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February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks" 
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Post February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks"
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Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:02 pm
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Post Re: February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks"
So no wins for AMERICAN HUSTLE..... Do you sense there's a backlash against the film?

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Sat Feb 22, 2014 6:54 pm
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Post Re: February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks"
KWRoss wrote:
So no wins for AMERICAN HUSTLE..... Do you sense there's a backlash against the film?


Might be. Whatever the reason, it has been losing momentum at an amazing rate. When the nominations were first announced, it was viewed by some as a frontrunner. As recently as a week ago, I thought it would win Original Screenplay. Also, it's worth noting that George Clooney is in the anti-David O. Russell camp and he has a lot of clout. So that could be a factor as well.


Sat Feb 22, 2014 11:29 pm
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Post Re: February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks"
James Berardinelli wrote:
KWRoss wrote:
So no wins for AMERICAN HUSTLE..... Do you sense there's a backlash against the film?


Might be. Whatever the reason, it has been losing momentum at an amazing rate. When the nominations were first announced, it was viewed by some as a frontrunner. As recently as a week ago, I thought it would win Original Screenplay. Also, it's worth noting that George Clooney is in the anti-David O. Russell camp and he has a lot of clout. So that could be a factor as well.

I guess Clooney's still sore over Russell's behavior on the set of Three Kings.


Sat Feb 22, 2014 11:53 pm
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Post Re: February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks"
I just saw an interview with David O. Russell where he said he and George has since made up after their on set spat. They seem to be fine. Plus, obviously without knowing him personally I can't be too sure, but he doesn't seem like the bitter/hold grudge type to me.


Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:51 am
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Post Re: February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks"
Not even a single win for American Hustle?! Gravity sweeping all the technical awards!!


Mon Feb 24, 2014 11:11 am
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Post Re: February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks"
OMG! Is this your first time guessing the whole set right? Congrats, JB!
Makes me wonder why 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture without a Best Director or even without a Best Actor. Mathew was great but Chiwetel's performance was fcuking real... every single frame throughout.


Mon Mar 03, 2014 1:35 am
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Post Re: February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks"
James.... you the man.

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Mon Mar 03, 2014 2:42 am
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Post Re: February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks"
Impressive work, JB.

I'm quite happy with the Academy's choices this year, and the event was well executed.


Mon Mar 03, 2014 3:19 am
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Post Re: February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks"
Well, I knew we were only off each other by the Documentary Feature category -- my toughest category to pick. Of all the categories, it was a year of favorites, with only three upsets knocking me off -- Documentary, and the Animated and Live Action Short Subjects.

Nicely done, sir. We'll find a way to get you next year. ;)

JB


Mon Mar 03, 2014 1:40 pm
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Post Re: February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks"
In all honesty JB just picked the "favourites" like he does every year. The difference is that this year the Oscars didn't have a SINGLE upset. I used the prediction markets for my choices and unwittingly had initially produced the EXACT same ballot as JB! Given that being pointless, I switched both Best Supporting Actress and Best Documentary features for the next lowest payouts - these being the most likely for choices for an upset. Both went to the favourites.


Mon Mar 03, 2014 4:01 pm
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Post Re: February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks"
nitrium wrote:
In all honesty JB just picked the "favourites" like he does every year. The difference is that this year the Oscars didn't have a SINGLE upset. I used the prediction markets for my choices and unwittingly had initially produced the EXACT same ballot as JB! Given that being pointless, I switched both Best Supporting Actress and Best Documentary features for the next lowest payouts - these being the most likely for choices for an upset. Both went to the favourites.


To an extent, this is true. The only one I picked that wasn't a clear favorite was in Original Screenplay. The favorite in that category was "American Hustle," although it wasn't an overwhelming favorite and, if you looked at the trends, it was dipping while "Her" was rising. Documentary was also a tough category because even though "20 Feet" was the favorite, it was overwhelmingly seen as inferior by nearly every critic. Documentary Feature and Foreign Language Film are always difficult because they aren't voted on by the Academy at large but by a committee.

When putting together an Oscar ballot, my job is to try to do the best I can and that often means sticking to the favorites. The only exceptions occur when there are no clear favorites, then you have to read what's trending and that often doesn't work. Last year was particularly difficult because Ben Affleck's absence from the Director category threw Best Picture and Director into turmoil and that had a trickle-down effect. Also, "Lincoln" inexplicably lost a lot of momentum in the last two weeks. This year, the only obvious shift was the downturn of "American Hustle," but that was predictable because of the disdain felt by certain influential members of the Academy for David O. Russell, who has burned too many bridges. His movies might win some awards but it's doubtful he (personally) ever will.


Tue Mar 04, 2014 5:37 pm
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Post Re: February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks"
Quote:
The difference is that this year the Oscars didn't have a SINGLE upset.

In actuality, I think that The Act of Killing was still the favorite up until the ceremony (but not by much) over 20 Feet from Stardom. Also, the Animated and Live Action Short winners were considered upsets, with Get a Horse! and The Voorman Problem considered favorites there (using GoldDerby.com as a source).

As on any given weekend betting on sporting events, the challenge is to find the one or two upsets that will almost always rise up. Unfortunately, I went all-favorites (except maybe for Her in Original Screenplay), and came up three short in all categories as a result.

John


Tue Mar 04, 2014 6:06 pm
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Post Re: February 22, 2014: "Berardinelli's 2014 Oscar Picks"
I heard somewhere that they were both going to celebrate the 75th aniversary for both The Wizard of Oz and Gone with the Wind. That is until they nominated 12 Years a slave. Then they realized they had a problem.


Wed Mar 05, 2014 5:14 pm
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