a thread I've been running on a thread on Box Office Mojo.

The delta between 2008 and 2009 is too big to be explained by one movie. However, March is not doing so well. Bottom line we have had two stellar months followed by a disappointment. hardly a major shift.

Comparisons versus 2008:

January : 2008 - $841.1m vs 2009 - $1014.4m *NEW RECORD*

February : 2008 - $695.3m vs 2009 - $768.5m *NEW RECORD*

March : 2008 - $534.0m ($683.0m) vs 2009 - $464.6m - we are down by 15%

YTD : 2008 - 2070.4m vs 2009 - 2247.5m - only up by 8% now

There's no question that March has been severely hit by the under performance of Watchmen and the so so showing from Return to Witch Mountain. The only way back to respectability is MvA giving us a huge opening weekend and beating all predictions on the Derby.

Balance of March scenario:

Wednesday and Thursday $15m
Weekend $150m
Monday and Tuesday $20m

$650m is still possible

Rob


Thu Mar 26, 2009 10:07 pm
Post Re: March 26, 2009: "Alternate Energy"
What exactly do we mean by "...with things so bleak in the real world, escapism is needed,..."?

I am assuming that this means there are more viewers "available?" If one has been laid off from a job, has sent (n+1) resumes for applications and waiting for something to happen, then its likely that person goes for a few hours of escape. This makes sense, and especially if a person is a movie lover - even more so. For those lucky enough to have a job, its business as usual. Sure the stock market has tanked, everyday you see n number of people "being made redundant" in some company.. and so forth; but their life so far has not changed from pre-September 2008 days.

But are the number of people "now available" enough to justify this? Using Mr. Holloway's figures for January, this is about 17.3 million additional viewers with an avg ticket price of $10. Maybe? i don't have the exact numbers...


Fri Mar 27, 2009 4:41 pm
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Post Re: March 26, 2009: "Alternate Energy"
Polar Bear wrote:
What exactly do we mean by "...with things so bleak in the real world, escapism is needed,..."?

I am assuming that this means there are more viewers "available?" If one has been laid off from a job, has sent (n+1) resumes for applications and waiting for something to happen, then its likely that person goes for a few hours of escape. This makes sense, and especially if a person is a movie lover - even more so. For those lucky enough to have a job, its business as usual. Sure the stock market has tanked, everyday you see n number of people "being made redundant" in some company.. and so forth; but their life so far has not changed from pre-September 2008 days.

But are the number of people "now available" enough to justify this? Using Mr. Holloway's figures for January, this is about 17.3 million additional viewers with an avg ticket price of $10. Maybe? i don't have the exact numbers...


It's more broad-based. Movies have become the entertainment source of choice for those who want to go out because people are unwilling to spend the kinds of dollars it takes to go to a hockey game, basketball game, concert, or live show. Even those who still have jobs are concerned they could lose those jobs, and that makes them cautious. A family of four can see Paul Blart for about $60 (including concessions). There's no other source of winter entertainment close to that economic level.

It will be interesting to see whether Minor League Baseball (for which tickets are similarly priced to those of movies) will impact the summer movie box office. Not that it will be easy to make such a determination.


Fri Mar 27, 2009 5:15 pm
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Post Re: March 26, 2009: "Alternate Energy"
It's an interesting topic. With people feeling the need to choose, will they choose cinema, or will something else reign supreme?

Cinema is hardly cheap, but weighed against other alternatives, it may still win the economic war raging in peoples heads. The Minor League Baseball is, of course, really only an alternative in the states, however, and so it'd be interesting to see whether the UK market makes up larger percentages of gross totals than usual, owing to all the major sports ending in May.


Sun Mar 29, 2009 5:19 pm
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