Discussion of movies and ReelThoughts topics

It is currently Sat Dec 27, 2014 3:33 am




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 57 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next
February 17, 2009: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions) 
Author Message
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
ydgmdlu wrote:
BrianB wrote:
jmayer wrote:
You forgot factor #4 that influences Oscar picks: whether or not the individual won before.

Sean Penn won Best Actor not too long ago (Mystic River). Therefore, Mickey Rourke will win Best Actor this year.


Didn't Tom Hanks win Best Actor two years in a row? I don't see this as a factor.

This is always a factor, except in very rare circumstances. Please feel free to name all of the other people who have won back-to-back Oscars (or Oscars within a few years of each other).


All I'm saying is that one can't shut out a nominee just because they've recently won. The fact that they have ever awarded an actor a Leading Role Oscar two years in a row at all, or even in the time span that they awarded Hilary Swank her two Leading Role awards (about 5 or 6 years apart iirc), shows that AMPAS doesn't let that influence them significantly. It may not happen often, but it happens.


Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:05 am
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
My predictions below. In brackets are what SHOULD win (if different from what I think WILL win)

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor: Mikey Rourke, The Wrestler
Best Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader (Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married)
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler (Amy Adams, Doubt)
Best Original Screenplay: Milk (Wall-E)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Best FIlm Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Cinematography: The Dark Knight
Best Art Direction: CCOBB (The Dark Knight)
Best Costume Design: The Duchess (The Duchess)
Best Makeup: CCOBB
Best Song: Jai Ho, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
Best Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
Best Visual Effects: CCOBB (The Dark Knight)
:geek:


Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:18 am
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
I hope Heath Ledger wins best supporting actor (to be honest I don't even know who else is nominated) but it would be quite amusing to see someone else win it. I feel sorry for them, it would be so awkward...


Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:23 am
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
charlie wrote:
I hope Heath Ledger wins best supporting actor (to be honest I don't even know who else is nominated) but it would be quite amusing to see someone else win it. I feel sorry for them, it would be so awkward...


yeah, probably feel like a grave robber, wouldn't they?


Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:08 am
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
aameen wrote:
charlie wrote:
I hope Heath Ledger wins best supporting actor (to be honest I don't even know who else is nominated) but it would be quite amusing to see someone else win it. I feel sorry for them, it would be so awkward...


yeah, probably feel like a grave robber, wouldn't they?


It's a shame that Heath Ledger's chances of winning an Oscar are mostly discussed in the light of his tragic death. I Thought that his performace in The Dark Knight was excellent and worthy of an award irrespective of other circumstances.


Wed Feb 18, 2009 4:34 am
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
BrianB wrote:
All I'm saying is that one can't shut out a nominee just because they've recently won. The fact that they have ever awarded an actor a Leading Role Oscar two years in a row at all, or even in the time span that they awarded Hilary Swank her two Leading Role awards (about 5 or 6 years apart iirc), shows that AMPAS doesn't let that influence them significantly. It may not happen often, but it happens.

And I was merely responding to your view that the proximity of the prior win would not be a factor. It may not be the DECIDING factor, but it's ALWAYS a factor. And it's an important factor when the race is neck-and-neck as the consensus about this year's Best Actor race believes it to be. If you were an Oscar voter, and you faced the tough choice between Penn and Rourke while staring at your ballot, wouldn't the fact that Penn won just a few years ago weigh on your mind?

We can at least agree that no contender should ever be completely discounted simply because he/she won very recently. That logic is, indeed silly.


Wed Feb 18, 2009 6:20 am
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
James's accuracy has been steadily declining these last few years. What happened?


Wed Feb 18, 2009 11:33 am
Site Admin

Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 10:55 pm
Posts: 3212
Location: Mount Laurel, NJ, USA
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
ydgmdlu wrote:
We can at least agree that no contender should ever be completely discounted simply because he/she won very recently. That logic is, indeed silly.


While I don't think a recent win discounts a nominee from taking home a statue, the perception that someone always wins may hurt them. Meryl Streep always seems to be nominated and a lot of people probably think that means she has a house full of Oscars. But she's only won twice ('80 and '83) and hasn't won in 26 years. She is accepted as one of the finests actresses of this generation and gets nominated every other year or so, but I believe there is a perception among Academy members that she has been given her due and it's time to "show some love" to a fresher face.

There's also a flip side to this - when an actor is nominated repeatedly but never seems to win. Eventually, (s)he will get the Oscar for a role that really doesn't deserve it as "payback." (Al Pacino) On those rare occasions when even that doesn't work, the Academy will go the "honorary Oscar" route. (Peter O'Toole, Charles Chaplin)


Wed Feb 18, 2009 11:37 am
Profile WWW
Site Admin

Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2009 10:55 pm
Posts: 3212
Location: Mount Laurel, NJ, USA
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
JamesBond007 wrote:
James's accuracy has been steadily declining these last few years. What happened?


The years when I did well were years when there weren't many surprises. I would assume everyone had a pretty high batting average during those years. Overall, I'm around 60% and I see no reason why that should change this year.


Wed Feb 18, 2009 11:38 am
Profile WWW
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
Don't worry, James. I'm sure that you'll do better than average this year, since your predictions are close enough to mine, and I expect to get 18-20 right this year. :)


Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:17 pm
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
I would love to see Rourke win but he is definitely not an Academy favorite, to say the least.. A .600 batting average isn't to shabby Jim, I would love to have any of my RedSox come close to that number!


Wed Feb 18, 2009 12:35 pm
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
I am ridiculed by the entire concept of studios "campaigning" for their movie to win the Oscar. It's like lobbyist playing senators and congressment attemting to exert influence - obvious I know. Is it possible we'll see in the near future a form where public opinion is factored in, in some way or another. I may sound idealistic but what if people could register on a secure website and cast a vote or have a phone in system like American Idol. Half the tally could be Academy members, and the other half for the public. I may be dreaming, I know the logistics of something like it would be ridiculous, but this would be super neat, no?


Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:43 pm
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
James Berardinelli wrote:
JamesBond007 wrote:
James's accuracy has been steadily declining these last few years. What happened?


The years when I did well were years when there weren't many surprises. I would assume everyone had a pretty high batting average during those years. Overall, I'm around 60% and I see no reason why that should change this year.


Fair enough, although I have no idea what a "high batting average" is.


Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:43 pm
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
Gandalf wrote:
I would love to see Rourke win but he is definitely not an Academy favorite, to say the least.. A .600 batting average isn't to shabby Jim, I would love to have any of my RedSox come close to that number!


Sports befuddle me.


Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:44 pm
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
euphoric_daedalus wrote:
I am ridiculed by the entire concept of studios "campaigning" for their movie to win the Oscar. It's like lobbyist playing senators and congressment attemting to exert influence - obvious I know. Is it possible we'll see in the near future a form where public opinion is factored in, in some way or another. I may sound idealistic but what if people could register on a secure website and cast a vote or have a phone in system like American Idol. Half the tally could be Academy members, and the other half for the public. I may be dreaming, I know the logistics of something like it would be ridiculous, but this would be super neat, no?


In a world that doesn't suck, yes it would.


Wed Feb 18, 2009 2:45 pm
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
JamesBond007 wrote:
Gandalf wrote:
I would love to see Rourke win but he is definitely not an Academy favorite, to say the least.. A .600 batting average isn't to shabby Jim, I would love to have any of my RedSox come close to that number!


Sports befuddle me.


A 1.000 means you hit every time, all the time aka 100%. So James .600 is a 60% success rate.


Wed Feb 18, 2009 3:11 pm
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
James,

I know you're not predicting a winner, but did you (or anyone else on the boards) see any of the short films (outside of Presto, of course)? I caught them all for the first time this past weekend and was very impressed with a couple. If they're not playing near you, iTunes is selling each of them for $2 a pop. I strongly recommend Manon on the Asphalt, one of the more emotional experiences I've had in the movies this year, and La Maison en petits cubes, a beautifully hand-drawn Japanese film. Also worthy of note were the well-done On the Line from Switzerland/Germany, and the British darkly funny This Way Up. The rest, to me, aren't necessarily worth going out of your way to see, but were interesting nonetheless.


Wed Feb 18, 2009 4:12 pm
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
yurymetelski wrote:
Why does Hollywood dislike "The Dark Knight" and "Revolutionary Road"?
I can't speak about Revolutionary Road, but the Academy has exhibited a pretty consistent prejudice against action movies and the superhero genre in recent history.

And that brings up another Heath Ledger-related point. James asks if his performance was good enough to have earned an Oscar nom if he hadn't died. My answer is that the quality of his performance would have been irrelevant. Living, he would have been passed over by the Academy due to the nature of the film, no question about it. Dead, he hasn't left them much of a choice.


Wed Feb 18, 2009 4:23 pm
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
The only pick I feel 100% on is "Wall-E" winning Best Animated Picture. As Maxim put it: "HAHAHAHA! Oh, Bolt and Panda. You must feel like Walter Mondale and John Kerry right about now."


Wed Feb 18, 2009 8:21 pm
Post Re: February 17, 2008: "Play Along at Home" (Oscar Predictions)
Rorshach wrote:
The only pick I feel 100% on is "Wall-E" winning Best Animated Picture. As Maxim put it: "HAHAHAHA! Oh, Bolt and Panda. You must feel like Walter Mondale and John Kerry right about now."

Sorry, but Slumdog Millionaire and Heath Ledger are still more locked than WALL-E is. Kung Fu Panda utterly swept the Annie Awards. Slumdog and Ledger have yet to fail a single major precursor. The Annies more strongly correlate with the Best Animated Feature category than almost any other precursor award for almost any given category.


Wed Feb 18, 2009 9:14 pm
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 57 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  Next


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by Vjacheslav Trushkin for Free Forum/DivisionCore.
Translated by Xaphos © 2007, 2008, 2009 phpBB.fr