Discussion of movies and ReelThoughts topics

It is currently Wed Oct 22, 2014 5:11 am




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 16 posts ] 
March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office" 
Author Message
Site Admin

Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 10:55 pm
Posts: 3167
Location: Mount Laurel, NJ, USA
Post March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
Click here to read topic.


Tue Mar 17, 2009 4:53 pm
Profile WWW
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
But Paul Blart's run is inexplicable usually Kevin James had Sandler or Will Smith to make high-grossing movies.

And Taken to be as successful as it is is also inexplicable, sure everyone likes Liam Neeson kicking ass but how the hell is it just juggernaut...but then again, the last time I remember Neeson kicking ass was Phantom Menace so I guess there is something there.


Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:37 pm
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
James, when you said that the reaspn Taken is doing so well is because of good marketing, I have to disagree. I watch a reasonable amount of tv and I read newpapers and magazines and I have not seen anything on the film. I believe this is a classic case of word-of-mouth. The film is entertaining and it is in a genre that hasn't had a quality product like this in a while. This is the primary reason I think.


Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:58 pm
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
ThaWayne wrote:
James, when you said that the reaspn Taken is doing so well is because of good marketing, I have to disagree. I watch a reasonable amount of tv and I read newpapers and magazines and I have not seen anything on the film. I believe this is a classic case of word-of-mouth. The film is entertaining and it is in a genre that hasn't had a quality product like this in a while. This is the primary reason I think.

Really? I saw numerous trailers for this movie, both on TV and on sites like Hulu. It had a great trailer. I agree with James that it was the marketing of this film that made it a hit.


Tue Mar 17, 2009 8:35 pm
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
mkratzer21 wrote:
ThaWayne wrote:
James, when you said that the reaspn Taken is doing so well is because of good marketing, I have to disagree. I watch a reasonable amount of tv and I read newpapers and magazines and I have not seen anything on the film. I believe this is a classic case of word-of-mouth. The film is entertaining and it is in a genre that hasn't had a quality product like this in a while. This is the primary reason I think.

Really? I saw numerous trailers for this movie, both on TV and on sites like Hulu. It had a great trailer. I agree with James that it was the marketing of this film that made it a hit.

I agree - the marketing was done quite well.

I loved the first trailer- instead of a typical montage of the best parts of the movie, it featured one scene of Liam Neeson talking on the phone, showing off his acting chops and delivering some chilling lines. That sold me on giving the movie a chance.


Tue Mar 17, 2009 8:38 pm
Site Admin

Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 10:55 pm
Posts: 3167
Location: Mount Laurel, NJ, USA
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
ThaWayne wrote:
James, when you said that the reaspn Taken is doing so well is because of good marketing, I have to disagree. I watch a reasonable amount of tv and I read newpapers and magazines and I have not seen anything on the film. I believe this is a classic case of word-of-mouth. The film is entertaining and it is in a genre that hasn't had a quality product like this in a while. This is the primary reason I think.


I watch almost no TV and remember seeing this trailer several times, and thinking how well-done it was. If I wasn't a film critic and hadn't already planned to see the film, this would have pushed me into seeing it. In fact, after seeing the trailer, I went from luke-warm to pretty excited to see the movie. It didn't live up to expectations, but that's another issue.


Tue Mar 17, 2009 9:46 pm
Profile WWW
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
"Taken" is a very odd case

It was available in 720 and 1080p for HD download weeks before the US release and on 480p / DVD well over a month before.

Many people on other forums believe that hundreds of thousands of people had seen the movie before it was released in the US and all of them loved the film. The theory goes that they started telling (WOM) people how good it was. and helped the studio stoke the fire.

Taken has had an unusual BO curve in that it is already at 5x it's opening weekend ($125/25) and still in the top 5. This suggests that WOM has been sensational. The studio has hardly been heavily marketing it for six weeks.

Rob


Tue Mar 17, 2009 11:11 pm
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
Terminator Salvation is likely to make quite a box office total as well. It probably won't reach Transformers 2 or HP6, but it should make decent amounts. Christian Bale being in it does help.


Tue Mar 17, 2009 11:22 pm
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
Hi there

A group of us on BOM are running a daily analysis of 2009 BO versus previous years

January and February were records by a considerable margin

March is about 5% behind 2008

Year to date we are running at about 12% ahead of 2008.

The reality is that years are made and broken in May through August.

2009 needs a Dark Knight, Iron man and Indy if it's going to keep running ahead.

We are betting big on Transformers, Harry Potter and others. It will be close

Rob


Tue Mar 17, 2009 11:38 pm
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
I figure that Terminator 2 could be the highest grossing movie of the year, but to do that it would have to beat T2's sales, which will be very difficult. If it ends up being reviewed well, people will flock to it. Harry Potter will make ~ 290 million. Star Trek won't make much more than 120, and even that would make it the best selling Star Trek movie of all time (though not when adjusted for inflation, and ticket price increases). There are other 100 million + makers, including Fast and the Furious, Wolverine, Night at the Museum, Land of the Lost, Year One, GI Joe, and Saw VI. But I just hope there are some -good- movies released this summer.

One of the issues people on the outside have, is that we can only 'guess' at how much a movie has made. Box Office Mojo, apparently, is often very wrong.


Wed Mar 18, 2009 7:12 am
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
SFB wrote:
I figure that Terminator 2 could be the highest grossing movie of the year, but to do that it would have to beat T2's sales, which will be very difficult. If it ends up being reviewed well, people will flock to it. Harry Potter will make ~ 290 million. Star Trek won't make much more than 120, and even that would make it the best selling Star Trek movie of all time (though not when adjusted for inflation, and ticket price increases). There are other 100 million + makers, including Fast and the Furious, Wolverine, Night at the Museum, Land of the Lost, Year One, GI Joe, and Saw VI. But I just hope there are some -good- movies released this summer.

One of the issues people on the outside have, is that we can only 'guess' at how much a movie has made. Box Office Mojo, apparently, is often very wrong.


Fast and Furious & Saw VI making a $100 million? I would love to hear your logic considering that none of the Saws have made $90 million, let alone $100 million, and Fast and Furious is now part of a dead franchise that people laugh at.

And beating T2's gross for Salvation isn't THAT difficult anymore.


Wed Mar 18, 2009 11:24 am
Site Admin

Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 10:55 pm
Posts: 3167
Location: Mount Laurel, NJ, USA
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
Patrick wrote:
Fast and Furious & Saw VI making a $100 million? I would love to hear your logic considering that none of the Saws have made $90 million, let alone $100 million, and Fast and Furious is now part of a dead franchise that people laugh at.


I think it unlikely but not impossible that Fast and Furious could hit the $100 million mark. The release date is in its favor, but it will have to clear $50-60 million on its first weekend, which seems too high. There's no way that Saw VI will come close to $100 million. $60 million might be overly optimistic. That series has been bled to death. It's no longer of a case of the movies being bad - even most of the fans have given up on it.


Wed Mar 18, 2009 2:07 pm
Profile WWW
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
I think F&F has a good chance of doing so with Diesel and Walker back in the picture. But I misspoke on Saw.

You all might be interested in this book on hollywood economics.

http://www.amazon.com/Hollywood-Economi ... 0415312612


Wed Mar 18, 2009 2:44 pm
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
SFB wrote:
I figure that Terminator 2 could be the highest grossing movie of the year, but to do that it would have to beat T2's sales, which will be very difficult. If it ends up being reviewed well, people will flock to it. Harry Potter will make ~ 290 million. Star Trek won't make much more than 120, and even that would make it the best selling Star Trek movie of all time (though not when adjusted for inflation, and ticket price increases). There are other 100 million + makers, including Fast and the Furious, Wolverine, Night at the Museum, Land of the Lost, Year One, GI Joe, and Saw VI. But I just hope there are some -good- movies released this summer.

One of the issues people on the outside have, is that we can only 'guess' at how much a movie has made. Box Office Mojo, apparently, is often very wrong.


Up will probably make it over 100 million, and will most likely be good. Star Trek will probably get more than that because of JJ Abrams, and Terminator Salvation (depending on the reviews) will either be one of the biggest movies of the year or a moderate Incredible-Hulk-like moderate success.


Wed Mar 18, 2009 4:25 pm
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
SFB wrote:
I think F&F has a good chance of doing so with Diesel and Walker back in the picture. But I misspoke on Saw.

You all might be interested in this book on hollywood economics.

http://www.amazon.com/Hollywood-Economi ... 0415312612


Sounds interesting, I'll check it out when I go book browsing whenever I do that.


Wed Mar 18, 2009 5:02 pm
Post Re: March 17, 2009: "Figuring Out the 2009 Box Office"
James Berardinelli wrote:
ThaWayne wrote:
James, when you said that the reaspn Taken is doing so well is because of good marketing, I have to disagree. I watch a reasonable amount of tv and I read newpapers and magazines and I have not seen anything on the film. I believe this is a classic case of word-of-mouth. The film is entertaining and it is in a genre that hasn't had a quality product like this in a while. This is the primary reason I think.


I watch almost no TV and remember seeing this trailer several times, and thinking how well-done it was. If I wasn't a film critic and hadn't already planned to see the film, this would have pushed me into seeing it. In fact, after seeing the trailer, I went from luke-warm to pretty excited to see the movie. It didn't live up to expectations, but that's another issue.


I am refering not to its initial release, but to subsequent weekends where it has faired quite well not because trailers are still up, but because word-of-mouth is good. I saw the film in a theater 3 wks after it opened and the place was packed. I know the reason could be a lack of other good films but that is often the case in theaters and the other "one good movie in theaters" dont put up the consistency numbers that Taken has.


Thu Mar 19, 2009 2:31 pm
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 16 posts ] 


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by Vjacheslav Trushkin for Free Forum/DivisionCore.
Translated by Xaphos © 2007, 2008, 2009 phpBB.fr